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Comment on “A Glimpse at An Operation Analyst’s World War II Work: ‘Report on the Combat Performance of the Remote Control Turrets of B-29 Aircraft”' by Alex E. S. Green, Deborah S. Green, and Richard L. Francis

This model examines the role of intelligence gathering and screening in providing airport security. We analyze this problem using a game between the government and a terrorist. By investing in intelligence gathering, the government can improve the precision of its information. In contrast, screening can be used to search a passenger and thereby deter terrorist attacks. We determine the optimal allocation of resources between these two strategies wherein we model the role of intelligence using the concept of supermodular precision. One striking result is that under certain circumstances, an increase in the investment in intelligence can induce a more devious terrorist to attack with a higher probability. We also find that when there is a cost-reducing innovation in the screening technology, then the optimal investment in intelligence gathering can go either way. However, such an innovation unambiguously improves social welfare. Another interesting implication is that a developed economy would value intelligence inputs more than a developing economy. We also examine the efficacy of a program such as PreCheck that allows some select passengers expedited screening in exchange for voluntarily revealing information about themselves. Our analysis shows that such a program can be used to cushion the adverse effect of budgetary shortages. Finally, we also examine the role of enhanced punishment on the optimal level of intelligence. We find that the result can go both ways. If the initial level of punishment is high, then any further enhancement reduces the optimal level of intelligence gathering. However, this result is reversed if the initial level of punishment is low.

Alex Green was a pioneering operations analyst/researcher for the U.S. Army Air Force during World War II. His February 1945 operations analysis “Report on the Combat Performance of the Remote Control Turrets of B-29 Aircraft” was classified and buried for 70 years. Stationed in the China-Burma-India theatre and addressing a problem of combat losses posed by General Curtis LeMay, Green used written reports and interviews to draw conclusions regarding direction of enemy attack on the B-29s, opposite those of a large stateside simulation study. Resulting in LeMay’s changes in B-29 flight formations and frontal armaments, his report also addressed B-29 gun dispersion adjustments and modifications to the analog computer in the plane’s nose. This paper examines how Green drew his conclusions under wartime conditions before digital computers. Apart from the extraordinary advances in computer technology, much of his methodology is still relevant today and a part of operations research (OR). This paper offers a window into the origins of OR and remarkable efforts of its pioneers.

We consider a scenario in which a single Red wishes to shoot at a collection of Blue targets, one at a time, to maximise some measure of return obtained from Blues killed before Red's own (possible) demise. Such a situation arises in various military contexts, such as the conduct of air defence by Red in the face of Blue SEAD (suppression of enemy air defences). A class of decision processes called multiarmed bandits has been previously deployed to develop optimal policies for Red, in which she attaches a calibrating (Gittins) index to each Blue target and optimally shoots next at the Blue with the largest index value. The current paper seeks to elucidate how a range of developments of index theory are able to accommodate features of such problems, which are of practical military import. Such features include levels of risk to Red that are policy dependent, Red having imperfect information about the Blues she faces, an evolving population of Blue targets, and the possibility of Red disengagement. The paper concludes with a numerical study that both compares the performance of (optimal) index policies to a range of competitors and also demonstrates the value to Red of (optimal) disengagement.

In this paper, we propose a stochastic version of the salvo model for modern naval surface combat. We derive expressions for the mean and variance of surviving force strengths and for the probabilities of the possible salvo outcomes in forms simple enough to be implemented in spreadsheet software. Numerical comparisons of the deterministic and stochastic models indicate that while the two models tend to provide similar estimates of the average number of ships surviving a salvo, this average by itself can be highly misleading with respect to the likely outcomes of the battle. Our results also suggest that a navy’s preferences for risk (variability) and armament (offensive versus defensive) will depend on not only its mission objectives but also on whether it expects to fight from a position of strength or of weakness.

This chapter contains sections titled: Introduction Tactics: Military and Political Strategy Geostrategy Conclusion

Intelligence preparation of the battlefield (IPB), the Army's traditional methodology for finding and analyzing relevant information for its operations, is not effective for tackling the operational and intelligence challenges of urban operations. The authors suggest new ways to categorize the complex terrain, infrastructure, and populations of urban environments and incorporate this information into Army planning and decisionmaking processes.

Arrests of women for assault increased more than 40 percent over the past decade, while male arrests for this offense have fallen by about one percent. Some studies report that for the first time ever the rate of reported intimate partner abuse among men and women is nearly equal. Susan L. Miller's timely book explores the important questions raised by these startling statistics. Are women finally closing the gender gap on violence? Or does this phenomenon reflect a backlash shaped by men who batter? How do abusive men use the criminal justice system to increase control over their wives? Do police, courts, and treatment providers support aggressive arrest policies for women? Are these women \"victims\" or \"offenders\"? In answering these questions, Miller draws on extensive data from a study of police behavior in the field, interviews with criminal justice professionals and social service providers, and participant observation of female offender programs. She offers a critical analysis of the theoretical assumptions framing the study of violence and provides insight into the often contradictory implications of the mandatory and pro-arrest policies enacted in the 1980s and 1990s. Miller argues that these enforcement strategies, designed to protect women, have often victimized women in different ways. Without sensationalizing, Miller unveils a reality that looks very different from what current statistics on domestic violence imply.

In recent years, American strategic circles, including think tanks, Congress and government, have paid close attention to China's \"Military-Civil Fusion\" development strategy. The U. S. strategic circles believe that the strategy takes advantage of the \"transparent, free and open\" environment of international scientific research cooperation and global business practice, and adopts a variety of \"technology transfer\" tactics including \"cyber theft,\" \"commercial espionage,\" overseas venture capital, talent recruitment, strategic acquisition, sending overseas students to study STEM, etc., to obtain advanced military and civilian dual-use technologies in the United States and the West, so as to \"catch up with the military modernization of the United States.\" China's pursuit of strengthening the army through \"Military-Civil Fusion\" poses an \"unprecedented challenge\" to the global innovation leadership and military superiority of the United States. Based on the above negative cognition, the United States not only in

Multiple breeding within the same season is a typical reproductive strategy among short-lived species. Despite the apparent increase in the number of offspring, not all individuals become multiple breeders in most species or populations, known as facultative multiple breeding (FMB). Elucidating the mechanisms producing FMB would be a significant contribution to a better understanding of the complex life histories in wild populations. In the present study, we regarded FMB as a female alternative reproductive tactic (ART) and examined the factors affecting reproductive decisions. ARTs have been investigated mostly in males and male conditions. However, in many bird species both parents raise their offspring and, therefore, a partner’s condition may also affect ARTs. We analyzed 6 years of data on multiple breeding in Japanese tits ( Parus minor ) in northern Japan, where nearly half of breeding pairs reproduce multiple times within breeding seasons. We found that females started breeding early were more likely to breed again in that season. Also, females paired with older males start breeding earlier, suggesting that factors associated with male age, such as territory quality, influence whether a female has multiple broods or not. We found no trade-off between multiple breeding and female apparent survival. Rather, multiple breeders exhibited a higher apparent survival than single breeders. These results suggested that late-started females may take an alternative tactic by avoiding the cost of second breeding and concentrating on post-fledging care of the first broods. We also demonstrated the partner’s roles in the decision of conditional strategy.