Paper

Discrete epidemic models with two time scales

Rafael Bravo de la Parra, Sanz-Lorenzo, Luis

2024

Overview

The main aim of the work is to present a general class of two time scales discrete-time epidemic models. In the proposed framework the disease dynamics is considered to act on a slower time scale than a second different process that could represent movements between spatial locations, changes of individual activities or behaviours, or others. To include a sufficiently general disease model, we first build up from first principles a discrete-time Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIRS) model and characterize the eradication or endemicity of the disease with the help of its basic reproduction number R0. Then, we propose a general full model that includes sequentially the two processes at different time scales, and proceed to its analysis through a reduced model. The basic reproduction number R0 of the reduced system gives a good approximation of the R0 of the full model since it serves at analyzing its asymptotic behaviour. As an illustration of the proposed general framework, it is shown that there exist conditions under which a locally endemic disease, considering isolated patches in a metapopulation, can be eradicated globally by establishing the appropriate movements between patches.

• Publisher: Cornell University Library, arXiv.org
• Subject: Asymptotic properties / Epidemics / First principles / Time