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Despite recent increase in foreign direct investment (FDI), empirical literature examining its economic impact remains relatively limited. This study investigates the impact of FDI inflows on total factor productivity (TFP) using a panel of 30 selected African countries for the period 1996-2019, aiming to provide novel evidence based on threshold analysis. FDI benefits in African host countries are conditional: they positively impact TFP only when host countries exceed minimum thresholds for human capital (0.907), infrastructure (-0.5600), and good governance (-0.0260). Below these thresholds, FDI negatively affects TFP. Based on the empirical findings of this study, it is recommended that African countries prioritise reaching certain minimum levels of human capital, infrastructure, and good governance before implementing pro-FDI policies. Attracting large volumes of FDI before reaching the required threshold level yields negative TFP outcomes.

Max-stable processes are increasingly widely used for modelling complex extreme events, but existing fitting methods are computationally demanding, limiting applications to a few dozen variables. r-Pareto processes are mathematically simpler and have the potential advantage of incorporating all relevant extreme events, by generalizing the notion of a univariate exceedance. In this paper we investigate the use of proper scoring rules for high-dimensional peaks-over-threshold inference, focusing on extreme-value processes associated with log-Gaussian random functions, and compare gradient score estimators with the spectral and censored likelihood estimators for regularly varying distributions with normalized marginals, using data with several hundred locations. When simulating from the true model, the spectral estimator performs best, closely followed by the gradient score estimator, but censored likelihood estimation performs better with simulations from the domain of attraction, though it is outperformed by the gradient score in cases of weak extremal dependence. We illustrate the potential and flexibility of our ideas by modelling extreme rainfall on a grid with 3600 locations, based on exceedances for locally intense and for spatially accumulated rainfall, and discuss diagnostics of model fit. The differences between the two fitted models highlight how the definition of rare events affects the estimated dependence structure.

Significance To aid in prioritizing the development of tuberculosis (TB) vaccines most likely to reach the 2050 TB elimination goal, we estimated the impact and cost-effectiveness of a range of vaccine profiles in low- and middle-income countries. Using mathematical modeling, we show that vaccines targeted at adolescents/adults could have a much greater impact on the TB burden over a 2024–2050 time horizon than those vaccines targeted at infants. Such vaccines could also be cost-effective, even with relatively high vaccine prices. Our results suggest that to achieve the 2050 elimination goals, future TB vaccine development should focus on vaccines targeted at adolescents/adults, even if only relatively low efficacies and short durations of protection are technically feasible. To help reach the target of tuberculosis (TB) disease elimination by 2050, vaccine development needs to occur now. We estimated the impact and cost-effectiveness of potential TB vaccines in low- and middle-income countries using an age-structured transmission model. New vaccines were assumed to be available in 2024, to prevent active TB in all individuals, to have a 5-y to lifetime duration of protection, to have 40–80% efficacy, and to be targeted at “infants” or “adolescents/adults.” Vaccine prices were tiered by income group (US $1.50–$10 per dose), and cost-effectiveness was assessed using incremental cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted compared against gross national income per capita. Our results suggest that over 2024–2050, a vaccine targeted to adolescents/adults could have a greater impact than one targeted at infants. In low-income countries, a vaccine with a 10-y duration and 60% efficacy targeted at adolescents/adults could prevent 17 (95% range: 11–24) million TB cases by 2050 and could be considered cost-effective at $149 (cost saving to $387) per DALY averted. If targeted at infants, 0.89 (0.42–1.58) million TB cases could be prevented at $1,692 ($634–$4,603) per DALY averted. This profile targeted at adolescents/adults could be cost-effective at $4, $9, and $20 per dose in low-, lower-middle–, and upper-middle–income countries, respectively. Increased investments in adult-targeted TB vaccines may be warranted, even if only short duration and low efficacy vaccines are likely to be feasible, and trials among adults should be powered to detect low efficacies.

This study, based on the context of rainstorm and flood disasters, explored the coupling, coordination, and decoupling between humans and the built environment. Combining the coupling coordination model with the Tapio decoupling model, the coupling situation in 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui province from 2009 to 2020 was analyzed. A random forest method combined with recursive feature elimination was used to identify key driving factors. Constraint line extraction and elasticity analysis were used to determine the response and threshold of the coupling coordination to these driving factors. The results showed an overall upward trend in the coupling coordination of the 16 prefecture-level cities, and in most years, the decoupling between humans and the built environment exhibited varying degrees of coupling intensity. Using the decoupling index (DI) of 0.8 and 1.2 as classification thresholds, the vast majority of the sample exhibited a developmental decoupling pattern, with only a few cities exhibiting a decline-type decoupling pattern in a few years, which is generally consistent with the changing trend of the coupling coordination. GDP, urbanization rate, number of people with college or higher education per 100,000 people, economic losses from flooding, population affected by floods, length of drainage pipes, registered urban unemployment rate, and number of medical institutions are important drivers of changes in the coupling coordination degree. This study provides important insights into the relationship between people and the built environment in the context of heavy rain and flooding, and offers valuable reference and guidance for research and practice in related fields.

Comprehensive evaluation and identification of the critical regulatory determinants of carbon emission efficiency (CEE) are very important for China’s low-carbon transition. Accordingly, this paper first employs an undesirable global super-hybrid measure approach to calculate the CEE of China’s iron and steel industry (ISI). We then further use spatial error and threshold regression models to examine the spatial and non-linear effects of heterogeneous environmental regulations on CEE, respectively. Our empirical results show that (1) CEE varies significantly across China’s regions, with the eastern region having the highest CEE score, followed by the western and central regions, with the northeast region ranking the lowest; (2) command-and-control and market-incentive regulations both promote CEE, whereas the public participation approach does not significantly contribute to performance gains; (3) all three types of environmental regulations exhibit a non-linear threshold effect on CEE; (4) openness level, technological progress, and industrial concentration enhance efficiency gains, while urbanization level exerts a negative impact on CEE. Our findings have important implications for the design of environmental regulations.

Key recent developments in litter decomposition research are reviewed. Long-term inter-site experiments indicate that temperature and moisture influence early rates of litter decomposition primarily by determining the plants present, suggesting that climate change effects will be small unless they alter the plant forms present. Thresholds may exist at which single factors control decay rate. Litter decomposes faster where the litter type naturally occurs. Elevated CO₂ concentrations have little effect on litter decomposition rates. Plant tissues are not decay-resistant; it is microbial and biochemical transformations of materials into novel recalcitrant compounds rather than selective preservation of recalcitrant compounds that creates stable organic matter. Altering single characteristics of litter will not substantially alter decomposition rates. Nitrogen addition frequently leads to greater stabilization into humus through a combination of chemical reactions and enzyme inhibition. To sequester more C in soil, we need to consider not how to slow decomposition, but rather how to divert more litter into humus through microbial and chemical reactions rather than allowing it to decompose. The optimal strategy is to have litter transformed into humic substances and then chemically or physically protected in mineral soil. Adding N through fertilization and N-fixing plants is a feasible means of stimulating humification.

This study uses data from 1901 to 2023 to investigate the long-term spatiotemporal variations and trends in monsoon rainfall. It also looks at how these changes may affect Kharif Paddy production in the state’s agro-climatic zones from 2000 to 2022. The Pettitt test was used to identify sudden alterations in rainfall patterns, and the Mann–Kendall (MK) test was used to assess rainfall trends. The findings show that most districts in Odisha have no significant change in monsoon rainfall, indicating a generally consistent pattern over the past 123 years. Only Sundergarh in the North-Western Plateau Zone showed a significant negative trend (-2.51), highlighting potential localized vulnerabilities. Change detection analysis shows the probable change years vary by districts (under agro-climatic zones) ranging from 1919 to 2009, whereas inter-seasonal rainfall variability was recorded to increase after 1980. The relationship between GPP and rainfall revealed non-linear characterises. Meanwhile, the seasonal trend from 2000 to 2022 showed a favourable increase in Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), averaging 10.88 gC/m 2 per year. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the GPP of forested areas in a region or district is more responsive to rainfall fluctuations than cropped areas within Odisha’s agro-climatic zones. Additionally, threshold analysis was conducted to identify the optimal range of monsoon rainfall that maximizes GPP for the studied districts across different agro-climatic zones. Understanding long-term rainfall variability is crucial for ensuring sustainable agricultural productivity, particularly in monsoon-dependent regions like Odisha, where shifting precipitation patterns can significantly affect Kharif paddy production.

INTRODUCTION Countries have varying, limited healthcare budgets for emerging disease‐modifying therapies. Cost‐effectiveness analysis, combined with country‐level cost‐effectiveness thresholds, can be used to estimate value‐based prices (VBPs) for lecanemab and donanemab across 174 countries. METHODS The cost‐effectiveness of lecanemab and donanemab was estimated using incremental cost and quality‐adjusted life years (QALYs) compared to usual care. Published cost‐effectiveness thresholds were used to estimate VBPs of these drugs across 174 countries. RESULTS Compared to usual care, lecanemab and donanemab respectively increased average QALYs by 0.38 and 0.51. By country income status, VBPs for lecanemab and donanemab respectively ranged between254 to 9434 and387 to 13,964 (high income),90 to 1025 and137 to 1507 (upper middle income),11 to 623 and21 to 956 (lower middle income) and4 to 18 and9 to 32 (low income). DISCUSSION VBPs indicate how much 174 countries should be willing to pay. This framework can also be adapted and refined in the negotiation of country pricing. Highlights DMTs produce better health outcomes than usual care. Evidence that DMTs are likely to be cost‐effective will be required in most markets. In markets where they are approved, DMTs remain unaffordable. VBPs could help accelerate access to DMTs worldwide. This framework offers flexibility that can be refined in country‐level price negotiations.

Motion structure analysis is a ubiquitous tool for the evaluation of the dynamical properties of various objects. Automation of image analysis allows not only speeding up the research, but also eliminating the subjective bias characteristic inevitable under manual data processing conditions. The complexity of this task increases dramatically when not one, but several objects of interest are simultaneously tracked using the same videos. In turn, this requires specialized algorithms that uniquely associate selected objects with tracks. Here we present an original algorithm for multiple objects tracking based on computer vision algorithms developed for the image segmentation, as well as subsequent adaptive object selection and tracking. This approach is particularly tailored to the complex motion patterns typically exhibited by natural movements of the living objects of interest in biomedical and ecological research from microscales (e.g., microbes or cells) to macroscales (e.g. animals in laboratory or natural living conditions). The data processing pipeline implementing the proposed algorithms, as well as their validation using simulated data are available at https://github.com/Digiratory/StatTools/blob/main/research/kalman_filter.ipynb.