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Book
Stochastic modelling of electricity and related markets
2008
Overview
1. A survey of electricity and related markets. 1.1. The electricity markets. 1.2. The gas market. 1.3. The temperature market. 1.4. Other related energy markets. 1.5. Stochastic modelling of energy markets. 1.6. Outline of the book -- 2. Stochastic analysis for independent increment processes. 2.1. Definitions. 2.2. Stochastic integration with respect to martingales. 2.3. Random jump measures and stochastic integration. 2.4. The Lévy-Kintchine decomposition and semimartingales. 2.5. The Itô formula for semimartingales. 2.6. Examples of independent increment processes -- 3. Stochastic models for the energy spot price dynamics. 3.1. Introduction. 3.2. Spot price modelling with Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. 3.3. The autocorrelation function of multi-factor Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. 3.4. Simulation of stationary Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes: a case study with the arithmetic spot model -- 4. Pricing of forwards and swaps based on the spot price. 4.1. Risk-neutral forward and swap price modelling. 4.2. Currency conversion for forward and swap prices. 4.3. Pricing of forwards. 4.4. Pricing of swaps -- 5. Applications to the gas markets. 5.1. Modelling the gas spot price. 5.2. Pricing of gas futures. 5.3. Inference for multi-factor processes -- 6. Modelling forwards and swaps using the Heath-Jarrow-Morton approach. 6.1. The HJM modelling idea for forward contracts. 6.2. HJM modelling of forwards. 6.3. HJM modelling of swaps. 6.4. The market models -- 7. Constructing smooth forward curves in electricity markets. 7.1. Swap and forward prices. 7.2. Maximum smooth forward curve. 7.3. Putting the algorithm to work -- 8. Modelling of the electricity futures market. 8.1. The Nord Pool market and financial contracts. 8.2. Preparing data sets. 8.3. Descriptive statistics. 8.4. A market model for electricity futures. 8.5. Principal component analysis. 8.6. Estimating a parametric multi-factor market model. 8.7. Normalised logreturns and heavy tails. 8.8. Final remarks -- 9. Pricing and hedging of energy options. 9.1. Pricing and hedging options on forwards and swaps. 9.2. Exotic options. 9.3. Case study: valuation of spark spread options a direct approach -- 10. Analysis of temperature derivatives. 10.1. Some preliminaries on temperature futures. 10.2. Modelling the dynamics of temperature. 10.3. Empirical analysis of Stockholm temperature dynamics. 10.4. Temperature derivatives pricing.
Publisher
World Scientific Pub. Co
Subject
ISBN
9812812318, 9789812812315
