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As a result of the rapid development of the construction industry, in recent years, research has increasingly used system dynamics (SD) modelling to determine the positive and negative causal feedback in various management processes. Given SD diverse approach to the management of construction companies and projects, it would be necessary to develop a framework for a system dynamics model (SDM) incorporating the main processes of the Baltic States by identifying and providing a systematic understanding of their distribution. Using literature analysis, this study provides the results of 79 selected scientific literature sources from 1991 to 2020. The obtained information is structured according to the annual volume of publications, country of affiliation, the most successful authors and the most popular scientific journals on the topic of the SD. With the assistance of bibliometric analysis and co-occurrence of keywords, system dynamics management processes in construction companies were structured, choosing the following separate elements: (1) project planning, (2) project management, (3) risk management, (4) project performance, (5) project productivity, (6) sustainability. Using a systematic approach, according to the framework of the model, the characteristics of each management process were classified and identified, dividing them into subgroups. The results of the analysis show that the overview of some SD components or processes is mostly provided, which emphasises its aspects and usability in company management, thus indicating the need to identify the framework of the process module. The introduction of the SD process framework in the company would gradually create a competitive advantage in market conditions.

Dynamic models have long been a common tool to support management of ecological and economic systems and played a prominent role in the early days of resilience research. Model applications have largely focused on policy assessment, the development of optimal management strategies, or analysis of system stability. However, modeling can serve many other purposes such as understanding system responses that emerge from complex interactions of system components, supporting participatory processes, and analyzing consequences of human behavioral complexity. The diversity of purposes, types, and applications of models offers great potential for social-ecological systems (SESs) research, but has created much confusion because modeling approaches originate from different disciplines, are based on different assumptions, focus on different levels of analysis, and use different analytical methods. This diversity makes it difficult to identify which approach is most suitable for addressing a specific question. Here, our aims are: (1) to introduce the most common types of dynamic models used in SESs research and related fields, and (2) to align these models with SESs research aims to support the selection and communication of the most suitable approach for a given study. To this end, we organize modeling approaches into a reference scheme called “modelling for social-ecological systems research” (ModSES) along two dimensions: the degree of realism and the degree of knowledge integration. These two dimensions capture key challenges of SESs research related to the need to account for context dependence and the intertwined nature of SESs as systems of humans embedded in nature across multiple scales, as well as to acknowledge different problem framings, understandings, interests, and values. We highlight the need to be aware of the potentials, limitations, and conceptual backgrounds underlying the different approaches. Critical engagement with modeling for different aims of SESs research can contribute to developing integrative understanding and action toward enhanced resilience and sustainability.

Determining the relative influence of biotic and abiotic processes in structuring communities at local to large spatial scales is best understood using a biogeographic comparative‐experimental approach. Using this approach, previous work suggests that intertidal community dynamics (top‐down and bottom‐up effects) vary unimodally along an upwelling‐based productivity gradient, termed the Intermittent Upwelling Hypothesis (IUH). Evidence consistent with the IUH comes from the sessile invertebrate/predator (SIP) subweb in certain rocky intertidal communities, but whether this pattern extends to macrophyte/herbivore (MH) subwebs is unknown. Here we ask: Are MH subwebs also structured as predicted by the IUH? What is the relative importance of herbivory and predation in structuring these communities? Under what conditions do ecological subsidies like nutrients or propagule production drive community dynamics? And are omnivorous interactions important? We hypothesize that MH subwebs are driven by a new construct, the Grazing‐Weakening Hypothesis (GWH), which states that MH interactions weaken monotonically with increasing nutrients, with strong (weak) herbivory and low (high) macrophyte productivity at low (high) nutrients. We explored local‐to‐large spatial scale dynamics of both subwebs using a biogeographic comparative‐experimental factorial field experiment testing joint and separate effects of herbivores and predators between two continents. Experiments at 10 sites ranging from persistent upwelling to persistent downwelling regimes ran for 26–29 months in Oregon and California, and New Zealand (NZ) South Island. For the MH subweb, results were consistent with the GWH: herbivory declined and macrophytes increased with increasing nutrients. As expected, results for the SIP subweb were consistent with the IUH: predator effect size was unimodally related to upwelling. Overall, herbivory explained more variation in community structure than did predation, especially in NZ. Omnivory was weak, sessile invertebrates outcompeted macrophytes, and ocean‐driven subsidies provided the basic template driving ecosystem dynamics. We propose a unified meta‐ecosystem dynamics model combining MH and SIP results: with increased upwelling, sessile invertebrates and underlying dynamics vary unimodally (as in the IUH), while herbivory decreases and macrophytes generally increase. While this model was based on research in temperate ecosystems varying in upwelling regime, its wider applicability remains to be tested.

Dependence on air-conditioning (AC) for residential cooling and ventilation is a health and sustainability challenge. In hot temperatures, climate-sensitive buildings (CSB) can complement and/or substitute for AC usage in achieving thermal comfort. Many countries facing such conditions—particularly in tropical climates—are developing quickly, with rising populations and income creating demand for new housing and AC. This presents a window for adoption of CSB but could also result in long term lock-in of AC-dependent buildings. Here, a simple system dynamics model is used to explore the potential and limitations of subsidies to affect futures of housing stock and night-time AC usage in Malaysia. The effectiveness of subsidies in achieving high uptake of CSB and resulting health benefits is highly dependent on homebuyer willingness to pay (WTP). A detailed understanding of WTP in the Malaysian context and factors that can shift WTP is necessary to determine if CSB subsidies can be a good policy mechanism for achieving CSB uptake.

The aim of this research is to analyze the current status of water quality in seaweed cultivation environments related to the decline in seaweed production. Field research was conducted in the Seribu Islands Regency, DKI Jakarta, during April and May 2023. The analysis of environmental factors encompassed physical, chemical, and biological parameters at 12 designated sampling points. The results of the analysis of water quality parameters generally meet the requirements, except for oil and grease at 7-51 mg/L and nitrate at 1.60-6.3 mg/L, both of which exceed the quality standards for biota. Plankton analysis shows the total abundance of plankton reaches 36 to 9,070 ind/L. Evaluation of the suitability class shows that the waters are in class S (Suitable). The Pollution Index value ranges from 6.51 to 8.05, indicating a fairly polluted status. The high levels of oil and grease, nitrate, and the presence of index pollutants have a significant influence on the decline in seaweed production in the Seribu Islands Regency. The preparation of improvement strategies can be conducted using a System Dynamics Model approach, involving the creation of comprehensive Causal Loop Diagrams. This process considers four key factors: environmental water quality, human resources, technology, and seaweed.

The construction of prefabricated buildings is an effective and efficient approach to improving construction processes and productivity. However, there are practical problems in this approach, such as listing, safety risk levels, and quality control. This study aims to develop a systematic approach for determining the key factors affecting prefabricated building projects’ quality and safety risk and assessing this risk. Based on the literature review, a structured questionnaire was distributed to 408 China-based construction organizations. Considering the factors of safety risk evaluation systems for construction, the safety risk model of prefabricated buildings is established and combined with structural equation modeling (SEM) and a system dynamic model (SDM). A detailed case study was conducted to verify the empirical findings. The results show that pre-construction, during-construction, and after-construction significantly influence the quality risk (from high to low). The final comprehensive score is 92.71, indicating that the construction safety of the residential building is generally controllable and the quality is guaranteed. Furthermore, the investment risk of such projects can be assessed using SEM and SDM. This study contributes to the literature by considering quality-risk-influencing factors in this field. Furthermore, the findings provide an understanding of implementation and quality risk control for prefabricated building projects and provide valuable information to departments in charge of improving the safety risk performance of such projects.

Most of the cities in developing countries are experiencing rapid urbanization. Land use change driven by urban sprawl, population growth, and intensified socio-economic activities have led to a steep decline of ecosystem service value (ESV) in rapid urbanization areas, and decision-makers often ignore some valuable ecosystem service functions and values in land use planning. In this paper, we attempt to build a modeling framework which integrated System Dynamics model with Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small Extent model to simulate the dynamics of ESV of landscape and explore the potential impacts of land use change on ESV. We take Baoshan district of Shanghai as an example which is a fast urbanization area of metropolitan in China. The results of the study indicate that: (1) The integrated methodology can improve the characterization and presentation of the dynamics of ESV, which may give insight into understanding the possible impacts of land use change on ESV and provide information for land use planning. (2) Land use polices can affect the magnitude and location of ESV both directly and indirectly. Land use changes tend to weaken and simplify ecosystem service functions and values of landscape at urban rural fringe where land use change is more intensive. (3) The application of the methodology has proved that the integration of currently existing models within a single modeling framework could be a beneficial exploration, and should be encouraged and enhanced in the future research on the changing dynamics of ESV due to the complexity of ecosystem services and land use system.

With the rapid economic development in the past decades, industrialization and urbanization in China has also rapidly developed and will continue in the next decades. However, the regional water shortage has posed great challenges for the sustainable development of big cities especially in north China. Here, we used the water ecological footprint model combined with the system dynamic model to assess the water resource carrying capacity and its sustainability in Zhangjiakou City, a typical water shortage city in north China. The calculated results showed that irrigation was the largest water consumer in Zhangjiakou. There existed a clear gap between water supply and water consumption in this city and such a gap is demonstrated by the high water resource pressure index. Our predicted results based on the water resource ecological footprint and the system dynamic model showed that although the improving water use efficiency has relieved the regional water shortage pressure, the efficiency gained would be to a large degree offset by increased water demands due to the increasing economic development. The annual average water shortage in Zhangjiakou in 2007–2050 would be up to 8.53 × 10 8  m 3 , nearly half of the total local average annual water resource. To deal with the severe water shortage over the next three decades, great attention should be paid to scientific water resource managements and water pollution control. This research provides a long-term view of water resource pressure and provides recommendations for a sustainable water use under the rapid regional socioeconomic development.

PurposeThe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has emerged as an unprecedented health crisis worldwide and heavily disrupted the healthcare supply chain. This study focuses on analysing the different types of disruptions occurring in personal protective equipment (PPE) supply chains during the COVID-19 pandemic and on proposing mitigation strategies that are fit to the global scale and many interdependencies that are characteristic for this pandemic. The authors construct a conceptual system dynamics model (SD) based on the literature and adjusted with the use of empirical data (interviews) to capture the complexity of a global supply chain and identify leverage points (mitigation strategies).Design/methodology/approachThis research follows a mix-methods approach. First, the authors developed a conceptual framework based on four types of disruptions that usually occur during health emergencies (direct effect, policy, supply chain strategy, and behaviourally induced disruptions). Second, the authors collected and analysed data from interviews with experts in the PPE supply chain. Based on the interviews data, the authors developed a conceptual system dynamics (SD) model that allows to capture the complex and dynamic interplay between the elements of the global supply chain system, by highlighting key feedback loops, delays, and the way the mitigation strategies can impact on them. From this analysis, the authors developed four propositions for supply chain risk management (SCRM) in global health emergencies and four recommendations for the policy and decision makers.FindingsThe SD model highlights that without a combination of mitigation measures, it is impossible to overcome all disruptions. As such, a co-ordinated effort across the different countries and sectors that experience the disruptions is needed. The SD model also shows that there are important feedback loops, by which initial disruptions create delays and shortages that propagate through the supply chain network. If the co-ordinated mitigation measures are not implemented early at the onset of the pandemic, these disruptions will be persistent, creating potential shortages of PPE and other critical equipment at the onset of a pandemic – when they are most urgently needed.Originality/valueThis research enriches the understanding of the disruptions of PPE supply chains on the systems level and proposes mitigation strategies based on empirical data and the existing literature.