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以參考一籃子貨幣為名：人民幣匯率機制之驗證
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Journal Article
以參考一籃子貨幣為名：人民幣匯率機制之驗證
2017
Overview
本文使用「狀態空間模型」（State Space Model）並完整納入中國人民銀行行長周小川揭露的11種貨幣，研究中國實施匯率機制改革以後的人民幣匯率機制。不論是使用月資料或是日資料，使用瑞士法郎、美元或是特別提款權作為計價標準，使用固定係數模型或是狀態空間模型，本文分析結果都顯示，人民幣通貨籃內的貨幣基本上只有美元。基於此一發現，加上匯改以來，人民幣對美元匯率在多數時間是以緩慢但不一致的速度爬升，而且人民幣對美元匯率的浮動程度一直相當低，我們推論中國實施的其實是「權衡式的爬行釘住美元」（Discretionary Crawling Peg to the US Dollar）機制。換言之，中國是以參考一籃子貨幣為名，行人民幣釘住美元之實。就中國面臨的經濟情勢來看，「權衡式的爬行釘住美元」機制應該是最佳選擇。基於中國經濟改革長期以來所遵循的漸進主義精神，可以預見中國實施自由浮動匯率機制，或只是實施有實質意涵的管理浮動匯率制度，應該還需要相當時間。
Publisher
國立臺灣大學管理學院
