Explore the vast range of titles available.

Climate warming poses a great threat to ecosystems worldwide, which significantly affects the geographical distribution and suitable growth area of species. Taking Castanopsis hystrix Miq. as the research object, the potentially suitable cultivation regions under present and future climatic emission scenarios in China were predicted based on the MaxEnt model with 360 effective individual distributions and eight environmental variables. The min temperature of coldest month (bio6), precipitation of driest month (bio14), and precipitation of warmest quarter (bio18) are three leading factors affecting the geographical distribution area of C. hystrix Miq. The suitable cultivation regions of C. hystrix Miq. range from 18°–34° N, 89°–122° E in central and southern China and cover an area of 261.95 × 104 km2. The spatial pattern of C. hystrix Miq. will migrate to the southern region of low latitudes with a decreasing suitable area when in ssp1-2.6, and to the southwestern region of low latitudes or expand to the northeast region at high latitudes in ssp5-8.5, with an increasing suitable area; no significant change on the spatial pattern in ssp2-2.4. For ssp1-2.6 or ssp2-4.5 climate scenarios, the southern region of high latitudes will be appropriate for introducing and cultivating C. hystrix Miq., and the cultivation area will increase. For ssp5-8.5, its cultivation will increase and expand to the northeast of high-latitude areas slightly.

Sirex nitobei, an Asian native wood wasp species, is a major pest in coniferous commercial forestry, infesting and weakening conifers through its obligate mutualism with a wood-rotting fungus species. The combination of wood wasp larvae and obligate mutualistic fungus causes the breakdown of plant vascular tissue, leading to the weakening of the plant and eventually to death, as well as a high economic cost in commercial forestry. Since it was first recorded in China in the early 1980s, S. nitobei has widely spread and become successfully established. Despite its extensive distribution range, little is known about the factors influencing current and future distribution patterns for potential pest control and monitoring. We used a maximum entropy model in conjunction with climate variables and shared socio-economic pathways to predict the current and future distribution of S. nitobei in China. We used the jackknife method and correlation analysis to select the bioclimatic and environmental variables that influence the geographic distribution of S. nitobei, which resulted in the inclusion of the monthly total precipitation in July (prec7), the monthly average maximum temperature in February (tmax2), the monthly average minimum temperature in July (tmin7), the monthly total precipitation in December (prec12), and isothermality (bio3). We found that precipitation and temperature influenced the potentially suitable areas, as predicted by the maximum entropy model. Moreover, the association of the fungus, the wood wasp, and the host plant impacts are related to availability of moisture and temperature, where moisture affects the growth of the fungus, and temperature influences the emergence, development and growth of larvae. Under the current climate conditions, the total potential suitable areas increased by 18.74%, while highly suitable and moderately suitable areas increased by 28.35 and 44.05%, respectively, under the 2081–2100 ssp245, 370 scenarios. Favorable conditions under climate change, low rainfall, and high temperature will favor the speedy larval development, the growth of its obligate nutritional fungal mutualist and the ability of S. nitobei to rapidly spread in previously unsuitable areas.

Because the research on the geographical distribution of species significantly influences people’s understanding of species protection and utilization, it is important to study the influence of climate change on plants’ geographical distribution patterns. Based on 166 distribution records and 11 climate and terrain variables, we used MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model and ArcGIS software to predict the potential distribution of Campsis grandiflora under climate change and then determined the dominant climate variables that significantly affected its geographical distribution. In our study, the area under the curve (AUC) value of the training data was 0.939, proving the accuracy of our prediction. Under current climate conditions, the area of potentially suitable habitat is 238.29 × 10 4 km 2 , mainly distributed in northern, central, southern, and eastern China. The dominant variables that affect the geographical distribution of C. grandiflora are temperature, precipitation and altitude. In the future climate change scenario, the total area of suitable habitat and highly suitable habitat will increase, whereas the area of moderately suitable habitat and poorly suitable habitat will decrease. In addition, the centroid of the potentially suitable area of C. grandiflora will migrate to higher latitude and higher altitudes areas. The results could give strategic guidance for development, protection, and utilization of C. grandiflora in China.

The Earth's environment is an important factor driving the evolution and distribution of biodiversity, with particular regard to endangered species, whose special evolutionary history and ecological environment changes profoundly impact their distribution and even survival. This paper conducts a preliminary analysis of the coupling relationship between the geological history distribution pattern of plants in the Cercidiphyllaceae, a unique East Asian group, and paleoclimatic changes, exploring the evolution of Cercidiphyllaceae's geographic distribution pattern. The MaxEnt model was used to construct the potentially suitable habitats for Cercidiphyllum japonicum in different periods, such as the current and future (2050s and 2070s). Research shows that Cercidiphyllaceae once exhibited relatively high diversity, with 21 fossil species assigned to 5 fossil genera. From the Late Cretaceous to the Eocene, when the global paleotemperature was relatively high, they were widely distributed in the mid‐high latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Since the Oligocene, with the global temperature decline, the number of species of Cercidiphyllaceae has decreased sharply, and the distribution habitats have also migrated to lower latitudes. Especially after experiencing multiple glacial periods in the Quaternary period, most species became extinct. Currently, only two species of the genus Cercidiphyllum remain, namely, C. japonicum and Cercidiphyllum magnificum, which are only discontinuously distributed in China and Japan. Under the current climatic conditions, the suitable habitat area of C. japonicum in China is 1,316,200 km2, primarily concentrated in the Hengduan Mountains and Qinling‐Daba Mountains. However, as temperatures rise because of global warming, the plant's viable habitat is projected to shrink significantly. In the 2050s and 2070s, the lightest contraction and the largest suitable habitat area are under the RCP6.0 climate scenario; in contrast, the most severe contraction and the smallest suitable habitat area are under the RCP4.5 climate scenario. These findings offer valuable insights for conservation efforts targeting this species, as well as other endangered plant species facing similar threats. Employing MaxEnt modeling, this research projects shifts in the potential suitable habitat range of Cercidiphyllum japonicum under climate change trajectories. Analysis identifies temperature and precipitation as dominant drivers governing habitat distribution, with models indicating significant range contraction throughout the forecast period.

Phytolacca americana, introduced to China in the 20th century for its medicinal properties, has posed a significant ecological and agricultural challenge. Its prolific fruit production, high reproductive coefficient, adaptability, and toxic roots and fruits have led to the formation of monoculture communities, reducing native species diversity and posing threats to agriculture, human and animal health, and local ecosystems. Understanding its potential distribution patterns at a regional scale and its response to climate change is essential for effective monitoring, management, and control. In this study, we utilized the Maxent model to simulate potential habitat areas of P. americana across three timeframes (current, 2050s, and 2070s) under three climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). Leveraging data from 556 P. americana sites across China, we employed ROC curves to assess the prediction accuracy. Our findings highlight key environmental factors influencing P. americana’s geographical distribution, including the driest month’s precipitation, the coldest month’s minimum temperature, the wettest month’s precipitation, isothermality, and temperature annual range. Under current climate conditions, P. americana potentially inhabits 280.26 × 104 km2 in China, with a concentration in 27 provinces and cities within the Yangtze River basin and its southern regions. While future climate change scenarios do not drastically alter the total suitable area, the proportions of high and low-suitability areas decrease over time, shifting towards moderate suitability. Specifically, in the SSP126 scenario, the centroid of the predicted suitable area shifts northeastward and then southwestward. In contrast, in the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, the centroid shifts northward.

Wood wasp species in the genus Sirex are known pests of forestry. They cause significant economic losses due to their impacts on plant health and wood quality. S. juvencus (Hymenoptera: Siricidae), widely distributed in Asia, Europe, and North America, is known to negatively impact forestry, infesting Picea, Pinus, Larix, Abies, Cupressus, and Pseudotsuga species. This pest destroys plants by depositing eggs, mucus, and its obligate mutualistic fungus, Amylostereum areolatum. Its obligate mutualistic fungus is to provide nutrition for S. juvencus larva. Despite its extensive distribution range, little is known about which environmental variables significantly impact current and future distribution patterns of S. juvencus for pest control and monitoring. Here we used the maximum entropy model in conjunction with occurrence points of S. juvencus and environmental variables to predict the current and future global potential distribution of S. juvencus. We used the jackknife method and Pearson’s correlation analysis to select the environmental variables that influence the geographic distribution of S. juvencus, which resulted in the inclusion of the monthly average maximum temperature in February, the max temperature of warmest month, monthly average minimum temperature in July, monthly total precipitation in June, precipitation of the driest month, monthly total precipitation in September, and the temperature annual range. Temperature and precipitation are mainly likely to drive the distribution enabled by its obligate mutualistic fungus and the potential to co-infect with other Sirex species. The high temperature and low humidity influence S. juvencus eggs and larvae directly and indirectly via fungus-growth, which enables the larvae to survive. Furthermore, S. juvencus may increase its distribution to moderately suitable areas due to competition or dependency on other Sirex species during the infestation. Under the future climatic conditions, the highly suitable area increased by 32.79%, while the moderately suitable area, low suitable area, and unsuitable area increased by 28.14%, 3.30%, and 2.15%. Under climate changes, S. juvencus may spread in previously unsuitable areas rapidly.

Based on 243 current valid distribution records for six wild strawberry species in China and data on 20 environmental variables, the geographical distributions of and potentially suitable areas for the wild strawberry species in Yunnan Province (China) under the current climate scenario were explored using the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software, and major environmental variables affecting their geographical distributions were evaluated. In addition, the spatio-temporal dynamic patterns of the suitable areas for the six wild strawberry species in Yunnan Province in the 2050s and 2070s under the two climate models of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 were predicted. Under the current climate scenario, the six wild strawberry species have suitable areas in Yunnan Province, which were mainly distributed in the high-altitude and low-temperature regions in the northwest and northeast, such as Diqing and Zhaotong. In addition, the average size of the highly suitable area for diploid wild strawberry species was greater than that for tetraploid species. Under the future climate scenarios, the average size of the highly suitable area for diploid species showed a tendency to expand, while that of tetraploid species showed a tendency to shrink. Altitude was a critical variable affecting the distribution of tetraploid species. Under the two future climate models of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, the suitable areas for wild strawberry species shifted to the regions of high latitude, high altitude, and low temperature. In addition, the average distance in the shift of the suitable area for tetraploid strawberry species was greater than that for the suitable area for diploid strawberry species. The above results provide valuable information for the management and protection of the germplasm resources of Fragaria.