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The formation of new species via the accumulation of incompatible genetic changes is thought to result either from ecologically based divergent natural selection or the order by which mutations happen to arise, leading to different evolutionary trajectories even under similar selection pressures. There is growing evidence in support of both ecological speciation and mutation-order speciation, but how different environmental scenarios affect the rate of species formation remains underexplored. We use a simple model of optimizing selection on multiple traits (“Fisher’s geometric model”) to determine the conditions that generate genetic incompatibilities in a changing environment. We find that incompatibilities are likely to accumulate in isolated populations adapting to different environments, consistent with ecological speciation. Incompatibilities also arise when isolated populations face a similar novel environment; these cases of mutation-order speciation are particularly likely when the environment changes rapidly and favors the accumulation of large-effect mutations. In addition, we find that homoploid hybrid speciation is likely to occur either when new environments arise in between the parental environments or when parental populations have accumulated large-effect mutations following a period of rapid adaptation. Our results indicate that periods of rapid environmental change are particularly conducive to speciation, especially mutation-order or hybrid speciation.

Some of the most spectacular adaptive radiations begin with founder populations on remote islands. How genetically limited founder populations give rise to the striking phenotypic and ecological diversity characteristic of adaptive radiations is a paradox of evolutionary biology. We conducted an evolutionary genomics analysis of genus Metrosideros, a landscape-dominant, incipient adaptive radiation of woody plants that spans a striking range of phenotypes and environments across the Hawaiian Islands. Using nanopore-sequencing, we created a chromosome-level genome assembly for Metrosideros polymorpha var. incana and analyzed whole-genome sequences of 131 individuals from 11 taxa sampled across the islands. Demographic modeling and population genomics analyses suggested that Hawaiian Metrosideros originated from a single colonization event and subsequently spread across the archipelago following the formation of new islands. The evolutionary history of Hawaiian Metrosideros shows evidence of extensive reticulation associated with significant sharing of ancestral variation between taxa and secondarily with admixture. Taking advantage of the highly contiguous genome assembly, we investigated the genomic architecture underlying the adaptive radiation and discovered that divergent selection drove the formation of differentiation outliers in paired taxa representing early stages of speciation/divergence. Analysis of the evolutionary origins of the outlier single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) showed enrichment for ancestral variations under divergent selection. Our findings suggest that Hawaiian Metrosideros possesses an unexpectedly rich pool of ancestral genetic variation, and the reassortment of these variations has fueled the island adaptive radiation.

Local adaptation is the first step in the process of ecological speciation. It is, however, an unstable and dynamic situation. It can be strengthened by the occurrence of alleles more specialized to the different habitats or vanish if generalist alleles arise by mutations and increase in frequency. This process can have complicated dynamics as specialist alleles may be much more common and may maintain local adaptation for a long time. Thus, even in the absence of an absolute fitness tradeoff between habitats, local adaptation may persist a long time before vanishing. Furthermore, several feedback loops can help to maintain it (the reinforcement, demographic, and recombination loops). This reinforcement can occur by modifying one of the three fundamental steps in a sexual life cycle (dispersal, syngamy, meiosis), which promotes genetic clustering by causing specific genetic associations. Distinguishing these mechanisms complements the one- versus two-allele classification. Overall, the relative rates of the two processes (specialization and reinforcement) dictate whether ecological speciation will occur.

Estimates of diversification rates at the tips of a phylogeny provide a flexible approach for correlation analyses with multiple traits and to map diversification rates in space while also avoiding the uncertainty of deep time rate reconstructions. Available methods for tip rate estimation make different assumptions, and thus their accuracy usually depends on the characteristics of the underlying model generating the tree. Here, we introduce MiSSE, a trait-free, state-dependent speciation and extinction approach that can be used to estimate varying speciation, extinction, net diversification, turnover, and extinction fractions at the tips of the tree. We compare the accuracy of tip rates inferred by MiSSE against similar methods and demonstrate that, due to certain characteristics of the model, the error is generally low across a broad range of speciation and extinction scenarios. MiSSE can be used alongside regular phylogenetic comparative methods in trait-related diversification hypotheses, and we also describe a simple correction to avoid pseudoreplication from sister tips in analyses of independent contrasts. Finally, we demonstrate the capabilities of MiSSE, with a renewed focus on classic comparative methods, to examine the correlation between plant height and turnover rates in eucalypts, a species-rich lineage of flowering plants.

The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) sensu lato (sl), comprising the platform, the Himalaya and the Hengduan Mountains, is characterized by a large number of endemic plant species. This evolutionary cradle may have arisen from explosive species diversification because of geographic isolation. However, gene flow has been widely detected during the speciation processes of all groups examined, suggesting that natural selection may have also played an important role during species divergence in this region. In addition, natural hybrids have been recovered in almost all species-rich genera. This suggests that numerous species in this region are still ‘on the speciation pathway to complete reproductive isolation (RI)’. Such hybrids could directly develop into new species through hybrid polyploidization and homoploid hybrid speciation (HHS). HHS may take place more easily than previously thought through alternate inheritance of alleles of parents at multiple RI loci. Therefore, isolation, selection and hybridization could together have promoted species diversification of numerous plant genera on the QTP sl. We emphasize the need for identification and functional analysis of alleles of major genes for speciation, and especially encourage investigations of parallel adaptive divergence causing RI across different lineages within similar but specific habitats in this region.

The extraordinary species richness of freshwater fishes has attracted much research on mechanisms and modes of speciation. We here review research on speciation in freshwater fishes in light of speciation theory, and place this in a context of broad-scale diversity patterns in freshwater fishes. We discuss several major repeated themes in freshwater fish speciation and the speciation mechanisms they are frequently associated with. These include transitions between marine and freshwater habitats, transitions between discrete freshwater habitats, and ecological transitions within habitats, as well as speciation without distinct niche shifts. Major research directions in the years to come include understanding the transition from extrinsic environment-dependent to intrinsic reproductive isolation and its influences on species persistence and understanding the extrinsic and intrinsic constraints to speciation and how these relate to broad-scale diversification patterns through time.

During speciation-with-gene-flow, effective migration varies across the genome as a function of several factors, including proximity of selected loci, recombination rate, strength of selection, and number of selected loci. Genome scans may provide better empirical understanding of the genome-wide patterns of genetic differentiation, especially if the variance due to the previously mentioned factors is partitioned. In North American lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis), glacial lineages that diverged in allopatry about 60,000 years ago and came into contact 12,000 years ago have independently evolved in several lakes into two sympatric species pairs (a normal benthic and a dwarf limnetic). Variable degrees of as isolation between species pairs across lakes offer a continuum of genetic and phenotypic divergence associated with adaptation to distinct ecological niches. To disentangle the complex array of genetically based barriers that locally reduce the effective migration rate between whitefish species pairs, we compared genome-wide patterns of divergence across five lakes distributed along this divergence continuum. Using restriction site associated DNA (RAD) sequencing, we combined genetic mapping and population genetics approaches to identify genomic regions resistant to introgression and derive empirical measures of the barrier strength as a function of recombination distance. We found that the size of the genomic islands of differentiation was influenced by the joint effects of linkage disequilibrium maintained by selection on many loci, the strength of ecological niche divergence, as well as demographic characteristics unique to each lake. Partial parallelism in divergent genomic regions likely reflected the combined effects of polygenic adaptation from standing variation and independent changes in the genetic architecture of postzygotic isolation. This study illustrates how integrating genetic mapping and population genomics of multiple sympatric species pairs provide a window on the speciation-with-gene-flow mechanism.

Geographic isolation is considered essential to most speciation events, but our understanding of what controls the pace and degree of phenotypic divergence among allopatric populations remains poor. Why do some taxa exhibit phenotypic differentiation across barriers to dispersal, whereas others do not? To test factors controlling phenotypic divergence in allopatry, we employed a comparative phylogeographic approach consisting of replicates of ecologically similar Andean bird species isolated across a major biogeographic barrier, the Marañon Valley of Peru. Our study design leverages variation among codistributed taxa in their degree of plumage, morphometric, and vocal differentiation across the Marañon to examine the tempo of phenotypic evolution. We found that substantial plumage difference between populations required roughly two million years to evolve. In contrast, morphometric trait evolution showed greater idiosyncrasy and stasis. Our results demonstrate that despite a large degree of idiosyncrasy in the relationship between genetic and phenotypic divergence across taxa and environments, comparative studies within regions may reveal predictability in the pace of phenotypic divergence. Our results also suggest that social selection is important for driving differentiation of populations found in similar environments.

Recent simulation studies examining the performance of Bayesian species delimitation as implemented in the BPP program have suggested that BPP may detect population splits but not species divergences and that it tends to over-split when data of many loci are analyzed. Here, we confirm these results and provide the mathematical justifications. We point out that the distinction between population and species splits made in the protracted speciation model (PSM) has no influence on the generation of gene trees and sequence data, which explains why no method can use such data to distinguish between population splits and speciation. We suggest that the PSM is unrealistic as its mechanism for assigning species status assumes instantaneous speciation, contradicting prevailing taxonomic practice. We confirm the suggestion, based on simulation, that in the case of speciation with gene flow, Bayesian model selection as implemented in BPP tends to detect population splits when the amount of data (the number of loci) increases. We discuss the use of a recently proposed empirical genealogical divergence index (gdi) for species delimitation and illustrate that parameter estimates produced by a full likelihood analysis as implemented in BPP provide much more reliable inference under the gdi than the approximate method PHRAPL. We distinguish between Bayesian model selection and parameter estimation and suggest that the model selection approach is useful for identifying sympatric cryptic species, while the parameter estimation approach may be used to implement empirical criteria for determining species status among allopatric populations.