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Uncertainty is a significant challenge in tsunami hazard analysis. Tsunami heights are affected by complex factors and change constantly during propagation. The heights of tsunami have random characteristics. This study proposes that the water depths (related to seabed topography) are the most important factors that affect tsunami height. But across the globe, a considerable area of seabed topography has not been measured. So it is necessary to use the method of uncertainty to consider the water depth. The Wiener process is utilized to quantify the random changes of the water depth, which can better describe the situation that water depths change in a non-monotonic way. Considering the uncertainty of water depth, a Weiner process-based probabilistic model was established for predicting the maximum tsunami height, which is different from the maximum tsunami height deterministic or stochastic model previously studied with higher prediction efficiency and good prediction accuracy. The probability distribution of maximum tsunami heights was calculated using the stochastic model. The mean value of the maximum tsunami heights was very similar to the average value of 165 actual observations of maximum tsunami heights collected from 1997 to 2017.

We propose a novel online learning algorithm, called SpCoSLAM 2.0, for spatial concepts and lexical acquisition with high accuracy and scalability. Previously, we proposed SpCoSLAM as an online learning algorithm based on unsupervised Bayesian probabilistic model that integrates multimodal place categorization, lexical acquisition, and SLAM. However, our original algorithm had limited estimation accuracy owing to the influence of the early stages of learning, and increased computational complexity with added training data. Therefore, we introduce techniques such as fixed-lag rejuvenation to reduce the calculation time while maintaining an accuracy higher than that of the original algorithm. The results show that, in terms of estimation accuracy, the proposed algorithm exceeds the original algorithm and is comparable to batch learning. In addition, the calculation time of the proposed algorithm does not depend on the amount of training data and becomes constant for each step of the scalable algorithm. Our approach will contribute to the realization of long-term spatial language interactions between humans and robots.

Identifying highly channelized hydraulic conductivity fields and contaminant source parameters remains a challenging task, primarily due to the non‐Gaussian nature and high dimensionality of the parameter space, as well as the computational burden caused by repeatedly running forward numerical models. This study proposes a novel deep learning parameterization method called AEdiffusion, which combines Diffusion Denoising Probabilistic Model (DDPM) with Variational Autoencoder (VAE) for dimensionality reduction. The method employs a generator‐refiner strategy to generate high‐dimensional aquifer properties from low‐dimensional latent representations. The inversion modeling was performed on a synthetic non‐Gaussian hydraulic conductivity field with line‐source contamination using the Iterative Local Updating Ensemble Smoother (ILUES) algorithm. The results demonstrate that the AEdiffusion‐ILUES framework can accurately identify model parameters. To reduce the computational burden, an AR‐Net‐WL (ARNW) surrogate model was introduced, resulting in an efficient inversion framework (AEdiffusion‐ILUES‐ARNW) with similar prediction accuracy and predictive uncertainty estimation as the AEdiffusion‐ILUES but at a lower computational cost. Plain Language Summary Identifying highly channelized hydraulic conductivity fields and contaminant source parameters is crucial for developing groundwater remediation strategies. However, this remains a challenging task due to the non‐Gaussian nature and high dimensionality of the parameter space, as well as the computational burden caused by repeatedly running numerical models. We propose a novel deep learning‐based inversion framework to identify hydraulic conductivity fields and contaminant sources from sparse and error‐prone observations. Key Points A novel and accurate deep learning parameterization method combining DDPM and VAE is proposed to parameterize non‐Gaussian hydraulic conductivity fields A deep autoregressive neural network is integrated into the inversion framework as a surrogate to alleviate the high computational cost of the forward numerical models The integrated approach is assessed with inverse problems for the identification of a non‐Gaussian conductivity and line contaminant source parameters

Spatial transcriptomics maps gene expression across tissues, posing the challenge of determining the spatial arrangement of different cell types. However, spatial transcriptomics spots contain multiple cells. Therefore, the observed signal comes from mixtures of cells of different types. Here, we propose an innovative probabilistic model, Celloscope, that utilizes established prior knowledge on marker genes for cell type deconvolution from spatial transcriptomics data. Celloscope outperforms other methods on simulated data, successfully indicates known brain structures and spatially distinguishes between inhibitory and excitatory neuron types based in mouse brain tissue, and dissects large heterogeneity of immune infiltrate composition in prostate gland tissue.

Single-cell measurement techniques can now probe gene expression in heterogeneous cell populations from the human body across a range of environmental and physiological conditions. However, new mathematical and computational methods are required to represent and analyze gene-expression changes that occur in complex mixtures of single cells as they respond to signals, drugs, or disease states. Here, we introduce a mathematical modeling platform, PopAlign, that automatically identifies subpopulations of cells within a heterogeneous mixture and tracks gene-expression and cell-abundance changes across subpopulations by constructing and comparing probabilistic models. Probabilistic models provide a low-error, compressed representation of single-cell data that enables efficient large-scale computations. We apply PopAlign to analyze the impact of 40 different immunomodulatory compounds on a heterogeneous population of donor-derived human immune cells as well as patient-specific disease signatures in multiple myeloma. PopAlign scales to comparisons involving tens to hundreds of samples, enabling large-scale studies of natural and engineered cell populations as they respond to drugs, signals, or physiological change.

Copy number alterations constitute important phenomena in tumor evolution. Whole genome single-cell sequencing gives insight into copy number profiles of individual cells, but is highly noisy. Here, we propose CONET, a probabilistic model for joint inference of the evolutionary tree on copy number events and copy number calling. CONET employs an efficient, regularized MCMC procedure to search the space of possible model structures and parameters. We introduce a range of model priors and penalties for efficient regularization. CONET reveals copy number evolution in two breast cancer samples, and outperforms other methods in tree reconstruction, breakpoint identification and copy number calling.

This paper presents fast non-sampling based methods to assess the risk for trajectories of autonomous vehicles when probabilistic predictions of other agents’ futures are generated by deep neural networks (DNNs). The presented methods address a wide range of representations for uncertain predictions including both Gaussian and non-Gaussian mixture models to predict both agent positions and control inputs conditioned on the scene contexts. We show that the problem of risk assessment when Gaussian mixture models of agent positions are learned can be solved rapidly to arbitrary levels of accuracy with existing numerical methods. To address the problem of risk assessment for non-Gaussian mixture models of agent position, we propose finding upper bounds on risk using nonlinear Chebyshev’s Inequality and sums-of-squares programming; they are both of interest as the former is much faster while the latter can be arbitrarily tight. These approaches only require higher order statistical moments of agent positions to determine upper bounds on risk. To perform risk assessment when models are learned for agent control inputs as opposed to positions, we propagate the moments of uncertain control inputs through the nonlinear motion dynamics to obtain the exact moments of uncertain position over the planning horizon. To this end, we construct deterministic linear dynamical systems that govern the exact time evolution of the moments of uncertain position in the presence of uncertain control inputs. The presented methods are demonstrated on realistic predictions from DNNs trained on the Argoverse and CARLA datasets and are shown to be effective for rapidly assessing the probability of low probability events.

Plant Disease diagnosis based on deep learning mechanisms has been extensively studied and applied. However, the complex and dynamic agricultural growth environment results in significant variations in the distribution of state samples, and the lack of sufficient real disease databases weakens the information carried by the samples, posing challenges for accurately training models. This paper aims to test the feasibility and effectiveness of Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPM), Swin Transformer model, and Transfer Learning in diagnosing citrus diseases with a small sample. Two training methods are proposed: The Method 1 employs the DDPM to generate synthetic images for data augmentation. The Swin Transformer model is then used for pre-training on the synthetic dataset produced by DDPM, followed by fine-tuning on the original citrus leaf images for disease classification through transfer learning. The Method 2 utilizes the pre-trained Swin Transformer model on the ImageNet dataset and fine-tunes it on the augmented dataset composed of the original and DDPM synthetic images. The test results indicate that Method 1 achieved a validation accuracy of 96.3%, while Method 2 achieved a validation accuracy of 99.8%. Both methods effectively addressed the issue of model overfitting when dealing with a small dataset. Additionally, when compared with VGG16, EfficientNet, ShuffleNet, MobileNetV2, and DenseNet121 in citrus disease classification, the experimental results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed methods over existing approaches to a certain extent.

With rapid urbanization, the green space in urban areas is replaced with impervious built-up areas, which increases the frequency of urban floods. Kamrup Metropolitan District, Assam, is near the Brahmaputra and is highly prone to urban flooding. The present study aims to develop the urban flood susceptibility index (FSI) and to analyze the role of urban green space (UGS) as a nature-based solution (NBS) for urban flood susceptibility. Two types of flooded urban areas are observed using a two-stage cluster analysis. A GIS-based urban FSI is developed using logistic regression (LR), frequency ratio (FR), Shannon entropy (SE), certainty factor (CF), and weight of evidence (WoE) models, and variation of FSI is assessed for different UGS areas. According to the area under curve (AUC), the performance of all five models falls under the good to excellent class. The average UGS ratio for non-flooded is higher than for flooded areas, and with an increase in the area of UGS, the flooding probability decreases for all the models. The findings of the present study emphasize the importance of UGS and can be used for effective urban flood risk mitigation and management planning.

This handbook and ready reference presents a combination of statistical, information-theoretic, and data analysis methods to meet the challenge of designing empirical models involving molecular descriptors within bioinformatics.