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This book provides a first synthetic view of an emerging area of ecology and biogeography, linking individual- and population-level processes to geographic distributions and biodiversity patterns. Problems in evolutionary ecology, macroecology, and biogeography are illuminated by this integrative view. The book focuses on correlative approaches known as ecological niche modeling, species distribution modeling, or habitat suitability modeling, which use associations between known occurrences of species and environmental variables to identify environmental conditions under which populations can be maintained. The spatial distribution of environments suitable for the species can then be estimated: a potential distribution for the species. This approach has broad applicability to ecology, evolution, biogeography, and conservation biology, as well as to understanding the geographic potential of invasive species and infectious diseases, and the biological implications of climate change. The authors lay out conceptual foundations and general principles for understanding and interpreting species distributions with respect to geography and environment. Focus is on development of niche models. While serving as a guide for students and researchers, the book also provides a theoretical framework to support future progress in the field.

How ecological niche breadth evolves is central to adaptation and speciation and has been a topic of perennial interest. Niche breadth evolution research has occurred within environmental, ecological, evolutionary, and biogeographical contexts, and although some generalities have emerged, critical knowledge gaps exist. Performance breadth trade-offs, although long invoked, may not be common determinants of niche breadth evolution or limits. Niche breadth can expand or contract from specialist or generalist lineages, and so specialization need not be an evolutionary dead end. Whether niche breadth determines diversification and distribution breadth and how niche breadth is partitioned among individuals and populations within a species are important but particularly understudied topics. Molecular genetic and phylogenetic techniques have greatly expanded understanding of niche breadth evolution, but field studies of how niche breadth evolves are essential for providing mechanistic details and allowing the development of comprehensive theory and improved prediction of biological responses under global change.

A major goal of evolutionary biology and ecology is to understand why species richness varies among clades. Previous studies have suggested that variation in richness among clades might be related to variation in rates of morphological evolution among clades (e.g., body size and shape). Other studies have suggested that richness patterns might be related to variation in rates of climatic‐niche evolution. However, few studies, if any, have tested the relative importance of these variables in explaining patterns of richness among clades. Here, we test their relative importance among major clades of Plethodontidae, the most species‐rich family of salamanders. Earlier studies have suggested that climatic‐niche evolution explains patterns of diversification among plethodontid clades, whereas rates of morphological evolution do not. A subsequent study stated that rates of morphological evolution instead explained patterns of species richness among plethodontid clades (along with “ecological limits” on richness of clades, leading to saturation of clades with species, given limited resources). However, they did not consider climatic‐niche evolution. Using phylogenetic multiple regression, we show that rates of climatic‐niche evolution explain most variation in richness among plethodontid clades, whereas rates of morphological evolution do not. We find little evidence that ecological limits explain patterns of richness among plethodontid clades. We also test whether rates of morphological and climatic‐niche evolution are correlated, and find that they are not. Overall, our results help explain richness patterns in a major amphibian group and provide possibly the first test of the relative importance of climatic niches and morphological evolution in explaining diversity patterns. A major goal of evolutionary biology is to understand why species richness varies among clades and here we test the relative importance of rates of morphological evolution and rates of climatic niche evolution in explaining patterns of richness among major clades of Plethodontidae (the most species‐rich family of salamanders). Using phylogenetic multiple regression, we show that rates of climatic‐niche evolution explain most variation in richness among plethodontid clades, whereas rates of morphological evolution do not. Overall, our results help explain richness patterns in a major amphibian group and provide possibly the first test of the relative importance of climatic niches and morphological evolution in explaining diversity patterns.

Being snapshots in time, species ranges may fall short of representing all of the geographic or environmental space that they are able to occupy. This has important implications for niche studies yet most comparative studies overlook the transient nature of species distributions and assume that they are at equilibrium. We review the methods most widely used for niche comparisons today and suggest a modified framework to describe and compare niches based on snapshot species range data. First, we introduce a new environmental space-based Niche Equivalence Statistic to test niche similarity between two species, which explicitly incorporates the spatial distribution of environments and their availability into statistical tests. We also introduce a new Background Statistic to measure the ability of this Niche Equivalence Statistic to detect differences based on the available environmental-space. These metrics enable fair comparisons between different geographies when the ranges of species are out of equilibrium. Based on distinct parameterizations of the new Equivalence and Background statistics, we then propose a Niche Divergence Test and a Niche Overlap Test, which allow assessment of whether differences between species emerge from true niche divergences. These methods are implemented in a new R package, ‘humboldt’ and applied to simulated species with pre-defined niches. The new methods improve accuracy of niche similarity and associated tests – consistently outperforming other tests. We show that the quantification of niche similarity should be performed only in environmental space, which is less sensitive than geographic space to the spatial abundance of key environmental variables. Further, our methods characterize the relationships between non-analogous and analogous climates in the species’ distributions, something not available previously. These improvements allow assessment of whether the different environmental spaces occupied by two taxa emerge from true niche evolution, as opposed to differences in life history and biological interactors, or differences in the variety and configuration of environments accessible to them.

Geographic range size has long fascinated ecologists and evolutionary biologists, yet our understanding of the factors that cause variation in range size among species and across space remains limited. Not only does geographic range size inform decisions about the conservation and management of rare and nonindigenous species due to its relationship with extinction risk, rarity, and invasiveness, but it also provides insights into fundamental processes such as dispersal and adaptation. There are several features unique to plants (e.g. polyploidy, mating system, sessile habit) that may lead to distinct mechanisms explaining variation in range size. Here, we highlight key studies testing intrinsic and extrinsic hypotheses about geographic range size under contrasting scenarios where species’ ranges are static or change over time. We then present results from a meta-analysis of the relative importance of commonly hypothesized determinants of range size in plants. We show that our ability to infer the relative importance of these determinants is limited, particularly for dispersal ability, mating system, ploidy, and environmental heterogeneity. We highlight avenues for future research that merge approaches from macroecology and evolutionary ecology to better understand how adaptation and dispersal interact to facilitate niche evolution and range expansion.

G. Evelyn Hutchinson more than a half century ago proposed that one could characterize the ecological niche of a species as an abstract mapping of population dynamics onto an environmental space, the axes of which are abiotic and biotic factors that influence birth and death rates. If a habitat has conditions within a species' niche, a population should persist without immigration from external sources, whereas if conditions are outside the niche, it faces extinction. Analyses of species' niches are essential to understanding controls on species' geographical range limits and how these limits might shift in our rapidly changing world. Recent developments in ecology and evolutionary biology suggest it is time to revisit and refine Hutchinson's niche concept. After reviewing techniques for quantifying niches, I examine subtleties that arise because of impacts species have on their own environments, the density-dependent modulation of how individuals experience environments, and the interplay of dispersal and temporal heterogeneity in determining population persistence. Moreover, the evolutionary record over all time scales reveals a spectrum of rates of change in species' niches, from rapid niche evolution to profound niche conservatism. Substantial challenges revolving around the evolutionary dimension of the Hutchinsonian niche include quantifying the magnitude of evolved intraspecific and clade-level variation in niches and understanding the factors that govern where along the spectrum of potential evolutionary rates any given lineage lies. A growing body of theory provides elements of a conceptual framework for understanding niche conservatism and evolution, paving the way for an evolutionary theory of the niche.

Niche expansion is attained by adaptations in two generalized phenotypical traits—niche position and niche width. This gives room for a wide range of conceptual ways of niche filling. The niche variation hypothesis reduces the range by predicting that expansion occurs by increasing variation in niche position, which has been debated on empirical and theoretical grounds as also other options seem possible. Here, we propose a general theory of niche expansion. We review empirical data and show with an eco-evolutionary model how resource diversity and a trade-off in resource acquisition steer niche evolution consistent with observations. We show that the range can be reduced to a discrete set of two orthogonal ways of niche filling, through (1) strict phenotypical differentiation in niche position or (2) strict individual generalization. When individual generalization is costly, niche expansion undergoes a shift from (2) to (1) at a point where the resource diversity becomes sufficiently large. Otherwise, niche expansion always follows (2), consistent with earlier results. We show that this either–or response can operate at both evolutionary and short-term time scales. This reduces the principles of niche expansion under environmental change to a notion of orthogonality, dictated by resource diversity and a resource-acquisition trade-off.

The role of behavior in evolution has long been discussed, with some arguing that behavior promotes evolution by exposing organisms to selection (behavioral drive) and others proposing that it inhibits evolution by shielding organisms from environmental variation (behavioral inertia). However, this discussion has generally focused on the effects of behavior along a single axis without considering that behavior simultaneously influences selection in various niche dimensions. By examining evolutionary change along two distinct niche axes—structural and thermal—we propose that behavior simultaneously drives and impedes evolution in a group of Anolis lizards from the Caribbean island of Hispaniola. Specifically, a behavioral shift in microhabitat to boulders at high altitude enables thermoregulation, thus forestalling physiological evolution in spite of colder environments. This same behavioral shift drives skull and limb evolution to boulder use. Our results emphasize the multidimensional effects of behavior in evolution. These findings reveal how, rather than being diametrically opposed, niche conservatism and niche lability can occur simultaneously. Furthermore, patterns of niche evolution may vary at different geographic scales: because of thermoregulatory behavior, lizards at high and low elevation share similar microclimatic niches (consistent with niche conservatism) while inhabiting distinct macroclimatic environments (consistent with niche divergence). Together, our results suggest that behavior can connect patterns of niche divergence and conservatism at different geographic scales and among traits.

Oaks (Quercus, Fagaceae) are the dominant tree genus of North America in species number and biomass, and Mexico is a global center of oak diversity. Understanding the origins of oak diversity is key to understanding biodiversity of northern temperate forests. A phylogenetic study of biogeography, niche evolution and diversification patterns in Quercus was performed using 300 samples, 146 species. Next-generation sequencing data were generated using the restriction-site associated DNA (RAD-seq) method. A time-calibrated maximum likelihood phylogeny was inferred and analyzed with bioclimatic, soils, and leaf habit data to reconstruct the biogeographic and evolutionary history of the American oaks. Our highly resolved phylogeny demonstrates sympatric parallel diversification in climatic niche, leaf habit, and diversification rates. The two major American oak clades arose in what is now the boreal zone and radiated, in parallel, from eastern North America into Mexico and Central America. Oaks adapted rapidly to niche transitions. The Mexican oaks are particularly numerous, not because Mexico is a center of origin, but because of high rates of lineage diversification associated with high rates of evolution along moisture gradients and between the evergreen and deciduous leaf habits. Sympatric parallel diversification in the oaks has shaped the diversity of North American forests.

Understanding coexistence of closely related species lies at the nexus of disentangling how historical and ecological factors govern patterns of biodiversity. The criteria determining local coexistence in close relatives have typically been, for ecologists, whether these species meet conditions of stable coexistence when competing for resources; in contrast, evolutionists often consider coexistence of close relatives from the perspective of complete reproductive isolation. Clearly, both of these conditions must be met, but for coexistence in ecologically and phenotypically similar close relatives to occur, species must overcome a diverse suite of challenges beyond just these. The goal of this review is to present a more holistic, eco-evolutionary view of the factors governing successful coexistence of close relatives, expanding our consideration to recent clade mates, not just sister taxa, and drawing on new technologies and approaches to explore more deeply this classic conundrum. We review the major concepts explaining patterns of coexistence in close relatives, distinguishing between forces related to ( a ) history, speciation, and extinction; ( b ) divergence, dispersal, and drivers of range overlap; and ( c ) successful ecological coexistence of species once in contact. We end by highlighting major gaps and ways forward, including moving beyond the strict dichotomy of local and regional scales and scrutinizing non-native introductions as analogs of secondary contact to tease apart factors contributing to coexistence in real time. By reviewing literature from both ecological and evolutionary perspectives, we hope to illustrate the multifaceted factors that drive coexistence of close relatives and to highlight new questions and approaches that might expand this age-old topic to nonsister close relatives, which often face similar challenges to coexistence as those faced by sister taxa.