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Phylogenese studies of geographic range evolution are increasingly using statistical model selection methods to choose among variants of the dispersal-extinction-cladogenesis (DEC) model, especially between DEC and DEC+J, a variant that emphasizes \"jump dispersal,\" or founder-event speciation, as a type of cladogenetic range inheritance scenario. Unfortunately, DEC+J is a poor model of founderevent speciation, and statistical comparisons of its likelihood with DEC are inappropriate. DEC and DEC+J share a conceptual flaw: cladogenetic events of range inheritance at ancestral nodes, unlike anagenetic events of dispersal and local extinction along branches, are not modelled as being probabilistic with respect to time. Ignoring this probability factor artificially inflates the contribution of cladogenetic events to the likelihood, and leads to underestimates of anagenetic, time-dependent range evolution. The flaw is exacerbated in DEC+J because not only is jump dispersal allowed, expanding the set of cladogenetic events, its probability relative to non-jump events is assigned a free parameter, j, that when maximized precludes the possibility of non-jump events at ancestral nodes. DEC+J thus parameterizes the mode of speciation, but like DEC, it does not parameterize the rate of speciation. This inconsistency has undesirable consequences, such as a greater tendency towards degenerate inferences in which the data are explained entirely by cladogenetic events (at which point branch lengths become irrelevant, with estimated anagenetic rates of 0). Inferences with DEC+J can in some cases depart dramatically from intuition, e.g. when highly unparsimonious numbers of jump dispersal events are required solely because j is maximized. Statistical comparison with DEC is inappropriate because a higher DEC+J likelihood does not reflect a more close approximation of the \"true\" model of range evolution, which surely must include time-dependent processes; instead, it is simply due to more weight being allocated (via j) to jump dispersal events whose time-dependent probabilities are ignored. In testing hypotheses about the geographic mode of speciation, jump dispersal can and should instead be modelled using existing frameworks for state-dependent lineage diversification in continuous time, taking appropriate cautions against Type I errors associated with such methods. For simple inference of ancestral ranges on a fixed phylogeny, a DEC-based model may be defensible if statistical model selection is not used to justify the choice, and it is understood that inferences about cladogenetic range inheritance lack any relation to time, normally a fundamental axis of evolutionary models.

AIM: Likelihood analyses of ancestral ranges require a parameterized model that consists of a time‐calibrated phylogeny, an ‘adjacency matrix’ of allowed or forbidden area connections, and an ‘area–dispersal’ matrix with probabilities for discrete periods of time. The approach is implemented in the software Lagrange. Because it can incorporate information about past continental positions, the approach has been used in historical biogeographical studies of relatively old clades. Surprisingly, no study has evaluated the interactions among these input matrices. Here we use the lily family Colchicaceae and artificial data to study the relative effect of the input matrices on final estimates. LOCATION: Africa, Australia, Eurasia, North America and South America. METHODS: Using eight plastid, mitochondrial and nuclear DNA regions from 85 of the c. 280 species of Colchicaceae (representing all genera and the entire geographical range) and relevant outgroups, we obtained a well‐resolved phylogeny dated with a molecular clock. We then assigned species to six geographical distributions and carried out 22 Lagrange runs in which we modified the adjacency and dispersal matrices, the latter with zero, two or four time periods and one, three or five dispersal probabilities. For a second data set, the areas at deep nodes in the empirical tree were modified by shuffling species distributions. Models were compared based on global log‐likelihoods. RESULTS: The adjacency matrix strongly determined the outcome, while time slices and dispersal probability categories had minor effects. Ancestral areas reconstructed at most nodes were unaffected by the different input matrices. Colchicaceae are likely to have originated in Cretaceous East Gondwana, initially diversified in Australia (c. 67 Ma), reached southern Africa during the Palaeocene–Eocene, and from there extended their range to Southeast Asia (probably through Arabia) and then North America (through Beringia). MAIN CONCLUSIONS: At least in small data sets, Lagrange models should be tested with sensitivity analyses as carried out here, concentrating on constrained versus unconstrained adjacency matrices, and it should be good practice to report the set‐up of both input matrices, not just the dispersal matrix, which is the less decisive of the two.

The mechanisms underlying the high extant biodiversity in the Neotropics have been controversial since the 19th century. Support for the influence of period-specific changes on diversification often rests on detecting more speciation events during a particular period. The timing of speciation events may reflect the influence of incomplete taxon sampling, protracted speciation, and null processes of lineage accumulation. Here we assess the influence of these factors on the timing of speciation with new multilocus data for New World noctilionoid bats (Chiroptera: Noctilionoidea). Biogeographic analyses revealed the importance of the Neotropics in noctilionoid diversification, and the critical role of dispersal. We detected no shift in speciation rate associated with the Quaternary or pre-Quaternary periods, and instead found an increase in speciation linked to the evolution of the subfamily Stenodermatinae (~18 Ma). Simulations modeling constant speciation and extinction rates for the phylogeny systematically showed more speciation events in the Quaternary. Since recording more divergence events in the Quaternary can result from lineage accumulation, the age of extant sister species cannot be interpreted as supporting higher speciation rates during this period. Instead, analyzing the factors that influence speciation requires modeling lineage-specific traits and environmental, spatial, and ecological drivers of speciation.

Phylogenetic trees often depart from the expectations of stochastic models, exhibiting imbalance in diversification among lineages and slowdowns in the rate of lineage accumulation through time. Such departures have led to a widespread perception that ecological differences among species or adaptation and subsequent niche filling are required to explain patterns of diversification. However, a key element missing from models of diversification is the geographical context of speciation and extinction. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit model of geographic range evolution and cladogenesis, where speciation arises via vicariance or peripatry, and explore the effects of these processes on patterns of diversification. We compare the results with those observed in 41 reconstructed avian trees. Our model shows that nonconstant rates of speciation and extinction are emergent properties of the apportioning of geographic ranges that accompanies speciation. The dynamics of diversification exhibit wide variation, depending on the mode of speciation, tendency for range expansion, and rate of range evolution. By varying these parameters, the model is able to capture many, but not all, of the features exhibited by birth–death trees and extant bird clades. Under scenarios with relatively stable geographic ranges, strong slowdowns in diversification rates are produced, with faster rates of range dynamics leading to constant or accelerating rates of apparent diversification. A peripatric model of speciation with stable ranges also generates highly unbalanced trees typical of bird phylogenies but fails to produce realistic range size distributions among the extant species. Results most similar to those of a birth–death process are reached under a peripatric speciation scenario with highly volatile range dynamics. Taken together, our results demonstrate that considering the geographical context of speciation and extinction provides a more conservative null model of diversification and offers a very different perspective on the phylogenetic patterns expected in the absence of ecology.

The ability to adapt to marginal habitats, in which survival and reproduction are initially poor, plays a crucial role in the evolution of ecological niches and species ranges. Adaptation to marginal habitats may be limited by genetic, developmental, and functional constraints, but also by consequences of demographic characteristics of marginal populations. Marginal populations are often sparse, fragmented, prone to local extinctions, or are demographic sinks subject to high immigration from high-quality core habitats. This makes them demographically and genetically dependent on core habitats and prone to gene flow counteracting local selection. Theoretical and empirical research in the past decade has advanced our understanding of conditions that favor adaptation to marginal habitats despite those limitations. This review is an attempt at synthesis of those developments and of the emerging conceptual framework.

Aim: We sought to illuminate the history of the arachnid orders Schizomida and Uropygi, neither of which have previously been subjected to global molecular phylogenetic and biogeographical analyses. Location: Specimens used in this study were collected in all major tropical and subtropical areas where they are presently found, including the Americas, Africa, Australia and the Indo-Pacific region. Methods: From field-collected specimens, we sequenced two nuclear and two mitochondrial markers, combined these with publicly available data, and conducted multi-gene phylogenetic analyses on 240 Schizomida, 24 Uropygi and 12 other arachnid outgroups. Schizomid specimens included one specimen from the small family Protoschizomidae; other schizomid specimens were in Hubbardiidae, subfamily Hubbardiinae, which holds 289 of the order's 305 named species. We inferred ancestral areas using the Dispersal-Extinction-Cladogenesis model of range evolution, and we used fossil calibrations to estimate divergence times. Results: We recovered monophyletic Schizomida and Uropygi as each other's sister group, forming the clade Thelyphonida, and terminals from the New World were usually positioned as the earliest diverging lineages. The ancestral area for schizomids reconstructed unambiguously to the region comprised of Mexico, Southern California and Florida (the xeric New World subtropics). Optimal trees suggested a single colonization of the Indo-Pacific in both orders, although this did not receive bootstrap support. Molecular dating gave an Upper Carboniferous origin for each order, and a mid-Cretaceous expansion of Schizomida, including the origin and initial diversification of those in the Indo-Pacific. Main conclusions: Ancestral area reconstructions, molecular dating and fossil evidence all support an Upper Carboniferous, tropical Pangean origin for Thelyphonida, Schizomida and perhaps Uropygi. Much of this region became unsuitable habitat for these arachnids during the breakup of Pangea, but they persisted in the area that is now Meso- and South America. From there they then expanded to the Indo-Pacific, where schizomids today display an idiosyncratic combination of microendemism and long-range dispersal.

Understanding how species attain their geographical distributions and identifying traits correlated with range size are important objectives in biogeography, evolutionary biology and biodiversity conservation. Despite much effort, results have been varied and general trends have been slow to emerge. Studying species pools that occupy specific habitats, rather than clades or large groupings of species occupying diverse habitats, may better identify ranges size correlates and be more informative for conservation programmes in a rapidly changing world. We evaluated correlations between a set of organismal traits and range size in bird species from Amazonian white-sand ecosystems. We assessed if results are consistent when using different data sources for phylogenetic and range hypotheses. We found that dispersal ability, as measured by the hand-wing index, was correlated with range size in both white-sand birds and their non-white-sand sister taxa. White-sand birds had smaller ranges on average than their sister taxa. The results were similar and robust to the different data sources. Our results suggest that the patchiness of white-sand ecosystems limits species’ ability to reach new habitat islands and establish new populations.

Sex differences in selection are ubiquitous in sexually reproducing organisms. When the genetic basis of traits is shared between the sexes, such sexually antagonistic selection (SAS) creates a potential constraint on adaptive evolution. Theory and laboratory experiments suggest that environmental variation and the degree of local adaptation may all affect the frequency and intensity of SAS. Here, we capitalize on a large database of over 700 spatially or temporally replicated estimates of sex-specific phenotypic selection from wild populations, combined with data on microclimates and geographical range information. We performed a meta-analysis to test three predictions from SAS theory, that selection becomes more concordant between males and females: (1) in more stressful environments, (2) in more variable environments and (3) closer to the edge of the species' range. We find partial empirical support for all three predictions. Within-study analyses indicate SAS decreases in extreme environments, as indicated by a relationship with maximum temperature, minimum precipitation and evaporative potential (PET). Across studies, we found that the average level of SAS at high latitudes was lower, where environmental conditions are typically less stable. Finally, we found evidence for reduced SAS in populations that are far from the centre of their geographical range. However, and notably, we also found some evidence of reduced average strength of selection in these populations, which is in contrast to predictions from classical theoretical models on range limit evolution. Our results suggest that environmental lability and species range position predictably influence sex-specific selection and sexual antagonism in the wild. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Linking local adaptation with the evolution of sex differences’.

Aim Successful colonization after long-distance dispersal (LDD) depends on the availability of suitable habitats and competitive ability. In this study, we address the hypothesis that two widely distributed sister grass lineages (broad- and fine-leaved Loliinae; hereafter BL and FL) that differ in their habitat requirements and competitive ability also differ in their biogeographic history, with particular reference to LDD. Location Global. Methods We reconstructed a comprehensive phylogeny of Loliinae, based on nuclear and plastid markers and estimated divergence times using fossil calibrations. Biogeographical events were estimated using analysis of range evolution, comparing different models. Numbers and rates of dispersals were estimated for BL and FL using stochastic mapping with best-performing and baseline biogeographical models, and examined for correlation with distance, disjunction type, and phenotypic syndrome. Results The most recent common ancestor of Loliinae likely split at the Oligocene-Miocene transition (22.50 ± 3.95 Ma), pre-dating previous estimates, whereas the ancestors of the BL and FL Loliinae likely began to diversify in the Early Miocene (18.91 ± 4.15 and 17.50 ± 3.50 Ma, respectively). A model of range evolution integrating founder events and scaling of dispersal by shortest distance between areas performed best amongst a set of alternative models and recovered a mean of 83 dispersal events in Loliinae. Overall dispersal rates were significantly higher in BL than in FL. Per-route dispersal rates showed a significant negative exponential relationship to shortest distance but were not affected by phenotypic syndrome or disjunction type. Main conclusions Loliinae originated in the Northern Hemisphere and evolved through recurrent LDDs. Higher competitive ability, potentially related to the broad-leaved syndrome (i.e. tall strong-rhizomatous plants, long-living individuals, occupancy of more stable habitats), may explain higher observed dispersal rates in BL compared with FL Loliinae. However, the dominant factor impacting dispersal in both BL and FL Loliinae is the distance between suitable areas.

The relevance of tobamoviruses to crop production is increasing due to new emergences, which cannot be understood without knowledge of the tobamovirus host range and host specificity. Recent analyses of tobamovirus occurrence in different plant communities have shown unsuspectedly large host ranges. This was the case of the tobacco mild green mosaic virus (TMGMV), which previously was most associated with solanaceous hosts. We addressed two hypotheses concerning TMGMV host range evolution: (i) ecological fitting, rather than genome evolution, determines TMGMV host range, and (ii) isolates are adapted to the host of origin. We obtained TMGMV isolates from non-solanaceous hosts and we tested the capacity of genetically closely related TMGMV isolates from three host families to infect and multiply in 10 hosts of six families. All isolates systemically infected all hosts, with clear disease symptoms apparent only in solanaceous hosts. TMGMV multiplication depended on the assayed host but not on the isolate’s host of origin, with all isolates accumulating to the highest levels in Nicotiana tabacum. Thus, results support that TMGMV isolates are adapted to hosts in the genus Nicotiana, consistent with a well-known old virus–host association. In addition, phenotypic plasticity allows Nicotiana-adapted TMGMV genotypes to infect a large range of hosts, as encountered according to plant community composition and transmission dynamics.