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This theoretical article introduces the construct of CEO celebrity in order to explain how the tendency of journalists to attribute a firm's actions and outcomes to the volition of its CEO affects such firm. In the model developed here, journalists celebrate a CEO whose firm takes strategic actions that are distinctive and consistent by attributing such actions and performance to the firm's CEO. In so doing, journalists over-attribute a firm's actions and outcomes to the disposition of its CEO rather than to broader situational factors. A CEO who internalizes such celebrity will also tend to believe this over-attribution and become overconfident about the efficacy of her past actions and future abilities. Hubris arises when CEO overconfidence results in problematic firm decisions, including undue persistence with actions that produce celebrity.

In this paper, we study the post-hoc calibration of modern neural networks, a problem that has drawn a lot of attention in recent years. Despite the plethora of calibration methods proposed, there is no consensus yet on the inherent complexity of the task and, while some authors claim that simple functions solve the problem, others suggest that more expressive models are needed to capture misscalibration. As a first approach, we focus on the task of confidence scaling, specifically on post-hoc methods that generalize Temperature Scaling, which we refer to as the Adaptive Temperature Scaling family. We begin by demonstrating that while complex models like neural networks provide an advantage when there is ample data, they fail in scenarios where it is limited, notably common in fields like medical diagnosis. We then show how under this ideal data conditions the more expressive methods learn a relationship between the entropy of a prediction and its level of overconfidence, and based on this observation, we propose Entropy-based Temperature Scaling, a simple method that scales the confidence of a prediction according to this relationship. Results show that our method obtains state-of-the-art performance and is robust against data scarcity. Moreover, our proposed model enables a deeper understanding of the calibration process by the interpretation of the entropy as a measure of uncertainty in the network outputs.

The purpose of this research is to test and analyze the effect of optimism bias and over confidence in improving investment decisions in Aceh, mediated by herding variables. This type of research is survey research using a questionnaire as a data collection tool. The respondents who were used as the research sample were investors in IDX Aceh, totaling 115 people. Whereasdata analysis method in this study using Structural Equation Model(SEM) AMOS. The effect of biased optimism and over confidence is proven statistically significant in influencing investors' investment decisions at IDX Aceh. U'kewise, there is a direct significant effect between the variable over confidence on investment decisions and the influence relationship between over confidence on investment decisions.IDX Aceh should focus on building investor confidence, by providing various trading trainings, and updating knowledge about stock analysis.Able to provide an in-depth understanding of the herding behavior of Islamic stock products in making investor decisions in various circles in Aceh so that they are interested in investing, especially buying shares. Investment achievement for IDX Aceh is not seen through how much profit the company generates, but how investors feel satisfied with the services and various pro-investor policies provided by the organization. So that the role of bias optimism, over confidence and herding is very crucial in the stock exchange (IDX Aceh) in ensuring the creation of superior, quality, professional and accountable investment decisions.

How do potentially optimistic entrepreneurs attract prospective investors? We investigate an entrepreneur's decision to pursue either disclosure —where investors inspect the invention—or a contingent payment scheme (CPS) offer (e.g., salary deferral, royalty-based license)—where an invention's value is inferred from the entrepreneur's willingness to make her pay contingent on the invention's success. Using a parsimonious model, we highlight the role of optimism and demonstrate that it only affects CPS ex post. As a result, a novel trade-off unfolds ex ante: In choosing an action that maximizes the valuation of the invention, a moderately wealthy entrepreneur weighs optimism discount (affecting CPS) versus imitation discount (affecting disclosure). More broadly, the paper advances a view of entrepreneurs as optimists, thus departing from the prevailing approach, which characterizes entrepreneurs as opportunistic individuals who consciously pursue self-serving goals.

Purpose This study aims to investigate the influence of professional skepticism (PS) on the quality of judgment and decision-making (QJDM) among Iranian Certified Public Accountants (CPAs) while considering the moderating effects of ego depletion (ED) and overconfidence (OC). Design/methodology/approach Nonprobabilistic sampling was used to collect data through questionnaires and direct engagement with 950 Iranian CPA members, resulting in 300 completed responses for analysis. Findings The study confirms that PS significantly positively impacts QJDM among independent auditors. Therefore, a high level of trait PS could improve QJDM. In addition, a majority of auditors experience ED and suffer from OC bias due to their extensive knowledge, experience and self-efficacy. ED and OC play negative moderating roles in attenuating the effect of PS on QJDM. Research limitations/implications The study emphasizes that integrating PS into auditors’ codes of ethics and improving audit work systems can significantly enhance the quality of auditing practices. Furthermore, addressing existence of OC and ED among auditors will further benefit the audit process. Implementing these measures will lead to more accurate assignment and distribution of audit work among independent auditors, ultimately resulting in more reliable and objective auditing judgment and making decisions. Originality/value This study not only approves the vital role of PS, ED and OC in the QJDM of independent auditors but also contributes to the existing QJDM literature in auditing.

Background We sought to determine whether the Reflective Practice Questionnaire (RPQ) is a reliable measure of reflective capacity and related characteristics in medical students. We also planned to learn how the RPQ could be used in medical education. Methods The RPQ is a 40 item self-report questionnaire that includes a multi-faceted approach to measuring reflective capacity. It also includes sub-scales on several other theoretically relevant constructs such as desire for improvement, confidence, stress, and job satisfaction. The reliabilities of reflective capacity and other sub-scales were determined by calculating their Cronbach alpha reliability values. In the present study, the RPQ was answered by 98 graduating fourth-year medical students from an American University, and these RPQ scores were compared with general public and mental health practitioner samples from a prior study using ANOVA and Bonferroni adjusted comparisons. Results Medical students reported a higher reflective capacity than the general public sample, but students were statistically indistinguishable from the mental health practitioner sample. For medical students, reflective capacity was associated with features of confidence, stress, and desire for improvement. Job satisfaction was positively associated with confidence in communication with patients, and negatively associated with stress when interacting with patients. A cluster analysis revealed that around 19% of the medical students exhibited a relatively high level of anxiety interacting with patients, 23% were less engaged, 5% were dissatisfied, and 7% expressed a level of over-confidence in their knowledge and skills that was concerning. Conclusions The RPQ is a reliable measure of reflective capacity (Chronbach’s alpha value = 0.84) and related characteristics (Cronbach’s alpha values from 0.75 to 0.83) in medical students. The RPQ can be used as part of pre-post evaluations of medical education initiatives, to complement student self-reflection activities in the curriculum, and to identify students who might benefit from targeted intervention.

Chinese management research aims to contribute to global management knowledge by offering rigorous and innovative theories and practical recommendations both for managing in China and outside. However, two seemingly opposite directions that researchers are taking could prove detrimental to the healthy development of Chinese management research. We argue that the two directions share a common ground that lies in the mindset regarding the confidence in the work on and from China. One direction of simply following the American mainstream on academic rigor demonstrates a lack of self-confidence, limiting theoretical innovation and practical relevance. Yet going in the other direction of overly indigenous research reflects over-confidence, often isolating the Chinese management research from the mainstream academia and at times, even becoming anti-science. A more integrated approach of conducting Chinese management research is recommended. Specifically, it is recommended that researchers can focus on phenomena salient in China and follow rigorous scientific methods, as illustrated by a few exemplary studies using the Chinese context. In this way, Chinese management research can advance if it becomes more self-confident in its study and application but not over-confident.

Non-consensus phenomena are widely observed in human society, but more attention is paid to consensus phenomena. One famous consensus model is the DeGroot model, and there are a series of outstanding works derived from it. By introducing the cognition bias, resulting in over-confidence and under-confidence in the DeGroot model, we propose a non-consensus model, namely the DeGroot-Non-Consensus model. It bridges consensus phenomena and non-consensus phenomena. While different in meaning, the new opinion model can reproduce the DeGroot model’s behaviors and supply a series of interesting non-consensus states. We find frozen fragment states for the over-confident population and time-dependent states for strong interaction strength. In frozen fragment states, the population is polarized into opinion clusters formed by extremists. In time-dependent states, agents jump between two opinions that only differ in the sign, which provides a possible explanation for the swing in opinions in elections and the fluctuations in open questions in the absence of external information. All of these states are summarized in the phase diagrams of the self-confidence and the interaction strength plane. Moreover, the transition scenarios along different parameter paths are studied. Meanwhile, the influence of the nodes’ degree is illustrated in the phase diagrams and the relationship is given. The finite size effect is found in the not quite over-confident population. An interesting phenomenon for small population sizes is that neutral populations with large opinion variance are robust to the fluctuations induced by a finite population size.

As a colossal developing economy, irrational, and inefficient trades broadly exist in China’s stock market and are intensified by the once-in-a-century COVID-19 pandemic. This atypical but prominent event enhances systemic risk and requires a more effective analysis tool that adapts to the investors’ sentiment and behavior. Based on the behavioral asset pricing model, this paper verifies the existence of noise traders in China’s stock market, measures the intensity of the noise with the NTR indicator, and examines the market noise with IANM. Furthermore, the mechanism of how COVID-19 influences the market noise through investors’ behaviors is analyzed with the event study method. The findings show that, based on 92 Chinese companies, the market noise significantly exists, and the noise is associated with psychological biases including over-confidence, herding effects and regret aversion. These biases are affected to varying degrees by COVID-19-related events, leading to notable implications for market stability and investor behavior during crises. Our study provides critical insights for policymakers and investors on managing market risks and understanding behavioral impacts during unprecedented events.

Decision confidence—the subjective belief to have made the right decision—is central in planning actions in a complex environment such as the medical field. It is unclear by which factors it is influenced. We analyzed a pooled data set of eight studies and performed a multicenter online survey assessing anesthesiologists’ opinions on decision confidence. By applying mixed models and using multiple imputation to determine the effect of missing values from the dataset on the results, we investigated how task performance, perceived workload, the utilization of user-centered medical diagnostic devices, job, work experience, and gender affected decision confidence. The odds of being confident increased with better task performance (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 0.94 to 1.7; p = 0.12; after multiple imputation OR: 3.19, 95% CI: 2.29 to 4.45; p < 0.001) and when user-centered medical devices were used (OR: 5.01, 95% CI: 3.67 to 6.85; p < 0.001; after multiple imputation OR: 3.58, 95% CI: 2.65 to 4.85; p < 0.001). The odds of being confident decreased with higher perceived workload (OR: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.93 to 0.95; p < 0.001; after multiple imputation, OR: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.93 to 0.95; p < 0.001). Other factors, such as gender, job, or professional experience, did not affect decision confidence. Most anesthesiologists who participated in the online survey agreed that task performance (25 of 30; 83%), perceived workload (24 of 30; 80%), work experience (28 of 30; 93%), and job (21 of 30; 70%) influence decision confidence. Improved task performance, lower perceived workload, and user-centered design in medical equipment enhanced the decision confidence of anesthesia providers.