Paper

A Bayesian framework for the analysis of systems biology models of the brain

Tachtsidis, Ilias, Russell-Buckland, Joshua, Barnes, Christopher P

2018

Overview

Systems biology models are used to understand complex biological and physiological systems. Interpretation of these models is an important part of developing this understanding. These models are often fit to experimental data in order to understand how the system has produced various phenomena or behaviour that are seen in the data. In this paper, we have outlined a framework that can be used to perform Bayesian analysis of complex systems biology models. In particular, we have focussed on analysing a systems biology of the brain using both simulated and measured data. By using a combination of sensitivity analysis and approximate Bayesian computation, we have shown that it is possible to obtain a more complete understanding of the parameter space as compared to a maximum likelihood estimate based approach. This is done through analysis of simulated and experimental data. NIRS measurements were simulated using the same simulated systemic input data for the model in a 'healthy' and 'impaired' state. By analysing both of these datasets, we show that different parameter spaces can be distinguished and compared between different physiological states or conditions. Finally, we analyse experimental data using the new Bayesian framework and the previous maximum likelihood estimate approach, showing that the Bayesian approach provides a more complete understanding of the parameter space. Footnotes * Autogenerated PDF from PLOS had errors in how figures were displayed and ordered. This version simply places Figures directly into the PDF so as to ensure correct ordering.

• Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press,Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
• Subject: Bayesian analysis / Biology / Mathematical models / Physiology / Systems Biology