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Precipitation plays a crucial role in the hydrological cycle and water resource management in climate-sensitive regions. Identifying the long-term changes in precipitation is essential for understanding the regional climate dynamics. The innovative trend analysis (ITA) method was used to study the seasonal and annual trends in precipitation over the Leh district from 1990 to 2020. The ITA results showed a statistically significant negative monotonic trend in annual precipitation at -2.45 mm. On a seasonal scale, the ITA results showed a significant monotonic decreasing trend in precipitation in spring (March-May) (-3.50 mm), winter (December-February) (-2.29 mm), and summer season (June-August) (-2.03 mm); however, the autumn season (September-November) showed a non-monotonic insignificant decreasing trend (-0.05 mm). The winter and spring seasons contributed largely to the overall decline of precipitation. The High coefficients of variation in seasonal data indicate strong interannual variability, and the percentage bias values suggest deviations in seasonal precipitation behaviour. The results highlight a shift toward decline and erratic seasonal rainfall, which can have negative implications for water management in the region. Since the communities in the region depend on winter precipitation (snowfall) for water availability, artificial glaciers are the primary adaptive measures to mitigate water stress. Results from the present study can guide future initiatives aimed at mitigating the implications of changing precipitation on rural livelihoods and other sensitive ecosystems in the Himalayan region.

A prominent precipitation decrease occurred over the equatorial central Pacific in the late 1990s, accompanied by precipitation increase around the Maritime Continent and over the equatorial America. Previous studies attributed the above change to La Niña-like decadal mean sea surface temperature (SST) cooling associated with a positive to negative phase switch of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Results of numerical experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model reveal that both the interdecadal and interannual components of SST variations contribute to the late 1990s’ precipitation reduction over the equatorial central Pacific in all the four seasons and the precipitation increase around the Maritime Continent in winter and summer. The accompanying precipitation increase over the Central America is mainly induced by the interdecadal components of SST variations. The contribution of interannual SST variations to the equatorial central Pacific precipitation decrease mostly stems from a larger rate of precipitation change with SST in positive than negative SST anomaly years, which leads to a residual decadal mean precipitation being larger during the period before than after the late 1990s. The moisture budget decomposition demonstrates that the dynamic effect associated with the vertical motion change dominates the tropical decadal mean precipitation changes in all the four seasons and the thermodynamic effect associated with the moisture change is small. This applies to the equatorial central Pacific, the Maritime Continent, and the Central America in both interdecadal and interannual SST forced simulations.

The trade-offs between key functional traits in plants have a decisive impact on biomass production. However, how precipitation and nutrient deposition affect the trade-offs in traits and, ultimately, productivity is still unclear. In the present study, a mesocosm experiment was conducted to explore the relationships between biomass production and the aboveground and belowground key functional traits and their trade-offs under changes in precipitation and nutrient depositions in Leymus chinensis, a monodominant perennial rhizome grass widespread in the eastern Eurasian steppe. Our results showed that moisture is the key factor regulating the effect of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) deposition on increased biomass production. Under conditions of average precipitation, water use efficiency (WUE) was the key trait determining the biomass of L. chinensis. There were obvious trade-offs between WUE and leaf area, specific leaf area, leaf thickness, and leaf dry matter. Conversely, under increasing precipitation, the effect of restricted soil water on leaf traits was relieved; the key limiting trait changed from WUE to plant height. These findings indicate that the shift of fundamental traits of photosynthetic carbon gain induced by precipitation under N and P deposition is the key ecological driving mechanism for the biomass production of typical dominant species in semi-arid grassland.

Precipitation exhibits a pronounced seasonal cycle, of which the phase and amplitude are closely associated with water resource management. While previous studies suggested an emerged delaying phase in the past decades, whether the amplified amplitude has emerged is controversial. Using multiple observational data sets and climate simulations, here we show that the amplification of precipitation annual cycle has emerged in most global land areas since the 1980s, especially in the tropics. These amplifications are mainly driven by anthropogenic emissions, and will be further intensified by 17.6% in the future (2081–2100) under high emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSP585), and limited to 7.2% under SSP126 scenario, relative to the historical period (1982–2014). Precipitation seasonality will be amplified by 4.2% for each 1°C of global warming, which is seen in all emission scenarios. The mitigation of lower emissions is helpful for alleviating the amplification of precipitation seasonality in a warming world. Plain Language Summary Precipitation displays pronounced seasonal cycle, and its phase and amplitude are closely associated with ecosystems and our society by redistributing water resources. The phase of precipitation cycle has been well understood in previous studies, but how its magnitude changes remain largely unknown. In this study, we use multiple observational data sets and climate simulations to show that precipitation annual cycle has been amplified in most parts of global land area since the 1980s. These amplifications are especially strong in the tropical regions, and are mainly driven by the increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. In the future (2081–2100) under high emission scenario (SSP585), they will be further intensified by 17.6% relative to the historical period (1982–2014), and will be limited to 7.2% under low emission scenario (SSP126). We also estimate that the amplitude of precipitation seasonality will be increased by around 4.2% for each 1°C of global warming, and suggest that keeping lower emissions is helpful for alleviating the amplification of precipitation seasonality. Key Points Precipitation annual cycle has been amplified in most global land areas since the 1980s, especially in the tropics Precipitation seasonality amplification will be intensified in the future, mainly driven by anthropogenic emissions The amplitude of precipitation seasonality will be amplified by ∼4.2% for each 1°C of global warming

Purpose of Review What does recent work say about how changes in convective organization could lead to changes in extreme precipitation? Recent Findings Changing convective organization is one mechanism that could explain variation in extreme precipitation increase through dynamics. In models, the effects of convective self-aggregation on extreme precipitation are sensitive to parameterization, among other factors. In both models and observations, whether or not convective organization influences extreme precipitation is sensitive to the time and space scales analyzed, affecting extreme precipitation on some scales but not others. While trends in observations in convective organization associated with mean precipitation have been identified, it has not yet been established whether these trends are robust or relevant for events associated with extreme precipitation. Summary Recent work has documented a somewhat view of how changes in convective organization could affect extreme precipitation with warming, and it remains unclear whether or not they do.

Mountain regions are recognised as hot-spots of climate change. Although the existence of an Elevation-Dependent Warming has been extensively confirmed in several mountain areas of the globe, fewer studies have analysed the elevational stratification of temporal trends of other climate variables, and particularly for precipitation. This study analyses changes in mean precipitation and its extremes in ERA5 global reanalysis data in key mountain areas of the globe, along with their elevational dependence, from 1951 to 2020. These include the Tibetan Plateau, the US Rocky Mountains, the Greater Alpine Region, and the Andes, as representative of different latitudes and climatic influences. Our analysis reveals common patterns of elevational dependent change in precipitation and its extremes in most of the mountainous areas, which emerge beyond their geographical differences. A positive elevational gradient of trends of extreme precipitation indices is found in the Tibetan Plateau, the Greater Alpine Region, and the subtropical Andes, highlighting a wetting effect (positive trends) at very high elevations. In contrast, the Rocky Mountains exhibit a negative elevational gradient, with a drying effect (negative trends) increasing with the elevation. Notably, a simple linear regression proved to be effective to describe the stratification of change in the Greater Alpine Region and the Rocky Mountains, whereas more complex vertical patterns need to be considered for the Andes and the Tibetan Plateau. Mean precipitation, heavy ( ≥ 10 mm) precipitation and the length of consecutive wet days show a consistent elevation-dependent stratification within each of the study areas, suggesting possible common driving mechanisms.

Various studies reported an elevation dependent precipitation and temperature changes in mountainous regions of the world including the Himalayas. Various mechanisms are proposed to link the possible dependence of the precipitation and temperature on elevation with other variables, including, long- and short-wave radiation, albedo, clouds, humidity, etc. In the present study changes and trends of precipitation and temperature at different elevation ranges in the Indian Himalayan region (IHR) is assessed. Observations and modelling fields during the period 1970–2099 are used. Modelling simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia experiments (CORDEX-SA) suites are considered. In addition, four seasons—winter (Dec, Jan, Feb: DJF), pre-monsoon (Mar, Apr, May: MAM), monsoon (Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep: JJAS) and post-monsoon (Oct, Nov: ON)—are considered to detect the possible seasonal response of elevation dependency. Firstly, precipitation and temperature fields, separately, as well as the diurnal temperature range (DTR) are assessed. Following, their long-term trends are investigated, if varying, at different elevational ranges in the IHR. To explain plausible physical mechanisms due to elevation dependency, trend of other variables viz., surface downward longwave radiation (DLR), total cloud faction, soil moisture, near surface specific humidity, surface snow melt and surface albedo, etc. are investigated. Results point towards an decreased (increased) precipitation in higher (lower) elevation. And amplified warming signals at higher elevations (above 3000 m), both in daytime and nighttime temperatures, during all seasons except the monsoon, are noticed. Increased DLR trends at higher elevation are also simulated well by the model and are likely the main elevation dependent driver in the IHR.

Precipitation is one of the important climatic indicators in the global climate system. Probable changes in monsoonal (June, July, August and September; hereafter JJAS) mean precipitation in the Himalayan region for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways or RCPs) and two future time slices (near and far) are estimated from a set of regional climate simulations performed under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) project. For each of the CORDEX-SA simulations and their ensemble, projections of near future (2020–2049) and far future (2070–2099) precipitation climatology with respect to corresponding present climate (1970–2005) over Himalayan region are presented. The variability existing over each of the future time slices is compared with the present climate variability to determine the future changes in inter annual fluctuations of monsoonal mean precipitation. The long-term (1970–2099) trend (mm/day/year) of monsoonal mean precipitation spatially distributed as well as averaged over Himalayan region is analyzed to detect any change across twenty-first century as well as to assess model uncertainty in simulating the precipitation changes over this period. The altitudinal distribution of difference in trend of future precipitation from present climate existing over each of the time slices is also studied to understand any elevation dependency of change in precipitation pattern. Except for a part of the Hindu-Kush area in western Himalayan region which shows drier condition, the CORDEX-SA experiments project in general wetter/drier conditions in near future for western/eastern Himalayan region, a scenario which gets further intensified in far future. Although, a gradually increasing precipitation trend is seen throughout the twenty-first century in carbon intensive scenarios, the distribution of trend with elevation presents a very complex picture with lower elevations showing a greater trend in far-future under RCP8.5 when compared with higher elevations.

Regional climate projections indicate that European summer precipitation may change considerably in the future. Southern Europe can expect substantial drying while Northern Europe could actually become wetter. Model spread and internal variability in these projections are large, however, and unravelling the processes that underlie the changes is essential to get more confidence in these projections. Large-scale circulation change is one of the contributors to model spread. In this paper we quantify the role of future large-scale circulation changes to summer precipitation change, using a 16-member single-model ensemble obtained with the regional climate model RACMO2, forced by the global climate model EC-Earth2.3 and the RCP8.5 emission scenario. Using the method of circulation analogues three contributions to the future precipitation change are distinguished. The first is the precipitation change occurring without circulation change (referred to as the thermodynamic term). This contribution is characterised by a marked drying-to-wetting gradient as one moves north from the Mediterranean. The second contribution measures the effects of changes in the mean circulation. It has a very different spatial pattern and is closely related to the development of a region of high pressure (attaining its maximum west of Ireland) and the associated anti-cyclonic circulation response. For a large area east of Ireland including parts of western Europe, it is the major contributor to the overall drying signal, locally explaining more than 90% of the ensemble-mean change. In regions where the patterns overlap, the signal-to-noise ratio of the total change is either enhanced or reduced depending on their relative signs. Although the second term is expected to be particularly model dependent, the high-pressure region west of Ireland also appears in CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble-mean projections. The third contribution records the effects of changes in the circulation variability. This term has the smallest net contribution, but a relatively large uncertainty. The analogues are very good in partitioning the ensemble-mean precipitation change, but describe only up to 40% of the ensemble-spread. This demonstrates that other precipitation-drivers (SST, spring soil moisture etc.) will generally strongly influence trends in single climate realisations. This also re-emphasises the need for large ensembles or using alternative methods like the Pseudo Global Warming approach where signal to noise ratios are higher. Nevertheless, identifying the change mechanisms helps to understand the future uncertainties and differences between models.

An obvious long‐term drying trend in recent early springs (February–March–April) is observed over southeastern China (SEC). Here, we attribute this drying to the weakened subtropical westerlies and deflected by the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Climatologically, the low‐level southwesterlies at the southeastern margin of the TP, a branch of the upstream subtropical westerly jet deflected by the TP terrain, bring water vapor to SEC and the southerlies move upward over SEC mainly through isentropic gliding mechanism, inducing persistent precipitation in early spring. However, the subtropical westerlies weakened significantly in recent decades due potentially to the decreased Eurasian snow cover. Consequently, an easterly trend appears along the southern margin of the TP with anomalous northeasterlies over SEC. These northeasterlies suppress both moisture supply and upward motions over SEC, and reduce regional early spring precipitation. Our results highlight the interaction between the TP terrain and the weakened subtropical westerlies that leads to the drying SEC. Plain Language Summary Spring precipitation in southeastern China (SEC) is a major rainband during the pre‐flood season in East Asia, which is significant for agricultural production and social economy. However, in the recent few decades, a robust long‐term drying trend has occurred over SEC in early spring. In this study, we propose a new mechanism for the decreased SEC precipitation and highlight the important influence of the weakened subtropical westerlies and their interaction with the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Deflected by the TP large terrain, the upstream weakened subtropical westerlies induce weakened westerlies and southwesterlies along the southern and southeastern margins of the TP, respectively. As a result, the weakened southwesterlies at the southeastern TP not only reduce the moisture transport downstream, but also suppress the ascending motions over SEC through the isentropic gliding mechanism. Both the water vapor and atmospheric circulation conditions finally induce the drying SEC in recent early springs. Key Points An early spring drying trend has occurred in southeastern China (SEC), much of this can be attributed to the weakened subtropical westerlies Deflected by the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the weakened subtropical westerlies decelerate downstream westerlies along the TP's southern margin The decelerated westerlies at the southeastern TP suppress moisture supply and rising motions over SEC, both processes cause the drying SEC