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An Econometric Analysis of the Macroeconomic Determinants of External Debt in Egypt
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An Econometric Analysis of the Macroeconomic Determinants of External Debt in Egypt
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Journal Article
An Econometric Analysis of the Macroeconomic Determinants of External Debt in Egypt
2024
Overview
This paper examines the macroeconomic determinants of external debt in Egypt during 1977-2020 using Johansen cointegration test and a vector error correction model (VECM). It tries to fill the research gap due to the lack of empirical studies on the determinants of external debt accumulation in Egypt. The results of Johansen cointegration show that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the model variables. Furthermore, the long-run cointegrating equation reveals that there is a negative relationship between gross domestic savings and external debt accumulation in Egypt, whereas government final consumption expenditure, trade openness, and total external debt service are positively related to external debt accumulation in Egypt. Accordingly, some policy recommendations can be suggested to deal with the growth of Egypt's external debt such as boosting gross domestic savings rate through achieving higher growth rates, increasing government revenues through widening the tax base, directing the funds acquired from external borrowing to highly-productive projects that generate high rates of return in excess of interest payments on external debt, and implementing an industrialization program that is complemented with an export promotion strategy that aims at increasing exports and hence, reducing the foreign exchange gap.
Publisher
جامعة قناة السويس - كلية التجارة بالاسماعيلية
