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\"What was history's biggest empire? Or the tallest building of the ancient world? What was the plumbing like in medieval Byzantium? The average wage in the Mughal Empire? Where did scientific writing first emerge? What was the bloodiest ever ritual human sacrifice? We are used to thinking about history in terms of stories. Yet we understand our own world through data: cast arrays of statistics that reveal the workings of our societies. In Figuring Out the Past, radical historians Peter Turchin and Dan Hoyer dive into the numbers that reveal the true shape of the past, drawing on their own Seshat project, a staggeringly ambitious attempt to log every data point that can be gathered for every society that has ever existed. This book does more than tell the story of humanity: it shows you the big picture, by the numbers.\"--Amazon.com

The global doubling of human life expectancy between 1850 and 1950 is arguably one of the most consequential developments in human history, undergirding massive improvements in human life and lifestyles. In 1850, Americans died at an average age of 30. Today, the average is almost 80. This story is typically told as a series of medical breakthroughs-Jenner and vaccination, Lister and antisepsis, Snow and germ theory, Fleming and penicillin-but the lion's share of the credit belongs to the men and women who dedicated their lives to collecting good data. Examining the development of death registration systems in the United States-from the first mortality census in 1850 to the development of the death certificate at the turn of the century- Count the Dead argues that mortality data transformed life on Earth, proving critical to the systemization of public health, casualty reporting, and human rights. Stephen Berry shows how a network of coroners, court officials, and state and federal authorities developed methods to track and reveal patterns of dying. These officials harnessed these records to turn the collective dead into informants and in so doing allowed the dead to shape life and death as we know it today.

In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Most of the women who smoke before pregnancy continue smoking during pregnancy, and some start to quit smoking after being pregnant, although existing guidelines for pregnancy recommend that women who smoke should quit smoking before pregnancy. Findings about the timing and intensity of maternal smoking, especially low-intensity smoking (1-9 cigarettes per day), and preterm birth are still inconsistent and ambiguous. This study aimed to examine the association of the timing of smoking and doses of smoking before pregnancy and during the first or second trimester of pregnancy with preterm birth in a large-scale population-based retrospective cohort study. We used nationwide birth certificate data from singleton mother-infant pairs in the United States National Vital Statistics System, 2011-2018. All adult women with live singleton births, without preexisting hypertension or diabetes, and with complete data on smoking and gestational age at delivery were included. Participants reported their smoking status (yes or no) and daily number of cigarettes consumed before and during each trimester of pregnancy. The outcome of interest was preterm birth, defined as a birth before 37 weeks of gestation. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of preterm birth associated with smoking status and the number of cigarettes consumed, adjusting for maternal age, race/ethnicity, parity, education levels, prepregnancy BMI, previous history of preterm birth, marital status, infant sex, and initiation of prenatal care. This study included 25,623,479 women, with a mean age of 29 years (range 20-50 years); 13,742,486 (53.6%) participants were of non-Hispanic white ancestry, 5,971,598 (23.3%) of Hispanic ancestry, and 3,417,456 (13.34%) of non-Hispanic black ancestry. The prevalence of preterm birth was 9.3% (n = 2,378,398). We found that maternal smoking during pregnancy, even at a very low level of intensity, was associated with an increased risk of preterm delivery. The adjusted ORs (95% CI) of preterm birth for mothers who smoked 1-2, 3-5, 6-9, 10-19, and ≥20 cigarettes per day during the first trimester compared with mothers who did not smoke were 1.31 (1.29-1.33), 1.31 (1.30-1.32), 1.33 (1.31-1.35), 1.44 (1.43-1.45), and 1.53 (1.52-1.55), respectively (all P values < 0.001), whereas for those who smoked during the second trimester, the corresponding ORs were 1.37 (1.35-1.39), 1.36 (1.35-1.38), 1.36 (1.34-1.38), 1.48 (1.47-1.49), and 1.59 (1.58-1.61), respectively (all P values < 0.001). Furthermore, smokers who quit before pregnancy, regardless of smoking intensity, had a comparable risk of preterm birth with nonsmokers, although this was not the case when cessation occurred in the first or second trimester of pregnancy. The major limitation of this study is the self-reported information about smoking, which may be subject to information bias. In addition, we cannot rule out the possibility of residual confounding caused by unmeasured factors in an observational research design. In this study, we observed that low-intensity cigarette consumption during either the first or second trimester of pregnancy, even as low as 1-2 cigarettes per day, was associated with an increased risk of preterm birth. These findings suggest that there is no safe level or safe trimester for maternal smoking during pregnancy. Women of reproductive age who smoke should be strongly encouraged and supported to quit smoking before pregnancy.

Background Ontario, the most populous province in Canada, has a universal healthcare system that routinely collects health administrative data on its 13 million legal residents that is used for health research. Record linkage has become a vital tool for this research by enriching this data with the Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada Permanent Resident (IRCC-PR) database and the Office of the Registrar General’s Vital Statistics-Death (ORG-VSD) registry. Our objectives were to estimate linkage rates and compare characteristics of individuals in the linked versus unlinked files. Methods We used both deterministic and probabilistic linkage methods to link the IRCC-PR database (1985–2012) and ORG-VSD registry (1990–2012) to the Ontario’s Registered Persons Database. Linkage rates were estimated and standardized differences were used to assess differences in socio-demographic and other characteristics between the linked and unlinked records. Results The overall linkage rates for the IRCC-PR database and ORG-VSD registry were 86.4 and 96.2 %, respectively. The majority (68.2 %) of the record linkages in IRCC-PR were achieved after three deterministic passes, 18.2 % were linked probabilistically, and 13.6 % were unlinked. Similarly the majority (79.8 %) of the record linkages in the ORG-VSD were linked using deterministic record linkage, 16.3 % were linked after probabilistic and manual review, and 3.9 % were unlinked. Unlinked and linked files were similar for most characteristics, such as age and marital status for IRCC-PR and sex and most causes of death for ORG-VSD. However, lower linkage rates were observed among people born in East Asia (78 %) in the IRCC-PR database and certain causes of death in the ORG-VSD registry, namely perinatal conditions (61.3 %) and congenital anomalies (81.3 %). Conclusions The linkages of immigration and vital statistics data to existing population-based healthcare data in Ontario, Canada will enable many novel cross-sectional and longitudinal studies to be conducted. Analytic techniques to account for sub-optimal linkage rates may be required in studies of certain ethnic groups or certain causes of death among children and infants.

Background The majority of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) do not have adequate civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems to properly support health policy formulation. Verbal autopsy (VA), long used in research, can provide useful information on the cause of death (COD) in populations where physicians are not available to complete medical certificates of COD. Here, we report on the application of the SmartVA tool for the collection and analysis of data in several countries as part of routine CRVS activities. Methods Data from VA interviews conducted in 4 of 12 countries supported by the Bloomberg Philanthropies Data for Health (D4H) Initiative, and at different stages of health statistical development, were analysed and assessed for plausibility: Myanmar, Papua New Guinea (PNG), Bangladesh and the Philippines. Analyses by age- and cause-specific mortality fractions were compared to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study data by country. VA interviews were analysed using SmartVA-Analyze-automated software that was designed for use in CRVS systems. The method in the Philippines differed from the other sites in that the VA output was used as a decision support tool for health officers. Results Country strategies for VA implementation are described in detail. Comparisons between VA data and country GBD estimates by age and cause revealed generally similar patterns and distributions. The main discrepancy was higher infectious disease mortality and lower non-communicable disease mortality at the PNG VA sites, compared to the GBD country models, which critical appraisal suggests may highlight real differences rather than implausible VA results. Conclusion Automated VA is the only feasible method for generating COD data for many populations. The results of implementation in four countries, reported here under the D4H Initiative, confirm that these methods are acceptable for wide-scale implementation and can produce reliable COD information on community deaths for which little was previously known.

Background Globally, an estimated two-thirds of all deaths occur in the community, the majority of which are not attended by a physician and remain unregistered. Identifying and registering these deaths in civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems, and ascertaining the cause of death, is thus a critical challenge to ensure that policy benefits from reliable evidence on mortality levels and patterns in populations. In contrast to traditional processes for registration, death notification can be faster and more efficient at informing responsible government agencies about the event and at triggering a verbal autopsy for ascertaining cause of death. Thus, innovative approaches to death notification, tailored to suit the setting, can improve the availability and quality of information on community deaths in CRVS systems. Improving the notification of community deaths Here, we present case studies in four countries (Bangladesh, Colombia, Myanmar and Papua New Guinea) that were part of the initial phases of the Bloomberg Data for Health Initiative at the University of Melbourne, each of which faces unique challenges to community death registration. The approaches taken promote improved notification of community deaths through a combination of interventions, including integration with the health sector, using various notifying agents and methods, and the application of information and communication technologies. One key factor for success has been the smoothing of processes linking notification, registration and initiation of a verbal autopsy interview. The processes implemented champion more active notification systems in relation to the passive systems commonly in place in these countries. Conclusions The case studies demonstrate the significant potential for improving death reporting through the implementation of notification practices tailored to a country’s specific circumstances, including geography, cultural factors, structure of the existing CRVS system, and available human, information and communication technology resources. Strategic deployment of some, or all, of these innovations can result in rapid improvements to death notification systems and should be trialled in other settings.