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Aim Statistical species distribution models (SDMs) are the most common tool to predict the impact of climate change on biodiversity. They can be tuned to fit relationships at various levels of complexity (defined here as parameterization complexity, number of predictors, and multicollinearity) that may co‐determine whether projections to novel climatic conditions are useful or misleading. Here, we assessed how model complexity affects the performance of model extrapolations and influences projections of species ranges under future climate change. Location Europe. Taxon 34 European tree species. Methods We sampled three replicates of predictor sets for all combinations of 10 levels (n = 3–12) of environmental variables (climate, terrain, soil) and 10 levels of multicollinearity. We used these sets for each species to fit four SDM algorithms at three levels of parameterization complexity. The >100,000 resulting SDM fits were then evaluated under environmental block cross‐validation and projected to environmental conditions for 2061–2080 considering four climate models and two emission scenarios. Finally, we investigated the relationships of model design with model performance and projected distributional changes. Results Model complexity affected both model performance and projections of species distributional change. Fits of intermediate parameterization complexity performed best, and more complex parameterizations were associated with higher projected loss of current ranges. Model performance peaked at 10–11 variables but increasing number of variables had no consistent effect on distributional change projections. Multicollinearity had a low impact on model performance but distinctly increased projected loss of current ranges. Main conclusions SDM‐based climate change impact assessments should be based on ensembles of projections, varying SDM algorithms as well as parameterization complexity, besides emission scenarios and climate models. The number of predictor variables should be kept reasonably small and the classical threshold of maximum absolute Pearson correlation of 0.7 restricts collinearity‐driven effects in projections of species ranges.

Altitudinal gradients provide a useful space‐for‐time substitution to examine the capacity for plant competition and facilitation to mediate responses to climate change. Decomposing net interactions into their facilitative and competitive components, and quantifying the performance of plants with and without neighbours along altitudinal gradients, may prove particularly informative in understanding the mechanisms behind plant responses to environmental change. To decouple the inherent responses of species to climate from the responses of plant–plant interactions to climate, we conducted a meta‐analysis. Using data from 16 alpine experiments, we tested if changes in net interactions along altitudinal gradients were due to a change in the performance of target species without neighbours (i.e. environmental severity effects only) or with neighbours (neighbour trait mediated effects). There was a global shift from competition to facilitation with increasing altitude driven by both environmental severity and neighbour trait effects. However, this global pattern was strongly influenced by the high number of studies in mesic climates and driven by competition at low altitude in temperate climates (neighbour trait effect), and facilitation at high altitude in arctic and temperate climates (environmental severity effect). In Mediterranean systems, there was no significant effect of competition, and facilitation increased with decreasing altitude. Changes in facilitation with altitude could not unambiguously be attributed to either neighbour trait effects or environmental severity effects, probably because of the opposing stress gradients of cold and aridity in dry environments. Partitioning net interactions along altitudinal gradients led to the prediction that climate change should decrease the importance of facilitation in mesic alpine communities, which might in turn exacerbate the negative effects of climate change in these regions. In xeric climates, the importance of facilitation by drought‐tolerant species should increase at low altitudes which should mitigate the negative effect of climate change. However, the importance of facilitation by cold‐tolerant species at high altitudes may decrease and exacerbate the effects of climate change.

Climate change is leading to shifts in species geographical distributions, but populations are also probably adapting to environmental change at different rates across their range. Owing to a lack of natural and empirical data on the influence of phenotypic adaptation on range shifts of marine species, we provide a general conceptual model for understanding population responses to climate change that incorporates plasticity and adaptation to environmental change in marine ecosystems. We use this conceptual model to help inform where within the geographical range each mechanism will probably operate most strongly and explore the supporting evidence in species. We then expand the discussion from a single-species perspective to community-level responses and use the conceptual model to visualize and guide research into the important yet poorly understood processes of plasticity and adaptation. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change’.

Climate change is happening due to natural factors and human activities. It expressively alters biodiversity, agricultural production, and food security. Mainly, narrowly adapted and endemic species are under extinction. Accordingly, concerns over species extinction are warranted as it provides food for all life forms and primary health care for more than 60–80% of humans globally. Nevertheless, the impact of climate change on biodiversity and food security has been recognized, little is explored compared to the magnitude of the problem globally. Therefore, the objectives of this review are to identify, appraise, and synthesize the link between climate change, biodiversity, and food security. Data, climatic models, emission, migration, and extinction scenarios, and outputs from previous publications were used. Due to climate change, distributions of species have shifted to higher elevations at a median rate of 11.0 m and 16.9 km per decade to higher latitudes. Accordingly, extinction rates of 1103 species under migration scenarios, provide 21–23% with unlimited migration and 38–52% with no migration. When an environmental variation occurs on a timescale shorter than the life of the plant any response could be in terms of a plastic phenotype. However, phenotypic plasticity could buffer species against the long-term effects of climate change. Furthermore, climate change affects food security particularly in communities and locations that depend on rain-fed agriculture. Crops and plants have thresholds beyond which growth and yield are compromised. Accordingly, agricultural yields in Africa alone could be decline by more than 30% in 2050. Therefore, solving food shortages through bringing extra land into agriculture and exploiting new fish stocks is a costly solution, when protecting biodiversity is given priority. Therefore, mitigating food waste, compensating food-insecure people conserving biodiversity, effective use of genetic resources, and traditional ecological knowledge could decrease further biodiversity loss, and meet food security under climate change scenarios. However, achieving food security under such scenario requires strong policies, releasing high-yielding stress resistant varieties, developing climate resilient irrigation structures, and agriculture. Therefore, degraded land restoration, land use changes, use of bio-energy, sustainable forest management, and community based biodiversity conservation are recommended to mitigate climate change impacts.

Theory predicts that sexual reproduction is difficult to maintain if asexuality is an option, yet sex is very common. To understand why, it is important to pay attention to repeatably occurring conditions that favour transitions to, or persistence of, asexuality. Geographic parthenogenesis is a term that has been applied to describe a large variety of patterns where sexual and related asexual forms differ in their geographic distribution. Often asexuality is stated to occur in a habitat that is, in some sense, marginal, but the interpretation differs across studies: parthenogens might not only predominate near the margin of the sexuals' distribution, but might also extend far beyond the sexual range; they may be disproportionately found in newly colonizable areas (e.g. areas previously glaciated), or in habitats where abiotic selection pressures are relatively stronger than biotic ones (e.g. cold, dry). Here, we review the various patterns proposed in the literature, the hypotheses put forward to explain them, and the assumptions they rely on. Surprisingly, few mathematical models consider geographic parthenogenesis as their focal question, but all models for the evolution of sex could be evaluated in this framework if the (often ecological) causal factors vary predictably with geography. We also recommend broadening the taxa studied beyond the traditional favourites. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Weird sex: the underappreciated diversity of sexual reproduction’.

Despite sometimes strong codependencies of insect herbivores and plants, the responses of individual taxa to accelerating climate change are typically studied in isolation. For this reason, biotic interactions that potentially limit species in tracking their preferred climatic niches are ignored. Here, we chose butterflies as a prominent representative of herbivorous insects to investigate the impacts of temperature changes and their larval host plant distributions along a 1.4-km elevational gradient in the German Alps. Following a sampling protocol of 2009, we revisited 33 grassland plots in 2019 over an entire growing season. We quantified changes in butterfly abundance and richness by repeated transect walks on each plot and disentangled the direct and indirect effects of locally assessed temperature, site management, and larval and adult food resource availability on these patterns. Additionally, we determined elevational range shifts of butterflies and host plants at both the community and species level. Comparing the two sampled years (2009 and 2019), we found a severe decline in butterfly abundance and a clear upward shift of butterflies along the elevational gradient. We detected shifts in the peak of species richness, community composition, and at the species level, whereby mountainous species shifted particularly strongly. In contrast, host plants showed barely any change, neither in connection with species richness nor individual species shifts. Further, temperature and host plant richness were the main drivers of butterfly richness, with change in temperature best explaining the change in richness over time. We concluded that host plants were not yet hindering butterfly species and communities from shifting upwards. However, the mismatch between butterfly and host plant shifts might become a problem for this very close plant–herbivore relationship, especially toward higher elevations, if butterflies fail to adapt to new host plants. Further, our results support the value of conserving traditional extensive pasture use as a promoter of host plant and, hence, butterfly richness.

Quantitative genetic variation (QGV) represents a major component of adaptive potential and, if reduced toward range-edge populations, could prevent a species’ expansion or adaptive response to rapid ecological change. It has been hypothesized that QGV will be lower at the range edge due to small populations—often the result of poor habitat quality—and potentially decreased gene flow. However, whether central populations are higher in QGV is unknown. We used a meta-analytic approach to test for a general QGV-range position relationship, including geographic and climatic distance from range centers. We identified 35 studies meeting our criteria, yielding nearly 1000 estimates of QGV (including broad-sense heritability, narrow-sense heritability, and evolvability) from 34 species. The relationship between QGV and distance from the geographic range or climatic niche center depended on the focal trait and how QGV was estimated. We found some evidence that QGV declines from geographic centers but that it increases toward niche edges; niche and geographic distances were uncorrelated. Nevertheless, few studies have compared QGV in both central and marginal regions or environments within the same species. We call for more research in this area and discuss potential research avenues related to adaptive potential in the context of global change.

Global warming is predicted to dramatically alter communities' composition through differential colonization abilities, such as between sessile plants and their mobile herbivores. Novel interactions between previously non-overlapping species may, however, also be mediated by altered plants' responses to herbivore attack. Syndromes of plant defences and tolerance are driven by inherited functional traits, biotic and abiotic conditions, and the geographical and historical contingencies affecting the community. Therefore, understanding climate change-driven herbivore responses and evolution towards a particular plant defence syndrome is key to forecasting species interactions in the near future. In this paper, we first document variations in herbivory, and plant defences along altitudinal gradients that act as 'natural experiments'. We then use an empirical model to predict how specialist herbivore abundance may shift with respect to elevation in the near future. Our field surveys and field experiment showed a decrease in herbivory with elevation. However, contrary to expectations, our meta-regression analyses showed that plant defences, particularly leaf toughness and flavonoid compounds, tend to be higher at high elevations, while secondary metabolites showed no clear trend with elevation. Based on those results, we discuss how plant communities and species-specific plant defence syndromes will change in response to the climate-driven herbivore colonization of higher altitudes. Particularly, plant from high elevation, due to high protection against abiotic stress may be already ecologically fitted to resist the sudden increase in herbivory pressure that they will likely experience during global change.

Significance Why do species’ ranges often end when no obvious change in the environment suggests they should? Our theory explains that there is an inherent limit to adaptation arising in any (finite) natural population and identifies the key parameters that determine this limit to a species’ range. Two observable parameters describe the threshold when adaptation fails: ( i ) the loss of fitness due to dispersal to a different environment, and ( ii ) the efficacy of selection relative to stochastic effects in finite populations. Why do species not adapt to ever-wider ranges of conditions, gradually expanding their ecological niche and geographic range? Gene flow across environments has two conflicting effects: although it increases genetic variation, which is a prerequisite for adaptation, gene flow may swamp adaptation to local conditions. In 1956, Haldane proposed that, when the environment varies across space, “swamping” by gene flow creates a positive feedback between low population size and maladaptation, leading to a sharp range margin. However, current deterministic theory shows that, when variance can evolve, there is no such limit. Using simple analytical tools and simulations, we show that genetic drift can generate a sharp margin to a species’ range, by reducing genetic variance below the level needed for adaptation to spatially variable conditions. Aided by separation of ecological and evolutionary timescales, the identified effective dimensionless parameters reveal a simple threshold that predicts when adaptation at the range margin fails. Two observable parameters determine the threshold: ( i ) the effective environmental gradient, which can be measured by the loss of fitness due to dispersal to a different environment; and ( ii ) the efficacy of selection relative to genetic drift. The theory predicts sharp range margins even in the absence of abrupt changes in the environment. Furthermore, it implies that gradual worsening of conditions across a species’ habitat may lead to a sudden range fragmentation, when adaptation to a wide span of conditions within a single species becomes impossible.

Spatial variation in filters imposed by the abiotic environment causes variation in functional traits within and among plant species. This is abundantly clear for plant species along elevational gradients, where parallel abiotic selection pressures give rise to predictable variation in leaf phenotypes among ecosystems. Understanding the factors responsible for such patterns may provide insight into the current and future drivers of biodiversity, local community structure and ecosystem function. In order to explore patterns in trait variation along elevational gradients, we conducted a meta‐analysis of published observational studies that measured three key leaf functional traits that are associated with axes of variation in both resource competition and stress tolerance: leaf mass:area ratio (LMA), leaf nitrogen content per unit mass (Nₘₐₛₛ) and N content per unit area (Nₐᵣₑₐ). To examine whether there may be evidence for a genetic basis underlying the trait variation, we conducted a review of published results from common garden experiments that measured the same leaf traits. Within studies, LMA and Nₐᵣₑₐ tended to decrease with mean annual temperature (MAT) along elevational gradients, while Nₘₐₛₛ did not vary systematically with MAT. Correlations among pairs of traits varied significantly with MAT: LMA was most strongly correlated with Nₘₐₛₛ and Nₐᵣₑₐ at high‐elevation sites with relatively lower MAT. The strengths of the relationships were equal or greater within species relative to the relationships among species, suggesting parallel evolutionary dynamics along elevational gradients among disparate biomes. Evidence from common garden studies further suggests that there is an underlying genetic basis to the functional trait variation that we documented along elevational gradients. Taken together, these results indicate that environmental filtering both selects locally adapted genotypes within plant species and constrains species to elevational ranges based on their ranges of potential leaf trait values. If individual phenotypes are filtered from populations in the same way that species are filtered from regional species pools, changing climate may affect both the species and functional trait composition of plant communities.