Journal Article

The COVID-19 pandemic: diverse contexts; different epidemics—how and why?

Van Damme, Wim, Assefa, Yibeltal, Aaby, Peter, Kloos, Helmut, Prashanth, NS, De Brouwere, Vincent, Al-Awlaqi, Sameh, Ahuka-Mundeke, Steve, Muyembe-Tamfum, Jean-Jacques, Van Engelgem, Ian, Delamou, Alexandre, Dahake, Ritwik, Van der Borght, Stefaan, Verdonck, Kristien, Abimbola, Seye, van de Pas, Remco, Kiendrébéogo, Joël Arthur, Bello, Kéfilath, Vanham, Guido, Narayanan, Devadasan, Dossou, Jean-Paul, Ag Ahmed, Mohamed Ali, Ingelbeen, Brecht, Wouters, Edwin, Bloom, Gerald, Kalk, Andreas, Ir, Por, Mbala, Placide

2020

Overview

It is very exceptional that a new disease becomes a true pandemic. Since its emergence in Wuhan, China, in late 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, has spread to nearly all countries of the world in only a few months. However, in different countries, the COVID-19 epidemic takes variable shapes and forms in how it affects communities. Until now, the insights gained on COVID-19 have been largely dominated by the COVID-19 epidemics and the lockdowns in China, Europe and the USA. But this variety of global trajectories is little described, analysed or understood. In only a few months, an enormous amount of scientific evidence on SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 has been uncovered (knowns). But important knowledge gaps remain (unknowns). Learning from the variety of ways the COVID-19 epidemic is unfolding across the globe can potentially contribute to solving the COVID-19 puzzle. This paper tries to make sense of this variability—by exploring the important role that context plays in these different COVID-19 epidemics; by comparing COVID-19 epidemics with other respiratory diseases, including other coronaviruses that circulate continuously; and by highlighting the critical unknowns and uncertainties that remain. These unknowns and uncertainties require a deeper understanding of the variable trajectories of COVID-19. Unravelling them will be important for discerning potential future scenarios, such as the first wave in virgin territories still untouched by COVID-19 and for future waves elsewhere.

• Publisher: BMJ Publishing Group Ltd,BMJ Publishing Group LTD,BMJ Publishing Group
• Subject: Aerosols / Analysis / Betacoronavirus / China - epidemiology / Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology / Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control / Coronavirus Infections - transmission / Coronavirus Infections - virology / Coronaviruses / COVID-19 / Disease transmission / Epidemics / Europe - epidemiology / Fatalities / Global Health / Humans / Infection Control / Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype / Influenza Pandemic, 1918-1919 / Influenza, Human / Pandemics / Pandemics - prevention & control / Pathogens / Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology / Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control / Pneumonia, Viral - transmission / Pneumonia, Viral - virology / Public health / Respiratory diseases / SARS-CoV-2 / Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 / United States - epidemiology