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Evolution of long‐term land subsidence near Mexico City: Review, field investigations, and predictive simulations
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Evolution of long‐term land subsidence near Mexico City: Review, field investigations, and predictive simulations
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Journal Article
Evolution of long‐term land subsidence near Mexico City: Review, field investigations, and predictive simulations
2010
Overview
Aquitard consolidation in the Chalco Plain is the most recent of a series of major land subsidence problems near Mexico City caused by leaky‐aquifer pumping and involving a complex distribution of basalt flows within a lacustrine sequence. This study first conducted a ground magnetic survey combined with lithologic logs to map the extension of basalts. Then it assessed the evolution of ground surface elevations and updated hydraulic heads in the aquifer and aquitard in order to verify the accuracy of previous simulations and develop new predictions on land subsidence employing a one‐dimensional, nonlinear, groundwater flow‐consolidation model. Results show the presence of shallow basalts that extend from Sierra Santa Catarina into the Chalco Plain, causing a differential consolidation that controls both the distribution of large‐scale fractures in the aquitard and the shape of a new lake. Cumulative land subsidence in the center of the Chalco Plain reached 13 m in 2006, thus closely matching previous numerical estimations. Since 1985, the ground surface decline has continued at a rate of ∼0.40 m/yr, while the potentiometric surface decline in the aquifer proceeds at an average rate of approximately 1.5 m/yr, indicating that the flow system has not yet reached steady‐state conditions. Numerical predictions show that under current pumping rates, where the aquitard is 300 m, total land subsidence will reach approximately 19 m by the year 2020; while where the aquitard is 140 m thick, total land subsidence will reach approximately 12 m, and increase the risk of flooding and aquitard fracturing for nearby urban centers.
Publisher
Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Subject
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