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"warm seclusions"
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A New Refinement of Mediterranean Tropical‐Like Cyclones Characteristics
by
Gutiérrez‐Fernández, Jesús
,
Gaertner, Miguel Angel
,
González‐Alemán, Juan J.
in
Baroclinic mode
,
Baroclinity
,
Coastal zone
2024
Several warm‐core cyclones in the Mediterranean, which were analyzed in the literature, are studied using ERA5 reanalysis, to identify the environment where they develop and distinguish tropical‐like cyclones from non‐tropical warm‐core cyclones. Initially, the cyclone phase space is analyzed to distinguish the cyclones that have a symmetrical deep warm core. Subsequently, the temporal evolution of several parameters is considered, including the distance between the area of maximum tangential wind speed and the cyclone center. Some differences are observed between the cyclones analyzed: one category of cyclones develops in areas of moderate‐low baroclinicity and intense convective processes, as occurs in tropical cyclones. Another group of cyclones develops in a strongly baroclinic environment with weak convective processes and intense vertical wind shear, as occurs in warm seclusions. Two cyclones, showing similarities with polar lows, are also identified. Plain Language Summary Mediterranean tropical‐like cyclones (TLCs) are damaging weather systems, which form over the Mediterranean Sea, resembling tropical cyclones. These cyclones can drive important socio‐economic losses in coastal areas. However, due to their small size and the relatively recent investigation of these cyclones, there is currently no robust categorization of which Mediterranean cyclones can be considered TLC. Therefore, in this work, we propose a method to differentiate cyclones that attain actual tropical‐like characteristics in part of their lifetime, as they develop a warm core through intense convective processes. The main results of this study show that part of the analyzed cyclones have features similar to tropical cyclones. Another group of cyclones has a behavior closer to extratropical cyclones with weak convective processes in an environment with intense vertical wind shear, as occurs in warm seclusions or polar lows. The results of this study propose a key to identify the Mediterranean cyclones that have tropical‐like characteristics. Key Points A new method to detect cyclones with tropical‐like characteristics in the Mediterranean has been developed Part of the cyclones with deep warm core developed in low baroclinicity and with intense convective processes, as tropical cyclones Some cyclones have weak convective processes and intense vertical wind shear environments, such as warm seclusions or polar lows
Journal Article
Severe Autumn storms in future Western Europe with a warmer Atlantic Ocean
by
Van Delden, Aarnout J.
,
de Vries, Hylke
,
Haarsma, Reindert J.
in
Analysis
,
Atlantic Ocean
,
bites and stings
2015
Simulations with a very high resolution (~25 km) global climate model indicate that more severe Autumn storms will impact Europe in a warmer future climate. The observed increase is mainly attributed to storms with a tropical origin, especially in the later part of the twentyfirst century. As their genesis region expands, tropical cyclones become more intense and their chances of reaching Europe increase. This paper investigates the properties and evolution of such storms and clarifies the future changes. The studied tropical cyclones feature a typical evolution of tropical development, extratropical transition and a re-intensification. A reduction of the transit area between regions of tropical and extratropical cyclogenesis increases the probability of re-intensification. Many of the modelled storms exhibit hybrid properties in a considerable part of their life cycle during which they exhibit the hazards of both tropical and extratropical systems. In addition to tropical cyclones, other systems such as cold core extratropical storms mainly originating over the Gulf Stream region also increasingly impact Western Europe. Despite their different history, all of the studied storms have one striking similarity: they form a warm seclusion. The structure, intensity and frequency of storms in the present climate are compared to observations using the MERRA and IBTrACS datasets. Damaging winds associated with the occurrence of a sting jet are observed in a large fraction of the cyclones during their final stage. Baroclinic instability is of great importance for the (re-)intensification of the storms. Furthermore, so-called atmospheric rivers providing tropical air prove to be vital for the intensification through diabatic heating and will increase considerably in strength in the future, as will the associated flooding risks.
Journal Article