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result(s) for
"storage effect"
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Climate change in the coastal ocean
Climate change has led to intensification and poleward migration of the Southeastern Pacific Anticyclone, forcing diverging regions of increasing, equatorward and decreasing, poleward coastal phytoplankton productivity along the Humboldt Upwelling Ecosystem, and a transition zone around 31° S. Using a 20-year dataset of barnacle larval recruitment and adult abundances, we show that striking increases in larval arrival have occurred since 1999 in the region of higher productivity, while slower but significantly negative trends dominate poleward of 30° S, where years of recruitment failure are now common. Rapid increases in benthic adults result from fast recruitment–stock feedbacks following increased recruitment. Slower population declines in the decreased productivity region may result from aging but still reproducing adults that provide temporary insurance against population collapses. Thus, in this region of the ocean where surface waters have been cooling down, climate change is transforming coastal pelagic and benthic ecosystems through altering primary productivity, which seems to propagate up the food web at rates modulated by stock–recruitment feedbacks and storage effects. Slower effects of downward productivity warn us that poleward stocks may be closer to collapse than current abundances may suggest.
Journal Article
Fine-scale niche differences allow the co-existence of congeneric aquatic beetles in supratidal rockpools
Here we focused on the co-occurrence pattern on regional and local scales, and on the niche differences of two species of congeneric beetles (
Ochthebius quadricollis
and
O. lejolisii
, Hydraenidae) exclusive of supratidal rockpools. Abundances of adults and larval stages from both species and environmental variables were obtained in 10 pools from 12 localities along the Iberian Mediterranean coast. To determine the local co-existence pattern, we monthly sampled two localities in an annual cycle. On regional and local scales, we found negative correlations between both species’ pool abundances, which suggest spatio-temporal segregation based on their different environmental responses. The OMI analysis detected interspecific niche differences, larger in larvae than adults. The best regression models obtained for
O. quadricollis
larvae included depth, conductivity, and fine sediments as the main explanatory variables with a positive effect, and distance to sea and CPOM with a negative effect. For
O. lejolisii
larvae, the best models included CPOM and periphyton with positive effects, while pool area, depth and conductivity negatively affected. Our results suggest that subtle interspecific differences in ecological niches, mainly those related to pool hydroperiod and salinity, could determine spatio-temporal storage effects as the principal mechanisms of co-existence on local and regional scales.
Journal Article
Fluid Flow Simulation for Predicting Bottomhole Pressure That Considers Wellbore Storage Effects Under Shut-In Conditions in Deepwater Drilling
Under shut-in conditions in deepwater drilling, the gas invading the bottomhole ascends along the wellbore and accumulates at the wellhead, forming a high-pressure trap, challenging wellbore pressure prediction and control. The accurate prediction of bottomhole pressure is essential for well control during shut-in conditions. In this study, a new bottomhole pressure prediction model that considers wellbore storage effects was developed to address gas invasion issues during shut-in conditions in deepwater drilling. This model incorporates factors such as the wellbore elasticity, fluid compressibility, and drilling fluid filtration loss. The calculated values show good agreement with experimental values, with the average absolute and relative errors of 2.095 × 10−2 MPa and 3.71%, respectively. Meanwhile, the results indicate that the bottomhole pressure initially increases logarithmically over time and then transitions to a linear increase, and the residual flow and gas ascent significantly influence the bottomhole pressure. Finally, the effects of various parameters on the bottomhole pressure were evaluated. Larger initial pressure differential, exposed thickness, and formation permeability accelerate the increase in bottomhole pressure during residual flow stage, while smaller filter cake permeability and drilling fluid viscosity quicken its increase during gas ascent stage. Drilling fluid density affects the initial pressure and the residual flow duration. The findings of this study would provide theoretical support for well control operations in deepwater drilling.
Journal Article
Thermal disruption of soil bacterial assemblages decreases diversity and assemblage similarity
The metabolic theory of ecology assumes that rates of selection and adaptation for organisms are functions of temperature. Niche theory predicts that strong selection pressure should simplify assemblages as species are extirpated and taxa pre‐adapted for the new environment thrive. Here, we use closed mesocosms to test the prediction that higher temperatures decrease species richness and increase assemblage similarity more and faster than lower temperatures. We incubated two temperate forest soil types at constant temperatures from 10° to 35°, destructively sampling mesocosms at 30, 180, and 440 d. We quantified taxonomic richness and assemblage similarity of soil bacteria using 16S rRNA gene amplicons. As predicted, mesocosms at higher temperatures lost more taxa than those at lower temperature. Contrary to predictions, the simplified assemblages at higher temperatures became less similar to each other over time. After 440 d of incubation, the number of taxa lost was a linear function of the difference between treatment temperature and site mean annual temperature, while assemblage similarity decreased as an accelerating function of this temperature difference.
Journal Article
Chesson's coexistence theory
We give a comprehensive review of Chesson's coexistence theory, summarizing, for the first time, all its fundamental details in one single document. Our goal is for both theoretical and empirical ecologists to be able to use the theory to interpret their findings, and to get a precise sense of the limits of its applicability. To this end, we introduce an explicit handling of limiting factors, and a new way of defining the scaling factors that partition invasion growth rates into the different mechanisms contributing to coexistence. We explain terminology such as relative nonlinearity, storage effect, and growth-density covariance, both in a formal setting and through their biological interpretation. We review the theory's applications and contributions to our current understanding of species coexistence. While the theory is very general, it is not well suited to all problems, so we carefully point out its limitations. Finally, we critique the paradigm of decomposing invasion growth rates into stabilizing and equalizing components: we argue that these concepts are useful when used judiciously, but have often been employed in an overly simplified way to justify false claims.
Journal Article
Rainfall–runoff modelling using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks
Rainfall–runoff modelling is one of the key challenges in the field of hydrology. Various approaches exist, ranging from physically based over conceptual to fully data-driven models. In this paper, we propose a novel data-driven approach, using the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, a special type of recurrent neural network. The advantage of the LSTM is its ability to learn long-term dependencies between the provided input and output of the network, which are essential for modelling storage effects in e.g. catchments with snow influence. We use 241 catchments of the freely available CAMELS data set to test our approach and also compare the results to the well-known Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA) coupled with the Snow-17 snow routine. We also show the potential of the LSTM as a regional hydrological model in which one model predicts the discharge for a variety of catchments. In our last experiment, we show the possibility to transfer process understanding, learned at regional scale, to individual catchments and thereby increasing model performance when compared to a LSTM trained only on the data of single catchments. Using this approach, we were able to achieve better model performance as the SAC-SMA + Snow-17, which underlines the potential of the LSTM for hydrological modelling applications.
Journal Article
Species coexistence through simultaneous fluctuation-dependent mechanisms
Understanding the origins and maintenance of biodiversity remains one of biology’s grand challenges. From theory and observational evidence, we know that variability in environmental conditions through time is likely critical to the coexistence of competing species. Nevertheless, experimental tests of fluctuation-driven coexistence are rare and have typically focused on just one of two potential mechanisms, the temporal storage effect, to the neglect of the theoretically equally plausible mechanism known as relative nonlinearity of competition. We combined experiments and simulations in a system of nectar yeasts to quantify the relative contribution of the two mechanisms to coexistence. Resource competition models parameterized from single-species assays predicted the outcomes of mixed-culture competition experiments with 83% accuracy. Model simulations revealed that both mechanisms have measurable effects on coexistence and that relative nonlinearity can be equal or greater in magnitude to the temporal storage effect. In addition, we show that their effect on coexistence can be both antagonistic and complementary. These results falsify the common assumption that relative nonlinearity is of negligible importance, and in doing so reveal the importance of testing coexistence mechanisms in combination.
Journal Article
Simulating the Storage and the Blockage Effects of Buildings in Urban Flood Modeling
Buildings often affect overland flow propagation in urban areas. Building walls change the direction and velocity of flow and can exclude interior spaces from flooding. However, water may intrude buildings when the flood level exceeds the height of protection. This study develops an inundation model that represents the resistance and the storage effects of buildings. This model was applied to central Taipei City, which is surrounded by the Danshui and Keelung Rivers. The inundation depth and extent were compared from models where the effects of buildings were included and excluded. Rainfall data from the Typhoon Nari event in 2001 was used in the simulation. The results showed that in the case where the effects of buildings were excluded inundation was underestimated in the metropolitan areas. Where the effects of buildings were considered in the model, the presented inundation model reproduces the inundation results more comparable with the observed flooding situation.
Journal Article
When rarity has costs
Stable coexistence relies on negative frequency-dependence, in which rarer species invading a patch benefit from a lack of conspecific competition experienced by residents. In nature, however, rarity can have costs, resulting in positive frequency-dependence (PFD) particularly when species are rare. Many processes can cause positive frequency-dependence, including a lack of mates, mutualist interactions, and reproductive interference from heterospecifics. When species become rare in the community, positive frequency-dependence creates vulnerability to extinction, if frequencies drop below certain thresholds. For example, environmental fluctuations can drive species to low frequencies where they are then vulnerable to PFD. Here, we analyze deterministic and stochastic mathematical models of two species interacting through both PFD and resource competition in a Chessonian framework. Reproductive success of individuals in these models is reduced by a product of two terms: the reduction in fecundity due to PFD, and the reduction in fecundity due to competition. Consistent with classical coexistence theory, the effect of competition on individual reproductive success exhibits negative frequency-dependence when individuals experience greater intraspecific competition than interspecific competition, i.e., niche overlap is less than one. In the absence of environmental fluctuations, our analysis reveals that (1) a synergistic effect of PFD and niche overlap that hastens exclusion, (2) trade-offs between susceptibility to PFD and maximal fecundity can mediate coexistence, and (3) coexistence, when it occurs, requires that neither species is initially rare. Analysis of the stochastic model highlights that environmental fluctuations, unless perfectly correlated, coupled with PFD ultimately drive one species extinct. Over any given time frame, this extinction risk decreases with the correlation of the demographic responses of the two species to the environmental fluctuations, and increases with the temporal autocorrelation of these fluctuations. For species with overlapping generations, these trends in extinction risk persist despite the strength of the storage effect decreasing with correlated demographic responses and increasing with temporal autocorrelations. These results highlight how the presence of PFD may alter the outcomes predicted by modern coexistence mechanisms.
Journal Article