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"surprise"
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How to surprise a dad
\"Two siblings provide instructions for how to surprise one's dad, including surprises you can make, do, or find--and how to plan a Special Day surprise party for him\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Negative News and Investor Trust: The Role of $Firm and #CEO Twitter Use
We examine how CEOs can facilitate the development of investor trust that helps mitigate the effects of negative information. Results from an experiment show that investors trust the CEO more and are more willing to invest in the firm when the CEO communicates firm news followed by a negative earnings surprise through a personal Twitter account than when the news and surprise comes from the CEO via a website or from the firm's Investor Relations Twitter account or website. A follow-up experiment shows that repeating the negative news does not incrementally affect investors who received the news from the CEO's Twitter account, but does further negatively impact investors who received the news via other disclosure mediums, especially those who received the news via the Investor Relations Twitter account. Our results have implications for firms and executives considering the costs and benefits of communicating with investors via Twitter.
Journal Article
The Berenstain Bears and the mama's day surprise
As Mother's Day approaches, Papa Bear and the cubs do their best to surprise Mama with breakfast in bed and a gift, and Mama does her best not to ruin the surprise.
Book
Dopaminergic basis for signaling belief updates, but not surprise, and the link to paranoia
Distinguishing between meaningful and meaningless sensory information is fundamental to forming accurate representations of the world. Dopamine is thought to play a central role in processing the meaningful information content of observations, which motivates an agent to update their beliefs about the environment. However, direct evidence for dopamine’s role in human belief updating is lacking. We addressed this question in healthy volunteers who performed a model-based fMRI task designed to separate the neural processing of meaningful and meaningless sensory information. We modeled participant behavior using a normative Bayesian observer model and used the magnitude of the model-derived belief update following an observation to quantify its meaningful information content. We also acquired PET imaging measures of dopamine function in the same subjects. We show that the magnitude of belief updates about task structure (meaningful information), but not pure sensory surprise (meaningless information), are encoded in midbrain and ventral striatum activity. Using PET we show that the neural encoding of meaningful information is negatively related to dopamine-2/3 receptor availability in the midbrain and dexamphetamine-induced dopamine release capacity in the striatum. Trial-by-trial analysis of task performance indicated that subclinical paranoid ideation is negatively related to behavioral sensitivity to observations carrying meaningful information about the task structure. The findings provide direct evidence implicating dopamine in model-based belief updating in humans and have implications for understating the pathophysiology of psychotic disorders where dopamine function is disrupted.
Journal Article
The story of Frog Belly Rat Bone
A boy finds a mysterious treasure in a junkpile and creates a monster to guard it.
Book
Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises— The Role of Information Shocks
Central bank announcements simultaneously convey information about monetary policy and the central bank's assessment of the economic outlook. This paper disentangles these two components and studies their effect on the economy using a structural vector autoregression. It relies on the information inherent in high-frequency co-movement of interest rates and stock prices around policy announcements: a surprise policy tightening raises interest rates and reduces stock prices, while the complementary positive central bank information shock raises both. These two shocks have intuitive and very different effects on the economy. Ignoring the central bank information shocks biases the inference on monetary policy nonneutrality.
Journal Article
Adventures with Grandpa!
Alex remembers all the wonderful adventures he had with his grandpa and decided to do something nice for him in return: throw a surprise party, and the PAW Patrol could help.
Book
An Alternative Explanation for the “Fed Information Effect”
Regressions of private-sector macroeconomic forecast revisions on monetary policy surprises often produce coefficients with signs opposite to standard macroeconomic models. The “Fed information effect” argues these puzzling results are due to monetary policy surprises revealing Fed private information. We show they are also consistent with a “Fed response to news” channel, where both the Fed and professional forecasters respond to incoming economic news. We present new evidence challenging the Fed information effect and supporting the Fed response to news channel, including: regressions that control for economic news, our own survey of professional forecasters, and financial market responses to FOMC announcements.
Journal Article
A hungry lion, or, A dwindling assortment of animals
Members of a large group of animals, including a penguin, two rabbits, and a koala, disappear at an alarming rate--but a hungry lion remains.
Book
Uncertainty marketing tactics: An overview and a unifying framework
Many firms employ marketing tactics, such as surprise boxes, buy-and-reveal deals, random price promotions, and teaser advertisements, in which some information is intentionally undisclosed. Research has examined some of these initiatives, using a broad but often disconnected set of terms, theories, and methods, which we examine and integrate in this conceptual review paper. To lend coherence to the literature and offer a unifying framework for informing marketing practice, we (1) conceptualize these tactics as part of a broader phenomenon referred to as “uncertainty marketing” and define its boundaries, (2) propose and demonstrate that the range of uncertainty marketing tactics can be classified across three types (assortment, promotional, and innovation tactics) and along two core dimensions (stakes and opacity), and (3) examine how firms can obtain a favorable consumer response, thereby deriving testable propositions about consumers’ baseline interest in uncertainty marketing tactics and the factors that can affect this interest. We then discuss the implications of applying this framework in practice and close by offering a prioritized agenda for future research.
Journal Article