Journal Article

Phenological Shifts in Lake Ice Cover Across the Northern Hemisphere: A Glimpse Into the Past, Present, and the Future of Lake Ice Phenology

Sharma, S., Blagrave, K., Culpepper, J., Basu, A.

2024

Overview

Long‐term ice phenology records quantify the effects of climate change on Northern Hemisphere lakes. This study uses lake ice phenological records across a gradient of lake sizes (0.1–31,967.8 km2 in lake surface area) obtained from community science networks. We compiled in situ ice phenological records for 2,499 lakes across 15 countries for an average of 30 years. These data revealed that for the last 50 years (1971–2020), the annual mean duration of lake ice cover decreased at a rate of 9 days per decade, with a regime shift in lake ice phenology in the late 1980s. We projected that at the end of the century (2070–2099), ice duration will decrease by an average of 10 days when compared to the historical time period (1971–2000) for the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 1–2.6 climate scenario (SSP126), 23 days for SSP370, and 28 days for the SSP585. Impending human development can enhance or attenuate lake ice loss, as adaptation strategies can accelerate fossil fuel use, result in conflict, or seek strategies apart from fossil fuel development. These future pathways have critical implications for the future preservation of lake ice cover. Key Points A regime shift was observed in North American lake ice phenology in the late 1980s Northern Hemisphere lakes may lose 10–28 days of ice cover by the end of the 21st century Lake ice phenology will become more unpredictable, especially under higher warming scenarios

• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc,Wiley
• Subject: Ablation / climate / Climate change / Climate effects / climate forecasting / Fossil fuels / human development / Ice / Ice cover / in situ observations / Lake ice / lake ice phenology / Lakes / machine learning / Northern Hemisphere / Phenology / shared socioeconomic pathways / surface area / water