Expert political judgment : how good is it ? How can we know ?

Tetlock, Philip E. (Philip Eyrikson), 1954- author

Overview

\"The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.\" \"Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting.\"--Jacket.

• Publisher: Princeton University Press
• Subject: Political psychology / Ideology
• ISBN: 0691123020, 9780691123028, 9780691128719, 0691128715

Item info:

1 item available

1 item total in all locations

Holdings :

Call Number	Copies	Material	Location
JA 74.5 .T38 2006	1	BOOK	AUTOSTORE