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The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy
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eBook
The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy
2012
Overview
We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VARmodel, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q22011Q2, to discriminatebetween supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile oftheir macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economicconsequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output.
Publisher
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND,International Monetary Fund
Subject
ISBN
9781475597158, 1475544553, 9781475544558, 9781475596076, 1475596073, 1475597150
