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In human-modified tropical landscapes (HMLs) the conservation of biodiversity, functions and services of forest ecosystems depends on persistence of old growth forest remnants, forest regeneration in abandoned agricultural fields, and restoration of degraded lands. Understanding the impacts of agricultural land uses (ALUs) on forest regeneration is critical for biodiversity conservation in HMLs. Here, we develop a conceptual framework that considers the availability of propagules and the environment prevailing after field abandonment as two major determinants of forest regeneration in HMLs. The framework proposes that regeneration potential decreases with size, duration and severity of agricultural disturbance, reducing propagule availability and creating ill-suited environmental conditions for regeneration. We used studies from Southern Mexico to assess this framework. First, we identify regeneration bottlenecks that trees face during transit from seed to follow-up life stages, using demographic analysis of dominant pioneer species in recently abandoned fields. Then, we explore effects of ALUs on forest regeneration at the field and landscape scales, addressing major legacies. Finally, we integrate agricultural disturbance with landscape composition to predict attributes of successful second growth forests in HMLs, and provide indicators useful to select tree native species for active restoration. An indicator of disturbance inflicted by ALUs, based on farmers’ information, predicted better regeneration potential than measurements of soil and microclimate conditions at time of abandonment. Cover of cattle pastures in the landscape was a stronger indicator of forest regenerating attributes than cover of old growth forest remnants. To conclude, we offer recommendations to promote forest regeneration and biodiversity conservation in HMLs.

The future trajectory of global forests is closely intertwined with tree demography, and a major fundamental goal in ecology is to understand the key mechanisms governing spatio‐temporal patterns in tree population dynamics. While previous research has made substantial progress in identifying the mechanisms individually, their relative importance among forests remains unclear mainly due to practical limitations. One approach to overcome these limitations is to group mechanisms according to their shared effects on the variability of tree vital rates and quantify patterns therein. We developed a conceptual and statistical framework (variance partitioning of Bayesian multilevel models) that attributes the variability in tree growth, mortality, and recruitment to variation in species, space, and time, and their interactions – categories we refer to as organising principles (OPs). We applied the framework to data from 21 forest plots covering more than 2.9 million trees of approximately 6500 species. We found that differences among species, the species OP, proved a major source of variability in tree vital rates, explaining 28–33% of demographic variance alone, and 14–17% in interaction with space, totalling 40–43%. Our results support the hypothesis that the range of vital rates is similar across global forests. However, the average variability among species declined with species richness, indicating that diverse forests featured smaller interspecific differences in vital rates. Moreover, decomposing the variance in vital rates into the proposed OPs showed the importance of unexplained variability, which includes individual variation, in tree demography. A focus on how demographic variance is organized in forests can facilitate the construction of more targeted models with clearer expectations of which covariates might drive a vital rate. This study therefore highlights the most promising avenues for future research, both in terms of understanding the relative contributions of groups of mechanisms to forest demography and diversity, and for improving projections of forest ecosystems.

Second‐growth forests account for 40% of the terrestrial forest carbon sink and represent the dominant forest cover in tropical regions. Uncertainties in predicting responses of these ecosystems to climate change arise from high tree species diversity, complex links between eco‐physiology and demography, and the role of ontogeny and competition in mediating individual tree responses to climate. The dynamic nature of second‐growth forests adds further uncertainty to our ability to quantify the relative importance of climate in mediating successional trajectories. To address these uncertainties, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian neighbourhood modelling approach that quantifies how the joint response of two key functional axes, wood density and specific leaf area (SLA), modulate impacts of inter‐annual variation in seasonal water stress (number of days during dry season > 1 kPa vapour pressure deficit) and night‐time temperature on growth and survival of small (5–10 cm dbh) and large (≥ 10 cm dbh) trees for 171 rainforest species in 6 s‐growth and 2 old‐growth 1‐ha mapped stands. We use model results to examine potential climate impacts on the successional trajectories of these stands. High water stress reduced large tree growth but favoured growth of small trees. Drought also reduced tree survival for both large and small trees. Tree species with high wood density suffered lower growth reductions and had higher survival under water stress. High SLA magnified the negative effects of water stress on tree growth and survival. Across all tree sizes, high night‐time temperatures did not influence growth or survival. Simulated successional trajectories under different climate scenarios using these results suggest that multi‐annual droughts will have substantial impacts of the successional trajectories of tropical forests, leading to lower stem numbers, basal area and biomass. Sustained drought will also shift functional composition of second‐growth forest by favouring species with low SLA which tend to dominate in late stages of succession. By incorporating trait‐mediated effects on key drivers of tree demography and successional dynamics, our approach provides an integrated perspective on interspecific variation in vulnerability to drought and consequences for successional trajectories in tropical rainforests. Our results suggest that multi‐annual drought stress will significantly alter structure, composition and dynamics of second‐growth forests and, from a functional perspective, accelerate succession. However, this effect may be hampered by dispersal limitation of old‐growth species into second‐growth forests.

Second-growth tropical forests are an important global carbon sink. As current knowledge on biomass accumulation during secondary succession is heavily based on chronosequence studies, direct estimates of annual rates of biomass accumulation in monitored stands are largely unavailable. We evaluated the contributions of tree diameter increment, recruitment, and mortality to annual tree biomass change during succession for three groups of tree species: second-growth (SG) specialists, generalists, and old-growth (OG) specialists. We monitored six second-growth tropical forests that varied in stand age and two old-growth forests in northeastern Costa Rica. We monitored these over a period of 8 to 16 years. To assess rates of biomass change during secondary succession, we compared standing biomass and biomass dynamics between second-growth forest stages and old-growth forest, and evaluated the effect of stand age on standing biomass and biomass dynamics in second-growth forests.  Standing tree biomass increased with stand age during succession, whereas the rate of biomass change decreased. Biomass change was largely driven by tree diameter increment and mortality, with a minor contribution from recruitment. The relative importance of these demographic drivers shifted over succession. Biomass gain due to tree diameter increment decreased with stand age, whereas biomass loss due to mortality increased. In the age range of our second-growth forests, 10-41 years, SG specialists dominated tree biomass in second-growth forests. SG specialists, and to a lesser extent generalists, also dominated stand-level biomass increase due to tree diameter increment, whereas SG specialists largely accounted for decreases in biomass due to mortality. Our results indicate that tree growth is largely driving biomass dynamics early in succession, whereas both growth and mortality are important later in succession. Biomass dynamics are largely accounted for by a few SG specialists and one generalist species, Pentaclethra macroloba . To assess the generality of our results, similar long-term studies should be compared across tropical forest landscapes.

The magnitude of the carbon sink in second-growth forests is expected to vary with successional biomass dynamics resulting from tree growth, recruitment, and mortality, and with the effects of climate on these dynamics. We compare aboveground biomass dynamics of dry and wet Neotropical forests, based on monitoring data gathered over 3–16 years in forests covering the first 25 years of succession. We estimated standing biomass, annual biomass change, and contributions of tree growth, recruitment, and mortality. We also evaluated tree species’ contributions to biomass dynamics. Absolute rates of biomass change were lower in dry forests, 2.3 and 1.9 Mg ha⁻¹ y⁻¹, after 5–15 and 15–25 years after abandonment, respectively, than in wet forests, with 4.7 and 6.1 Mg ha⁻¹ y⁻¹, in the same age classes. Biomass change was largely driven by tree growth, accounting for at least 48% of biomass change across forest types and age classes. Mortality also contributed strongly to biomass change in wet forests of 5–15 years, whereas its contribution became important later in succession in dry forests. Biomass dynamics tended to be dominated by fewer species in early-successional dry than wet forests, but dominance was strong in both forest types. Overall, our results indicate that biomass dynamics during succession are faster in Neotropical wet than dry forests, with high tree mortality earlier in succession in the wet forests. Long-term monitoring of second-growth tropical forest plots is crucial for improving estimates of annual biomass change, and for enhancing understanding of the underlying mechanisms and demographic drivers.

Key Message Southern temperate rainforests harbor exceptional endemic biodiversity and large carbon stocks but remain underrepresented in global monitoring networks. Here, we present a dataset and standardized census protocol from a 1-ha permanent plot in an old-growth temperate rainforest in Chiloé, Chile. The data obtained in two censuses (2014, 2024) reveal that the forest has abundant regeneration but offsets high mortality and biomass accumulation in large trees. This dataset establishes the first long-term demographic baseline for these forests, enabling future censuses to assess how warming and drying trends may alter tree recruitment, growth, and mortality dynamics. Dataset access is at  https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17398246  and metadata are available at: https://metadata-afs.nancy.inra.fr/geonetwork/srv/fre/catalog.search#/metadata/7a3e9aca-9125-4ab3-a072-10b034eb122b .

Forest resource reporting techniques primarily use the two most recent measurements for understanding forest change. Multiple remeasurements now exist within the US national forest inventory (NFI), providing an opportunity to examine long-term forest demographics. We leverage two decades of remeasurements to quantify live-dead wood demographics which can better inform estimates of resource changes in forest ecosystems. Our overall objective is to identify opportunities and gaps in tracking 20 years of forest demographics within the US NFI using east Texas as a pilot study region given its diversity of tree species, prevalence of managed conditions, frequency of disturbances, and relatively rapid change driven by a warm, humid climate. We examine growth and mortality rates, identify transitions to downed dead wood/litter and removal via harvest, and describe implications of these processes focusing on key species groups (i.e., loblolly pine, post oak, and water oak) and size classes (i.e., saplings, small and large trees). Growth and mortality rates fluctuated differently over time by species and stem sizes in response to large-scale disturbances, namely the 2011 drought in Texas. Tree-fall rates were highest in saplings and snag-fall rates trended higher in smaller trees. For removal rates, different stem sizes generally followed similar patterns within each species group. Forest demographics from the field-based US NFI are informative for identifying diffuse lagged mortality, species- and size-specific effects, and management effects. Moreover, researchers continually seek to employ ancillary data and develop new statistical methods to enhance understanding of forest resource changes from field-based inventories.

Long-distance seed dispersal (LDD) is considered a crucial determinant of tree distributions, but its effects depend on demographic processes that enable seeds to establish into adults and that remain poorly understood at large spatial scales. We estimated rates of seed arrival, germination, and survival and growth for a canopy tree species ( Miliusa horsfieldii ), in a landscape ranging from evergreen forest, where the species' abundance is high, to deciduous forest, where it is extremely low. We then used an individual-based model (IBM) to predict sapling establishment and to compare the relative importance of seed arrival and establishment in explaining the observed distribution of seedlings. Individuals in deciduous forest, far from the source population, experienced multiple benefits (e.g., increased germination rate and seedling survival and growth) from being in a habitat where conspecifics were almost absent. The net effect of these spatial differences in demographic processes was significantly higher estimated sapling establishment probabilities for seeds dispersed long distances into deciduous forest. Despite the high rate of establishment in this habitat, Miliusa is rare in the deciduous forest because the arrival of seeds at long distances from the source population is extremely low. Across the entire landscape, the spatial pattern of seed arrival is much more important than the spatial pattern of establishment for explaining observed seedling distributions. By using dynamic models to link demographic data to spatial patterns, we show that LDD plays a pivotal role in the distribution of this tree in its native habitat.

The application of functional traits to predict and explain plant species’ distributions and vital rates has been a major direction in functional ecology for decades, yet numerous physiological traits have not yet been incorporated into the approach. Using commonly measured traits such as leaf mass per area (LMA) and wood density (WD), and additional traits related to water transport, gas exchange and resource economics, including leaf vein, stomatal and wilting traits, we tested hypotheses for Hawaiian wet montane and lowland dry forests (MWF and LDF, respectively): (1) Forests would differ in a wide range of traits as expected from contrasting adaptation; (2) trait values would be more convergent among dry than wet forest species due to the stronger environmental filtering; (3) traits would be intercorrelated within “modules” supporting given functions; (4) relative growth rate (RGR) and mortality rate (m) would correlate with a number of specific traits; with (5) stronger relationships when stratifying by tree size; and (6) RGR and m can be strongly explained from trait‐based models. The MWF species’ traits were associated with adaptation to high soil moisture and nutrient supply and greater shade tolerance, whereas the LDF species’ traits were associated with drought tolerance. Thus, on average, MWF species achieved higher maximum heights than LDF species and had leaves with larger epidermal cells, higher maximum stomatal conductance and CO2 assimilation rate, lower vein lengths per area, higher saturated water content and greater shrinkage when dry, lower dry matter content, higher phosphorus concentration, lower nitrogen to phosphorus ratio, high chlorophyll to nitrogen ratio, high carbon isotope discrimination, high stomatal conductance to nitrogen ratio, less negative turgor loss point and lower WD. Functional traits were more variable in the MWF than LDF, were correlated within modules, and predicted species’ RGR and m across forests, with stronger relationships when stratifying by tree size. Models based on multiple traits predicted vital rates across forests (R2 = 0.70–0.72; p < 0.01). Our findings are consistent with a powerful role of broad suites of functional traits in contributing to forest species’ distributions, integrated plant design and vital rates. A plain language summary is available for this article. Plain Language Summary

Forests, both natural and managed, provide a critical habitat for a significant part of global biodiversity. Among many different groups of forest biota, tree species occupy a special position as they create conditions upon which the existence of virtually all other forest organisms depends, either directly or indirectly. To permanently play this role, particular tree species must be demographically stable; i.e., their populations should be distinguished by the balanced, size-dependent proportions of individuals representing different developmental stages (from seedlings and saplings to mature and old trees). In this study, we examined the extent to which this condition is met in the managed part of Białowieża Forest in northeastern Poland, an important biodiversity hotspot in Central Europe. Comparison of species-specific equilibrium vs. actual size distributions revealed that almost half of all trees growing in Białowieża Forest represented “inappropriate” (i.e., occurring in excess compared to the balanced models) species and/or diameter ranges. The amount of deficits was also large (around 30% of the current tree number), concerning primarily the smallest trees. Considering this, we recommend targeted, active management strategies to restore the demographic balance of key tree species and, thus, to enhance the conservation of local biodiversity. We also indicate that the key elements of such strategies should be the gradual removal of trees from surplus diameter ranges and assisted regeneration of species with the greatest deficiencies in small diameter classes.