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This paper is concerned with a complete asymptotic analysis as These boundary layers, which are the main center of interest of the present paper, exhibit several types of peculiar behaviour. First, the size of the boundary layer on the western and eastern boundary, which had already been computed by several authors, becomes formally very large as one approaches northern and southern portions of the boudary, i.e. pieces of the boundary on which the normal is vertical. This phenomenon is known as geostrophic degeneracy. In order to avoid such singular behaviour, previous studies imposed restrictive assumptions on the domain Moreover, when the domain Eventually, the effect of boundary layers is non-local in several aspects. On the first hand, for algebraic reasons, the boundary layer equation is radically different on the west and east parts of the boundary. As a consequence, the Sverdrup equation is endowed with a Dirichlet condition on the East boundary, and no condition on the West boundary. Therefore western and eastern boundary layers have in fact an influence on the whole domain

Between the land and ocean, diverse coastal ecosystems transform, store, and transport material. Across these interfaces, the dynamic exchange of energy and matter is driven by hydrological and hydrodynamic processes such as river and groundwater discharge, tides, waves, and storms. These dynamics regulate ecosystem functions and Earth’s climate, yet global models lack representation of coastal processes and related feedbacks, impeding their predictions of coastal and global responses to change. Here, we assess existing coastal monitoring networks and regional models, existing challenges in these efforts, and recommend a path towards development of global models that more robustly reflect the coastal interface. Coastal systems are hotspots of ecological, geochemical and economic activity, yet their dynamics are not accurately represented in global models. In this Review, Ward and colleagues assess the current state of coastal science and recommend approaches for including the coastal interface in predictive models.

Climate change in the Arctic has substantial impacts on human life and ecosystems both within and beyond the Arctic. Our analysis of CMIP6 simulations shows that some climate models project much larger Arctic climate change than other models, including changes in sea ice, ocean mixed layer, air‐sea heat flux, and surface air temperature in wintertime. In particular, dramatic enhancement of Arctic Ocean convection down to a few hundred meters is projected in these models but not in others. Interestingly, these models employ the same ocean model family (NEMO) while the choice of models for the atmosphere and sea ice varies. The magnitude of Arctic climate change is proportional to the strength of the increase in poleward ocean heat transport, which is considerably higher in this group of models. Establishing the plausibility of this group of models with high Arctic climate sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing is imperative given the implied ramifications. Plain Language Summary Arctic climate is projected to change dramatically in the future based on the latest climate models. However, there is a large discrepancy between these climate models. We find that simulated Arctic climate change tends to be much larger in models using the community ocean model “NEMO” as their ocean component. Future Arctic climate change in winter strongly depends on the strength of the increase in poleward ocean heat transport, which is considerably higher in the NEMO‐family climate models. There are some indications that this group of models can better reproduce the observed winter sea ice decline and mixed layer depth in the Barents Sea in their historical simulations. We suggest that investigating the model physics in the NEMO‐family climate models in comparison with other models may ultimately help to reduce the overall uncertainty in climate change projections. Key Points Future Arctic climate change in winter strongly depends on the strength of the increase in poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) Arctic climate change in the NEMO‐family climate models is much more pronounced NEMO‐family climate models have larger increases in poleward OHT

The capability to anticipate the exceptionally rapid warming of the Northwest Atlantic Shelf and its evolution over the next decade could enable effective mitigation for coastal communities and marine resources. However, global climate models have struggled to accurately predict this warming due to limited resolution; and past regional downscaling efforts focused on multi‐decadal projections, neglecting predictive skill associated with internal variability. We address these gaps with a high resolution (1/12°) ensemble of dynamically downscaled decadal predictions. The downscaled simulations accurately predicted past oceanic variability at scales relevant to marine resource management, with skill typically exceeding global coarse‐resolution predictions. Over the long term, warming of the Shelf is projected to continue; however, we forecast a temporary warming pause in the next decade. This predicted pause is attributed to internal variability associated with a transient, moderate strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and a southward shift of the Gulf Stream. Plain Language Summary The Northwest Atlantic Shelf is experiencing a rapid rise in ocean temperatures, one of the fastest globally, impacting the region's marine resources. Global coupled models struggle to accurately simulate this regional warming and have large uncertainties associated with the future evolution of this warming. To address this issue, we developed a high‐resolution decadal prediction system for the Northwest Atlantic Shelf which downscales global decadal predictions using a high‐resolution regional ocean model. The downscaled simulations accurately predict past oceanic variability and forecast a temporary pause in warming over the next decade due to natural changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the position of the Gulf Stream. This predictive capability could pave the way for the implementation of effective mitigation strategies, benefiting coastal communities and marine resources alike. Key Points Dynamical downscaling enhances decadal prediction skill of Northwest Atlantic Shelf sea surface temperatures A temporary respite from rapid Northwest Atlantic Shelf warming is forecast for the coming decade The forecast warming pause is attributed to a modest strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

The freshwater stored in the Arctic Ocean is an important component of the global climate system. Currently the Arctic liquid freshwater content (FWC) has reached a record high since the beginning of the last century. In this study we use numerical simulations to investigate the impact of sea ice decline on the Arctic liquid FWC and its spatial distribution. The global unstructured-mesh ocean general circulation model Finite Element Sea Ice–Ocean Model (FESOM) with 4.5-km horizontal resolution in the Arctic region is applied. The simulations show that sea ice decline increases the FWC by freshening the ocean through sea ice meltwater and modifies upper ocean circulation at the same time. The two effects together significantly increase the freshwater stored in the Amerasian basin and reduce its amount in the Eurasian basin. The salinification of the upper Eurasian basin is mainly caused by the reduction in the proportion of Pacific Water and the increase in that of Atlantic Water (AW). Consequently, the sea ice decline did not significantly contribute to the observed rapid increase in the Arctic total liquid FWC. However, the changes in the Arctic freshwater spatial distribution indicate that the influence of sea ice decline on the ocean environment is remarkable. Sea ice decline increases the amount of Barents Sea branch AW in the upper Arctic Ocean, thus reducing its supply to the deeper Arctic layers. This study suggests that all the dynamical processes sensitive to sea ice decline should be taken into account when understanding and predicting Arctic changes.

A long simulation over the period 1901–2010 with an eddy-permitting ocean circulation model is used to study the variability of the upper layer circulation in the North Ionian Gyre (NIG) in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea (EMed). The model is driven by the atmospheric forcing from the twentieth century reanalysis data set ERA-20C, ensuring a consistent performance of the model over the entire simulation period. The main modes of variability known in the EMed, in particular the decadal reversals of the NIG upper layer circulation observed since the late 1980s are well reproduced. We find that the simulated NIG upper layer circulation prior to the observational period is characterized by long-lasting cyclonic phases with weak variability during years 1910–1940 and 1960–1985, while in the in-between period (1940–1960) quasi-decadal NIG circulation reversals occur with similar characteristics to those observed in the recent decades. Our simulation indicates that the NIG upper layer circulation is rather prone to the cyclonic mode with occasional kicks to the anticyclonic mode. The coherent variability of the NIG upper layer circulation mode and of the Adriatic Deep Water (AdDW) outflow implies that atmospheric forcing triggering strong AdDW formation is required to kick the NIG into an anticyclonic circulation 1–2 years later. A sensitivity experiment mimicking a cold winter event over the Adriatic Sea supports this hypothesis. Our simulation shows that it is the multi-decadal variability of the salinity in the Adriatic Sea that leads to periods where low salinity prevents strong AdDW formation events. This explains the absence of quasi-decadal NIG reversals during 1910–1940 and 1960–1985.

We document the configuration and emergent simulation features from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) OM4.0 ocean/sea ice model. OM4 serves as the ocean/sea ice component for the GFDL climate and Earth system models. It is also used for climate science research and is contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project. The ocean component of OM4 uses version 6 of the Modular Ocean Model and the sea ice component uses version 2 of the Sea Ice Simulator, which have identical horizontal grid layouts (Arakawa C‐grid). We follow the Coordinated Ocean‐sea ice Reference Experiments protocol to assess simulation quality across a broad suite of climate‐relevant features. We present results from two versions differing by horizontal grid spacing and physical parameterizations: OM4p5 has nominal 0.5° spacing and includes mesoscale eddy parameterizations and OM4p25 has nominal 0.25° spacing with no mesoscale eddy parameterization. Modular Ocean Model version 6 makes use of a vertical Lagrangian‐remap algorithm that enables general vertical coordinates. We show that use of a hybrid depth‐isopycnal coordinate reduces the middepth ocean warming drift commonly found in pure z* vertical coordinate ocean models. To test the need for the mesoscale eddy parameterization used in OM4p5, we examine the results from a simulation that removes the eddy parameterization. The water mass structure and model drift are physically degraded relative to OM4p5, thus supporting the key role for a mesoscale closure at this resolution. Key Points Documentation is provided for a new generation of NOAA‐GFDL CMIP6/OMIP ocean ice climate models Dynamical core and physical parameterizations are described and key features of interannual CORE simulations are assessed Using hybrid vertical coordinates reduces spurious ocean heat drift

Motivated by the importance of mixing arising from dissipating internal waves (IWs), vertical profiles of internal‐wave dissipation from a high‐resolution regional ocean model are compared with finestructure estimates made from observations. A horizontal viscosity scheme restricted to only act on horizontally rotational modes (such as eddies) is introduced and tested. At lower resolutions with horizontal grid spacings of 2 km, the modeled IW dissipation from numerical model agrees reasonably well with observations in some cases when the restricted form of horizontal viscosity is used. This suggests the possibility that if restricted forms of horizontal viscosity are adopted by global models with similar resolutions, they could be used to diagnose and map IW dissipation distributions. At higher resolutions with horizontal grid spacings of ∼250 m, the dissipation from vertical shear and horizontal viscosity act much more strongly resulting in dissipation overestimates; however, the vertical‐shear dissipation itself is found to agree well with observations. Plain Language Summary Oceanic mixing impacts circulation, stratification (layering by density), and the uptake and transport of heat and nutrients. Over most of the ocean, mixing is caused by the breaking (turnover) of internal waves lying on the interfaces of density layers. Most ocean models do not contain a resolved internal wavefield, and therefore must parameterize internal wave (IW) mixing based upon external information. Recently developed high‐resolution ocean models with credible representations of internal waves may make it possible to map and understand global IW mixing without use of external information. Here we compare vertical profiles (profiles in depth) of IW dissipation in a regional model, which can be used to understand sensitivities to numerical schemes and grid spacings. With grid spacings that are attainable in global models, modeled dissipation profiles lie somewhat close to observed profiles, as long as certain choices are made within the numerical schemes. One numerical dissipation scheme is designed to realistically remove energy from eddy fields, which are the non‐wavelike motions in the ocean, and we have adapted this scheme to act less strongly on internal waves. Using this modified scheme, we find that high‐resolution global models may already be able to map IW dissipation. Key Points Vertical profiles of internal wave (IW) dissipation in high‐resolution regional ocean simulations are compared with observed profiles Profiles in runs with a restricted form of horizontal viscosity and resolutions attainable in global models are close to observations Results suggest high‐resolution global models can be used to map IW dissipation after numerical sensitivities are tested in regional models