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Let X be a random vector with distribution P θ where θ is an unknown parameter. When estimating θ by some estimator φ(X) under a loss function L(θ, φ), classical decision theory advocates that such a decision rule should be used if it has suitable properties with respect to the frequentist risk R(θ, φ). However, after having observed X = x, instances arise in practice in which φ is to be accompanied by an assessment of its loss, L(θ, φ(x)), which is unobservable since θ is unknown. A common approach to this assessment is to consider estimation of L(θ, φ(x)) by an estimator δ, called a loss estimator. We present an expository development of loss estimation with substantial emphasis on the setting where the distributional context is normal and its extension to the case where the underlying distribution is spherically symmetric. Our overview covers improved loss estimators for least squares but primarily focuses on shrinkage estimators. Bayes estimation is also considered and comparisons are made with unbiased estimation.

This paper introduces a new method for deriving covariance matrix estimators that are decision-theoretically optimal within a class of nonlinear shrinkage estimators. The key is to employ large-dimensional asymptotics: the matrix dimension and the sample size go to infinity together, with their ratio converging to a finite, nonzero limit. As the main focus, we apply this method to Stein's loss. Compared to the estimator of Stein (Estimation of a covariance matrix (1975); J. Math. Sci. 34 (1986) 1373–1403), ours has five theoretical advantages: (1) it asymptotically minimizes the loss itself, instead of an estimator of the expected loss; (2) it does not necessitate post-processing via an ad hoc algorithm (called \"isotonization\") to restore the positivity or the ordering of the covariance matrix eigenvalues; (3) it does not ignore any terms in the function to be minimized; (4) it does not require normality; and (5) it is not limited to applications where the sample size exceeds the dimension. In addition to these theoretical advantages, our estimator also improves upon Stein's estimator in terms of finite-sample performance, as evidenced via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. To further demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, we show that some previously suggested estimators of the covariance matrix and its inverse are decision-theoretically optimal in the large-dimensional asymptotic limit with respect to the Frobenius loss function.

We propose a generalized double Pareto prior for Bayesian shrinkage estimation and inferences in linear models. The prior can be obtained via a scale mixture of Laplace or normal distributions, forming a bridge between the Laplace and Normal-Jeffreys' priors. While it has a spike at zero like the Laplace density, it also has a Student's t-like tail behavior. Bayesian computation is straightforward via a simple Gibbs sampling algorithm. We investigate the properties of the maximum a posteriori estimator, as sparse estimation plays an important role in many problems, reveal connections with some well-established regularization procedures, and show some asymptotic results. The performance of the prior is tested through simulations and an application.

We develop a new estimator of the inverse covariance matrix for high-dimensional multivariate normal data using the horseshoe prior. The proposed graphical horseshoe estimator has attractive properties compared to other popular estimators, such as the graphical lasso and the graphical smoothly clipped absolute deviation. The most prominent benefit is that when the true inverse covariance matrix is sparse, the graphical horseshoe provides estimates with small information divergence from the sampling model. The posterior mean under the graphical horseshoe prior can also be almost unbiased under certain conditions. In addition to these theoretical results, we also provide a full Gibbs sampler for implementing our estimator. MATLAB code is available for download from github at http://github.com/liyf1988/GHS . The graphical horseshoe estimator compares favorably to existing techniques in simulations and in a human gene network data analysis. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

In large-scale panel data models with latent factors the number of factors and their loadings may change over time. Treating the break date as unknown, this article proposes an adaptive group-LASSO estimator that consistently determines the numbers of pre- and post-break factors and the stability of factor loadings if the number of factors is constant. We develop a cross-validation procedure to fine-tune the data-dependent LASSO penalties and show that after the number of factors has been determined, a conventional least-squares approach can be used to estimate the break date consistently. The method performs well in Monte Carlo simulations. In an empirical application, we study the change in factor loadings and the emergence of new factors in a panel of U.S. macroeconomic and financial time series during the Great Recession.

The Lasso is an attractive technique for regularization and variable selection for high-dimensional data, where the number of predictor variables $p_{n}$ is potentially much larger than the number of samples n. However, it was recently discovered that the sparsity pattern of the Lasso estimator can only be asymptotically identical to the true sparsity pattern if the design matrix satisfies the so-called irrepresentable condition. The latter condition can easily be violated in the presence of highly correlated variables. Here we examine the behavior of the Lasso estimators if the irrepresentable condition is relaxed. Even though the Lasso cannot recover the correct sparsity pattern, we show that the estimator is still consistent in the $\\ell _{2}\\text{-norm}$ sense for fixed designs under conditions on (a) the number $s_{n}$ of nonzero components of the vector $\\beta _{n}$ and (b) the minimal singular values of design matrices that are induced by selecting small subsets of variables. Furthermore, a rate of convergence result is obtained on the $\\ell _{2}$ error with an appropriate choice of the smoothing parameter. The rate is shown to be optimal under the condition of bounded maximal and minimal sparse eigenvalues. Our results imply that, with high probability, all important variables are selected. The set of selected variables is a meaningful reduction on the original set of variables. Finally, our results are illustrated with the detection of closely adjacent frequencies, a problem encountered in astrophysics.

This study analyzed the effects of curing and maturation on the formation of shrinkage strain and destructive processes in concrete. Experimental tests were performed on commonly used concrete, class C30/37, with basalt aggregate and blast furnace cement tested: at constant temperature after water curing, at constant temperature without water curing, and under cyclically changing temperature without prior curing. Shrinkage strain was measured for 46 days with an extensometer on 150 × 150 × 600 mm specimens, and the acoustic emission (AE) method was used to monitor microcracks and processes in concrete in real time. The results were compared with the model according to EN 1992-1-1:2023. It was found that this model correctly estimates shrinkage strain for wet-curing concrete, but there are discrepancies for air-dried concrete, regardless of temperature and moisture conditions (constant/variable). Correlation coefficients between shrinkage strain increments and process increments in early-age concrete are proposed. Correlations between shrinkage strain and destructive processes occurring in concrete were confirmed. It was found that by using correlation coefficients, it is possible to estimate internal damage in relation to shrinkage strain. The results indicate the need to develop guidelines for estimating shrinkage strain in non-model environmental conditions and demonstrate the usefulness of the nondestructive AE method in diagnosing early damage, especially in concrete structures exposed to adverse service conditions.

Varying coefficient regression models are known to be very useful tools for analysing the relation between a response and a group of covariates. Their structure and interpretability are similar to those for the traditional linear regression model, but they are more flexible because of the infinite dimensionality of the corresponding parameter spaces. The aims of this paper are to give an overview on the existing methodological and theoretical developments for varying coefficient models and to discuss their extensions with some new developments. The new developments enable us to use different amount of smoothing for estimating different component functions in the models. They are for a flexible form of varying coefficient models that requires smoothing across different covariates' spaces and are based on the smooth backfitting technique that is admitted as a powerful technique for fitting structural regression models and is also known to free us from the curse of dimensionality.

In this study, we suggest pretest and shrinkage methods based on the generalised ridge regression estimation that is suitable for both multicollinear and high-dimensional problems. We review and develop theoretical results for some of the shrinkage estimators. The relative performance of the shrinkage estimators to some penalty methods is compared and assessed by both simulation and real-data analysis. We show that the suggested methods can be accounted as good competitors to regularisation techniques, by means of a mean squared error of estimation and prediction error. A thorough comparison of pretest and shrinkage estimators based on the maximum likelihood method to the penalty methods. In this paper, we extend the comparison outlined in his work using the least squares method for the generalised ridge regression.