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In Ontario, Canada, little is currently known about the extent to which un-immunized children may cluster geographically. Our objectives were to: describe the geographic distribution of fully un-immunized children; identify geographic clusters (hotspots) of un-immunized children; and to characterize the contribution of spatial effects and covariates on hotspots, where found. Our analytic cohort consisted of Ontario students aged 7–17 years in the 2016–2017 school year. We defined students as un-immunized if they had zero doses of any vaccine and a non-medical exemption recorded in Ontario’s registry. We calculated unadjusted proportions of un-immunized students by Census Subdivision (CSD) and then used a sequential approach to identify hotspots starting first with hotspot identification at the CSD level and then probed identified hotspots further by Dissemination Area (DA) and including covariates. Hotspots were identified using the Besag-York-Mollie Bayesian spatial model and were defined as areas with >95% probability of having two times the proportion of un-immunized students, relative to the province overall. We identified 15,208 (0.94%) un-immunized children within our cohort consisting of more than 1.61 million students. Unadjusted proportions of un-immunized students varied greatly by geography, ranging from 0% to 21.5% by CSD. We identified 16 hotspot CSDs which clustered in five distinct areas, all of which were located in southern Ontario. The contribution of covariates and spatial effects on the risk of having un-immunized students varied greatly across hotspot areas. Although the provincial proportion (0.94%) of un-immunized students is small, geographical clustering of such students is evident in Ontario and in some areas presents an important risk for future outbreaks. Further qualitative work within these hotspot areas would be a helpful next step to better characterize the factors associated with vaccine refusal in these communities.

The 2021 WHO and UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage (WUENIC) reported approximately 25 million under-vaccinated children in 2021, out of which 18 million were zero-dose children who did not receive even the first dose of a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-(DPT) containing vaccine. The number of zero-dose children increased by six million between 2019, the pre-pandemic year, and 2021. A total of 20 countries with the highest number of zero-dose children and home to over 75% of these children in 2021 were prioritized for this review. Several of these countries have substantial urbanization with accompanying challenges. This review paper summarizes routine immunization backsliding following the COVID-19 pandemic and predictors of coverage and identifies pro-equity strategies in urban and peri-urban settings through a systematic search of the published literature. Two databases, PubMed and Web of Science, were exhaustively searched using search terms and synonyms, resulting in 608 identified peer-reviewed papers. Based on the inclusion criteria, 15 papers were included in the final review. The inclusion criteria included papers published between March 2020 and January 2023 and references to urban settings and COVID-19 in the papers. Several studies clearly documented a backsliding of coverage in urban and peri-urban settings, with some predictors or challenges to optimum coverage as well as some pro-equity strategies deployed or recommended in these studies. This emphasizes the need to focus on context-specific routine immunization catch-up and recovery strategies to suit the peculiarities of urban areas to get countries back on track toward achieving the targets of the IA2030. While more evidence is needed around the impact of the pandemic in urban areas, utilizing tools and platforms created to support advancing the equity agenda is pivotal. We posit that a renewed focus on urban immunization is critical if we are to achieve the IA2030 targets.