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The rate of technological progress is an important metric used for predicting the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of future light-duty fleets. A trade-off between efficiency and performance is essential due to its implications on fuel consumption and efficiency improvement. These values are not directly available in the Brazilian fleet. Hence, this is the main gap in knowledge that has to be overcome. Tendencies in all relevant parameters were also unknown, and we have traced them as well, established on several publications data and models. We estimate the three indicators mentioned above for the Brazilian fleet from 1990 to 2020. Although the rate of technological progress was lower in Brazil than that in developed countries, it has increased from 0.39% to 0.61% to 1.7% to 1.9% in subsequent decades. Performance improvements offset approximately 31% to 39% of these efficiency gains. Moreover, the vehicle market is shifting toward larger vehicles, thus offsetting some efficiency improvements. We predict the fleet fuel efficiency for the years 2030 and 2035 using the above-mentioned factors. The predicted values for efficiency can vary by a factor of two. Thus, trade-off policies play a vital role in steering toward the desired goals of reducing the transportation sector’s impact on the environment.

La imaginación de mundos posibles ha experimentado un verdadero resurgimiento en la filosofía y las ciencias sociales de la última década. Sin embargo, ¿se trata realmente de una práctica de resistencia ejecutada por el pensamiento crítico, o estamos más bien frente a la estrategia por antonomasia con que el pensamiento tradicional ha colonizado el futuro y configurado nuestro presente? Para responder esta pregunta, el autor hace una breve reflexión histórica y filosófica, a fin de comprender las raíces de esta práctica especulativa. Entre otras conclusiones, considera que la imaginación de futuros posibles ha sido una de las herramientas fundamentales con que la racionalidad económica y geopolítica del siglo XX ha configurado silenciosamente nuestro presente. The imagination of possible worlds has experienced a true resurgence in philosophy and the social sciences over the past decade. However, is this really a practice of resistance carried out by critical thinking, or are we instead witnessing the quintessential strategy by which traditional thinking has colonized the future and shaped our present? To answer this question, the author offers a brief historical and philosophical reflection to understand the roots of this speculative practice. Among other conclusions, the author suggests that the imagination of possible futures has been one of the fundamental tools through which the economic and geopolitical rationality of the 20th century has quietly shaped our present. A imaginação de mundos possíveis tem experimentado um verdadeiro ressurgimento na filosofia e as ciências sociais da última década. No entanto, trata-se realmente de uma prática de resistência executada pelo pensamento crítico, ou estamos melhor frente a estratégia por antonomásia com que o pensamento tradicional tem colonizado o futuro e configurado nosso presente? Para responder esta pergunta, o autor faz uma breve reflexão histórica e filosófica para compreender as raízes desta prática especulativa. Entre outras conclusões, o autor considera que a imaginação de futuros possíveis tem sido uma das ferramentas fundamentais com que a racionalidade econômica e geopolítica do século XX configurou silenciosamente nosso presente.

This chapter contains sections titled: Hubbert's Oil Supply Forecast Energy Forecast Methodology Energy Forecast Trend References and Further Reading