Book Chapter

The future of agriculture

Connor, David J., Loomis, Robert S., Cassman, Kenneth G.

2011

Overview

While the future is uncertain in terms of population, demand for food, energy supply, climate and weather, it is worthwhile to consider some scenarios, based on expected trends, from a crop ecology perspective. Critical to this exercise is whether agricultural production can be increased to meet food and fuel needs of an expanding population and whether that can be done safely with acceptable environmental impact. Success in achieving a sufficient agriculture will depend heavily on the rate of population growth, expected demand of individuals, and on decisions made about acceptable levels of natural resource conservation and energy use. Preceding chapters provide a basis for possible technological advances. This chapter reviews trends in population growth and food supply and considers the prospects for a food-secure world to 2050.Population and need for foodWorld population of 6.8 billion in 2010 is continuing to grow but at a decreasing rate, recently predicted (in 2008) by the UN Population Division to reach 9.2 billion by 2050, and later decline toward the end of the century. The decline is good long-term news regarding overall food demand and environmental impact. But it also includes a crucial 40-year period when greater food production must be achieved in the face of demographic shifts that will have great impact on future agriculture. In fact, the time available for development of the required science and technology is much shorter than 40 y because it takes time for validation, adaptation, extension education, and adoption on farms.

• Publisher: Cambridge University Press
• Subject: Applied ecology / Management of land & natural resources / Sustainability
• ISBN: 0521761271, 9780521744034, 9780521761277, 0521744032