Journal Article

سياسات الرئيس الأمريكي ترامب تجاه النظام والمعارضة في مصر

شافعي، بدر حسن

2017

Overview

The present paper explores the US stance on the developments in Egypt since the 2011 January revolution until after the General Sisi's coup, briefly along with the determinants of such policy. In other words, will Trump's takeover in 2017 lead to the deterioration of Cairo's democratic shift? It is to be borne in mind that there is accord between the two officials since Trump was announced candidate as well as when he received the first congratulation phone call from Sisi upon assuming power. The hypothesis of the study is that the better the US-Egypt ties, the worse Cairo's democracy, especially when Republicans come to power. Several methodologies are adopted, such as those descriptive, historical and the case study. The paper consists of 4 sections: Determinants of the US Policy towards Egypt, US Stance on Egypt's Political Developments from the 2011's Uprising to the 2013' Coup by Sisi, Trump's Administration's Perspective of the Situation in Egypt and the Impact of Trump's Policies on Egypt's Political Situation. It is concluded that Washington's standpoint in this regard is basically linked to its national and Israeli interests. On the other hand, there are 2 future scenarios for Cairo's political order. The first is a tyrannical regime which internally resorts to force, while boosting foreign relations mainly with the US and Israel. Such practices are likely to continue at least during Trump's \"first term\" - that is until 2021. The second is a hybrid tyrannical system offering some democracy. That would depend on a number of factors, such as the decline of the internal situation without being dealt with properly, the real opposition's power and the foreign powers' pressure if their interests are threatened. So far, the first scenario - continued tyranny for a while - is more likely. However, the opposition abroad - the Muslim Brotherhood and Others - needs to play a significant role in bringing down the coup based on their several statements or, at least, pressure the regime to establish a true democracy. Thus, it should found a broader body which would unite, as well as carefully assess, the current entities.

• Publisher: مركز دراسات الشرق الاوسط,Middle East Studies Center
• Subject: EGYPT / HEADS OF STATES / INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS / POLITICAL OPPOSITION / POLITICAL SYSTEMS / USA / الأنظمة السياسية / السلطة المصرية / السياسة الأمريكية / السياسة الخارجية / العلاقات الدولية / المعارضة السياسية / الولايات المتحدة / دونالد ترامب، الرئيس الأمريكى / رؤساء الدول / مصر