Explore the vast range of titles available.

Climate change is reshaping global vegetation through its impacts on plant mortality, but recruitment creates the next generation of plants and will determine the structure and composition of future communities. Recruitment depends on mean seed production, but also on the interannual variability and among-plant synchrony in seed production, the phenomenon known as mast seeding. Thus, predicting the long-term response of global vegetation dynamics to climate change requires understanding the response of masting to changing climate. Recently, data and methods have become available allowing the first assessments of long-term changes in masting. Reviewing the literature, we evaluate evidence for a fingerprint of climate change on mast seeding and discuss the drivers and impacts of these changes. We divide our discussion into the main characteristics of mast seeding: interannual variation, synchrony, temporal autocorrelation and mast frequency. Data indicate that masting patterns are changing but the direction of that change varies, likely reflecting the diversity of proximate factors underlying masting across taxa. Experiments to understand the proximate mechanisms underlying masting, in combination with the analysis of long-term datasets, will enable us to understand this observed variability in the response of masting. This will allow us to predict future shifts in masting patterns, and consequently ecosystem impacts of climate change via its impacts on masting. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

Synchrony is broadly important to population and community dynamics due to its ubiquity and implications for extinction dynamics, system stability, and species diversity. Investigations of synchrony in community ecology have tended to focus on covariance in the abundances of multiple species in a single location. Yet, the importance of regional environmental variation and spatial processes in community dynamics suggests that community properties, such as species richness, could fluctuate synchronously across patches in a metacommunity, in an analog of population spatial synchrony. Here, we test the prevalence of this phenomenon and the conditions under which it may occur using theoretical simulations and empirical data from 20 marine and terrestrial metacommunities. Additionally, given the importance of biodiversity for stability of ecosystem function, we posit that spatial synchrony in species richness is strongly related to stability. Our findings show that metacommunities often exhibit spatial synchrony in species richness. We also found that richness synchrony can be driven by environmental stochasticity and dispersal, two mechanisms of population spatial synchrony. Richness synchrony also depended on community structure, including species evenness and beta diversity. Strikingly, ecosystem stability was more strongly related to richness synchrony than to species richness itself, likely because richness synchrony integrates information about community processes and environmental forcing. Our study highlights a new approach for studying spatiotemporal community dynamics and emphasizes the spatial dimensions of community dynamics and stability.

Although it has long been recognized that seed production by many forest trees varies greatly from year to year, masting (along with 'mast fruiting', 'mast seeding' and 'masting behaviour') as a concept referring to such variability is a relatively recent development. Here, I provide a brief history of masting research, highlighting some of the early contributions by foresters, zoologists and others that paved the way for the burgeoning number of studies currently being conducted by researchers around the world. Of particular current interest is work attempting to understand the proximate mechanisms, evolutionary drivers and community effects of this important ecological phenomenon as well as the ways that climate change may influence masting behaviour in the future. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

Forests play a key role in the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems. One of the main uncertainties in global change predictions lies in how the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest productivity will be affected by climate warming. Here we show an increasing influence of climate on the spatial variability of tree growth during the last 120 y, ultimately leading to unprecedented temporal coherence in ring-width records over wide geographical scales (spatial synchrony). Synchrony in growth patterns across cold-constrained (central Siberia) and drought-constrained (Spain) Eurasian conifer forests have peaked in the early 21st century at subcontinental scales (∼1,000 km). Such enhanced synchrony is similar to that observed in trees co-occurring within a stand. In boreal forests, the combined effects of recent warming and increasing intensity of climate extremes are enhancing synchrony through an earlier start of wood formation and a stronger impact of year-to-year fluctuations of growing-season temperatures on growth. In Mediterranean forests, the impact of warming on synchrony is related mainly to an advanced onset of growth and the strengthening of drought-induced growth limitations. Spatial patterns of enhanced synchrony represent early warning signals of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems at subcontinental scales.

Unprecedented bark beetle outbreaks have been observed for a variety of forest ecosystems recently, and damage is expected to further intensify as a consequence of climate change. In Central Europe, the response of ecosystem management to increasing infestation risk has hitherto focused largely on the stand level, while the contingency of outbreak dynamics on large‐scale drivers remains poorly understood. To investigate how factors beyond the local scale contribute to the infestation risk from Ips typographus (Col., Scol.), we analysed drivers across seven orders of magnitude in scale (from 10³ to 10¹⁰ m²) over a 23‐year period, focusing on the Bavarian Forest National Park. Time‐discrete hazard modelling was used to account for local factors and temporal dependencies. Subsequently, beta regression was applied to determine the influence of regional and landscape factors, the latter characterized by means of graph theory. We found that in addition to stand variables, large‐scale drivers also strongly influenced bark beetle infestation risk. Outbreak waves were closely related to landscape‐scale connectedness of both host and beetle populations as well as to regional bark beetle infestation levels. Furthermore, regional summer drought was identified as an important trigger for infestation pulses. Large‐scale synchrony and connectivity are thus key drivers of the recently observed bark beetle outbreak in the area. Synthesis and applications. Our multiscale analysis provides evidence that the risk for biotic disturbances is highly dependent on drivers beyond the control of traditional stand‐scale management. This finding highlights the importance of fostering the ability to cope with and recover from disturbance. It furthermore suggests that a stronger consideration of landscape and regional processes is needed to address changing disturbance regimes in ecosystem management.

Spatial synchrony is the tendency of spatially separated populations to display similar temporal fluctuations. Synchrony affects regional ecosystem functioning, but it remains difficult to disentangle its underlying mechanisms. We leveraged regression on distance matrices and geography of synchrony to understand the processes driving synchrony of European beech masting over the European continent. Masting in beech shows distance-decay, but significant synchrony is maintained at spatial scales of up to 1,500 km. The spatial synchrony of the weather cues that drive interannual variation in reproduction also explains the regional spatial synchrony of masting. Proximity played no apparent role in influencing beech masting synchrony after controlling for synchrony in environmental variation. Synchrony of beech reproduction shows a clear biogeographical pattern, decreasing from the northwest to southeast Europe. Synchrony networks for weather cues resemble networks for beech masting, indicating that the geographical structure of weather synchrony underlies the biogeography of masting synchrony. Our results support the hypothesis that environmental factors, the Moran effect, are key drivers of spatial synchrony in beech seed production at regional scales. The geographical patterns of regional synchronization of masting have implications for regional forest production, gene flow, carbon cycling, disease dynamics, biodiversity, and conservation.

This study used Landsat-based detection of spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) outbreak over the years 2000–2014 across the Southern Rocky Mountain Ecoregion to examine the spatiotemporal patterns of outbreak and assess the influence of temperature, drought, forest characteristics, and previous spruce beetle activity on outbreak development. During the 1999—2013 period, time series of spruce beetle activity were highly spatially correlated (r > 0.5) at distances <5 km, but remained weakly correlated (r = 0.08) at distances >400 km. Furthermore, cluster analysis on time series of outbreak activity revealed the outbreak developed at multiple incipient locations and spread to unaffected forest, highlighting the importance of both local-scale dispersal and regional-scale drivers in synchronizing spruce beetle outbreak. Spatial overlay analysis and Random Forest modeling of outbreak development show that outbreaks initiate in areas characterized by summer, winter, and multiyear drought and that outbreak spread is strongly linked to the proximity and extent of nearby outbreak, but remains associated with drought. Notably, we find that spruce beetle outbreak is associated with low peak snow water equivalent, not just summer drought. As such, future alterations to both winter and summer precipitation regimes are likely to drive important changes in subalpine forests.

Understanding the spatio-temporal evolution of streamflow droughts and their relationship with potential causative processes is critical for effective drought management. This study assesses spatial synchrony and temporal clustering of streamflow droughts in six major river basins of Peninsular India. The importance of baseflow, rainfall deficits, soil moisture deficits and high temperatures in triggering streamflow droughts is also investigated to identify the dominant driver during the period 1981–2015. Spatial synchrony of streamflow droughts is investigated using multivariate Ripley’s K function and temporal clustering is evaluated using univariate Ripley’s K at various timescales. The interactions of streamflow droughts with potential causative processes are investigated using event coincidence analysis. At regional scale, streamflow droughts in peninsular catchments show strong spatial synchrony even at longer timescales. However, at basin scale, droughts in the catchments show strong spatial synchrony only at smaller timescales, behave independently of each other and achieve asynchrony with time, especially at longer timescales. Streamflow droughts show the strongest temporal clustering at smaller timescales and the strength of clustering decreases after a 3 year timescale. Rainfall deficits primarily control streamflow droughts in Peninsular India at a range of lags, except just before the onset of drought events where baseflow dominates. In addition, trigger coincidence rates of baseflow are lower than rainfall deficits but higher than soil moisture deficits and high temperatures at longer time lags.

Global warming has led to an increasing frequency of extreme climate events; however, existing studies have largely focused on individual extremes or selected pairs occurring at specific locations over relatively short time frames, with limited attention to the long-term spatial synchrony of multiple extremes across different geographic regions. This study addresses this gap by examining the synchrony of eight precipitation and temperature extreme climate events across China from 1930 to 2022, using monthly-scale data. We quantify synchrony using two indicators: the proportions of land area (LA p ) and population (Pop p ) affected by these events. Our results reveal that over the 93-year period, the annual LA p increased approximately 3.5-fold, while Pop p doubled, suggesting that land exposure is expanding faster than population exposure. Although underpopulated regions northwest of the Hu Huangyong Line exhibit generally lower exposure levels, they experience a higher rate of increase in land exposure compared to densely populated areas. Extreme wet and hot events drive more than 60% of the total increase in land area exposure. We also identify a significant shift in ecosystem exposure: forest lands were the most affected before 1956, but since then, grasslands have become the dominant ecosystem exposed, especially during the warmer months. This study enhances understanding of the long-term spatial synchrony of multiple extreme climate events in China and emphasizes the critical need to integrate climatic, ecological, and social vulnerabilities into adaptation strategies to effectively manage growing risks.

Identifying the environmental drivers of variation in fitness-related traits is a central objective in ecology and evolutionary biology. Temporal fluctuations of these environmental drivers are often synchronized at large spatial scales. Yet, whether synchronous environmental conditions can generate spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values (i.e., correlated temporal trait fluctuations across populations) is poorly understood. Using data from long- term monitored populations of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus, n = 31), great tits (Parus major, n = 35) and pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca, n = 20) across Europe, we assessed the influence of two local climatic variables (mean temperature and mean precipitation in February-May) on spatial synchrony in three fitness-related traits: laying date, clutch size, and fledgling number. We found a high degree of spatial synchrony in laying date, but a lower degree in clutch size and fledgling number for each species. Temperature strongly influenced spatial synchrony in laying date for resident blue tits and great tits, but not for migratory pied flycatchers. This is a relevant finding in the context of environmental impacts on populations because spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values among populations may influence fluctuations in vital rates or population abundances. If environmentally induced spatial synchrony in fitness-related traits increases the spatial synchrony in vital rates or population abundances, this will ultimately increase the risk of extinction for populations and species. Assessing how environmental conditions influence spatiotemporal variation in trait values improves our mechanistic understanding of environmental impacts on populations.