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Darwin's classic image of an \"entangled bank\" of interdependencies among species has long suggested that it is difficult to predict how the loss of one species affects the abundance of others. We show that for dynamical models of realistically structured ecological networks in which pair-wise consumer-resource interactions allometrically scale to the [fraction three-quarters] power--as suggested by metabolic theory--the effect of losing one species on another can be predicted well by simple functions of variables easily observed in nature. By systematically removing individual species from 600 networks ranging from 10-30 species, we analyzed how the strength of 254,032 possible pair-wise species interactions depended on 90 stochastically varied species, link, and network attributes. We found that the interaction strength between a pair of species is predicted well by simple functions of the two species' biomasses and the body mass of the species removed. On average, prediction accuracy increases with network size, suggesting that greater web complexity simplifies predicting interaction strengths. Applied to field data, our model successfully predicts interactions dominated by trophic effects and illuminates the sign and magnitude of important nontrophic interactions.

Describing the mechanisms that drive variation in species interaction strengths is central to understanding, predicting, and managing community dynamics. Multiple factors have been linked to trophic interaction strength variation, including species densities, species traits, and abiotic factors. Yet most empirical tests of the relative roles of multiple mechanisms that drive variation have been limited to simplified experiments that may diverge from the dynamics of natural food webs. Here, we used a field-based observational approach to quantify the roles of prey density, predator density, predator-prey body-mass ratios, prey identity, and abiotic factors in driving variation in feeding rates of reticulate sculpin (Cottus perplexus). We combined data on over 6,000 predator-prey observations with prey identification time functions to estimate 289 prey-specific feeding rates at nine stream sites in Oregon. Feeding rates on 57 prey types showed an approximately log-normal distribution, with few strong and many weak interactions. Model selection indicated that prey density, followed by prey identity, were the two most important predictors of prey-specific sculpin feeding rates. Feeding rates showed a positive relationship with prey taxon densities that was inconsistent with predator saturation predicted by current functional response models. Feeding rates also exhibited four orders-of-magnitude in variation across prey taxonomic orders, with the lowest feeding rates observed on prey with significant anti-predator defenses. Body-mass ratios were the third most important predictor variable, showing a hump-shaped relationship with the highest feeding rates at intermediate ratios. Sculpin density was negatively correlated with feeding rates, consistent with the presence of intraspecific predator interference. Our results highlight how multiple co-occurring drivers shape trophic interactions in nature and underscore ways in which simplified experiments or reliance on scaling laws alone may lead to biased inferences about the structure and dynamics of species-rich food webs.

In the West Antarctic Peninsula, global warming has led to severe alterations in community composition, species distribution, and abundance over the last decades. Understanding the complex interplay between structure and stability of marine food webs is crucial for assessing ecosystem resilience, particularly in the context of ongoing environmental changes. In this study, we estimate the interaction strength within the Potter Cove (South Shetland Islands, Antarctica) food web to elucidate the roles of species in its structure and functioning. We use these estimates to calculate food web stability in response to perturbations, conducting sequential extinctions to quantify the importance of individual species based on changes in stability and food web fragmentation. We explore connections between interaction strength and key topological properties of the food web. Our findings reveal an asymmetric distribution of interaction strengths, with a prevalence of weak interactions and a few strong ones. Species exerting greater influence within the food web displayed higher degree and trophic similarity but occupied lower trophic levels and displayed lower omnivory levels (e.g., macroalgae and detritus). Extinction simulations revealed the key role of certain species, particularly amphipods and the black rockcod Notothenia coriiceps, as their removal led to significant changes in food web stability and network fragmentation. This study highlights the importance of considering species interaction strengths in assessing the stability of polar marine ecosystems. These insights have crucial implications for guiding monitoring and conservation strategies aimed at preserving the integrity of Antarctic marine ecosystems. This study investigates the Potter Cove food web in the West Antarctic Peninsula, assessing species interactions and ecosystem stability in the face of environmental changes. Through analysis of interaction strengths and extinction simulations, key species such as amphipods and the black rockcod Notothenia coriiceps are highlighted for their role in maintaining stability and mitigating network fragmentation, underscoring the importance of understanding species interactions for conservation efforts in Antarctica.

Predicting the effects of climate change on ecological communities requires an understanding of how environmental factors influence both physiological processes and species interactions. Specifically, the net impact of temperature on community structure depends on the relative response of physiological energetic costs (metabolism) and energetic gains (ingestion of resources) that mediate the flow of energy throughout a food web. However, the relative temperature scaling of metabolic and ingestion rates have rarely been measured for multiple species within an ecological assemblage and it is not known how, and to what extent, these relative scaling differences vary among species. To investigate the relative influence of these processes, I measured the temperature scaling of metabolic and ingestion rates for a suite of rocky intertidal species using a multiple regression experimental design. I compared oxygen consumption rates (as a proxy for metabolic rate) and ingestion rates by estimating the temperature scaling parameter of the universal temperature dependence (UTD) model, a theoretical model derived from first principles of biochemical kinetics and allometry. The results show that consumer metabolic rates (energetic costs) tend to be more sensitive to temperature than ingestion rates (energetic gains). Thus, as temperature increases, metabolic rates tend to increase faster relative to ingestion rates, causing the overall energetic efficiencies of these rocky intertidal invertebrates to decline. Metabolic and ingestion rates largely scaled in accordance with the UTD model; however, nonlinearity was evident in several cases, particularly at higher temperatures, in which alternative models were more appropriate. There are few studies where multiple rate dependencies are measured on multiple species from the same ecological community. These results indicate that there may be general patterns across species in the temperature scaling of biological rates, with important implications for forecasting temperature effects on ecological communities.

All ecosystems are subjected to chronic disturbances, such as harvest, pollution, and climate change. The capacity to forecast how species respond to such press perturbations is limited by our imprecise knowledge of pairwise species interaction strengths and the many direct and indirect pathways along which perturbations can propagate between species. Network complexity (size and connectance) has thereby been seen to limit the predictability of ecological systems. Here we demonstrate a counteracting mechanism in which the influence of indirect effects declines with increasing network complexity when species interactions are governed by universal allometric constraints. With these constraints, network size and connectance interact to produce a skewed distribution of interaction strengths whose skew becomes more pronounced with increasing complexity. Together, the increased prevalence of weak interactions and the increased relative strength and rarity of strong interactions in complex networks limit disturbance propagation and preserve the qualitative predictability of net effects even when pairwise interaction strengths exhibit substantial variation or uncertainty.

A recent model predicts that species interactions in benthic marine communities vary predictably with upwelling regimes. To test this model, we studied the Pisaster-Mytilus interaction at 14 rocky intertidal sites distributed among three oceanographic regions along a 1300-km stretch of the U.S. West Coast. Regions included an intermittent-upwelling region (northern), a persistent-upwelling region (central), and a region of weak and infrequent upwelling (southern). We quantified predation rates by the sea star Pisaster ochraceus on its main prey Mytilus californianus by transplanting mussels into the sea star's low-zone foraging range and comparing the rate of mussel loss in + Pisaster plots to those in -Pisaster plots. To evaluate the relation between predation rates and key ecological processes and conditions, we quantified phytoplankton concentration and rates of mussel recruitment, mussel growth, mussel abundance, and sea star abundance. Predictions of the model are expressed as responses of predator and prey abundance, and species interaction strength (per capita and per population or total impact at the population level). As predicted by theory, per capita predation rates were independent of upwelling regime, with no variation with region. Contrary to expectation however, per-population predation rates were similar between intermittent- and persistent-upwelling regions but were greater under strong upwelling than under weak upwelling conditions. The greatest variation in per-population predation rates was at the level of site within region. Also contrary to theory, average abundances of prey (mussel cover) and predators (sea stars) were similar among oceanographic regions and varied mostly at the site level. As expected from theory, predation rate was high where sea star density was high, a condition that often coincided with a high food supply (phytoplankton) for filter feeders, including larvae, and high recruitment. With the exception of two sites having dense sea star populations and thus high predation, low values of either or both were associated with low predation, suggesting that the supply of prey often depended on conditions that favored subsidies of both phytoplankton and new larvae to prey populations. The occurrence of high predator density and high predation at sites of low inputs of particulate food and propagules suggests that understanding sea star life history is a key to a fuller understanding of variation in predation on a coastal scale. Evidence suggests that often sporadic recruitment of sea stars along the coast is balanced by great longevity, which tends to even out predation impact on coastal intertidal communities.

Efforts to estimate the strength of species interactions in species-rich, reticulate food webs have been hampered by the multitude of direct and indirect interactions such systems exhibit and have been limited by an assumption that pairwise interactions display linear functional forms. Here we present a new method for directly measuring, on a per capita basis, the nonlinear strength of trophic species interactions within such food webs. This is an observation-based method, requiring three pieces of information: (1) species abundances, (2) predator and prey-specific handling times, and (3) data from predator-specific feeding surveys in which the number of individuals observed feeding on each of the predator's prey species has been tallied. The method offers a straightforward way to assess the completeness of one's sampling effort in accurately estimating interaction strengths through the construction of predator-specific prey accumulation curves. The method should be applicable to a variety of systems in which empirical estimates of direct interaction strengths have thus far remained elusive.

Land use is known to reduce the diversity of species and complexity of biotic interactions. In theory, interaction networks can be used to predict the sensitivity of species against co-extinction, but this has rarely been applied to real ecosystems facing variable land-use impacts. We investigated plant-pollinator networks on 119 grasslands that varied quantitatively in management regime, yielding 25 401 visits by 741 pollinator species on 166 plant species. Species-specific plant and pollinator responses to land use were significantly predicted by the weighted average land-use response of each species' partners. Moreover, more specialized pollinators were more vulnerable than generalists. Both predictions are based on the relative interaction strengths provided by the observed interaction network. Losses in flower and pollinator diversity were linked, and mutual dependence between plants and pollinators accelerates the observed parallel declines in response to land-use intensification. Our findings confirm that ecological networks help to predict natural community responses to disturbance and possible secondary extinctions.

The structural organization of mutualism networks, typified by interspecific positive interactions, is important to maintain community diversity. However, there is little information available about the effect of introduced species on the structure of such networks. We compared uninvaded and invaded ecological communities, to examine how two species of invasive plants with large and showy flowers (Carpobrotus affine acinaciformis and Opuntia stricta) affect the structure of Mediterranean plant-pollinator networks. To attribute differences in pollination to the direct presence of the invasive species, areas were surveyed that contained similar native plant species cover, diversity and floral composition, with or without the invaders. Both invasive plant species received significantly more pollinator visits than any native species and invaders interacted strongly with pollinators. Overall, the pollinator community richness was similar in invaded and uninvaded plots, and only a few generalist pollinators visited invasive species exclusively. Invasive plants acted as pollination super generalists. The two species studied were visited by 43% and 31% of the total insect taxa in the community, respectively, suggesting they play a central role in the plant-pollinator networks. Carpobrotus and Opuntia had contrasting effects on pollinator visitation rates to native plants: Carpobrotus facilitated the visit of pollinators to native species, whereas Opuntia competed for pollinators with native species, increasing the nestedness of the plant-pollinator network. These results indicate that the introduction of a new species to a community can have important consequences for the structure of the plant-pollinator network.

Through competition for pollinators, invasive plants may suppress native flora. Community-level studies provide an integrative assessment of invasion impacts and insights into factors that influence the vulnerability of different native species. We investigated effects of the nonnative herb Lynthrum salicaria on pollination of native species in 14 fens of the eastern United States. We compared visitors per flower for 122 native plant species in invaded and uninvaded fens and incorporated a landscape-scale experiment, removing L. salicaria flowers from three of the invaded fens. Total flower densities were more than three times higher in invaded than uninvaded or removal sites when L. salicaria was blooming. Despite an increase in number of visitors with number of flowers per area, visitors per native flower declined with increasing numbers of flowers. Therefore, L. salicaria invasion depressed visitation to native flowers. In removal sites, visitation to native flowers was similar to uninvaded sites, confirming the observational results and also suggesting that invasion had not generated a persistent buildup of visitor populations. To study species-level impacts, we examined effects of invasion on visitors per flower for the 36 plant species flowering in both invaded and uninvaded fens. On average, the effect of invasion represented about a 20% reduction in visits per flower. We measured the influence of plant traits on vulnerability to L. salicaria invasion using meta-analysis. Bilaterally symmetrical flowers experienced stronger impacts on visitation, and similarity in flower color to L. salicaria weakly intensified competition with the invader for visitors. Finally, we assessed the reproductive consequences of competition with the invader in a dominant flowering shrub, Dasiphora fruticosa. Despite the negative effect of invasion on pollinator visitation in this species, pollen limitation of seed production was not stronger in invaded than in uninvaded sites, suggesting little impact of competition for pollinators on its population demography. Negative effects on pollination of native plants by this copiously flowering invader appeared to be mediated by increases in total flower density that were not matched by increases in pollinator density. The strength of impact was modulated across native species by their floral traits and reproductive ecology.