Journal Article

Long-term land use dynamics and scenario-based planning for sustainable development in the dumai river basin, Western Indonesia

Giofandi, Eggy Arya, Sekarjati, Dhanu, Tjahjono, Boedi, Hidiya, Miesriany, Mulyono, M. Rezki

2025

Overview

Sustainable land use within river basins is essential for maintaining ecosystem functionality and mitigating environmental degradation. This study analyzes historical and projected land use and land cover (LULC) changes in the Dumai River Basin, Western Indonesia, over a 30-year period (1994–2024) and projects future changes for 2034 and 2050. An object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach was applied for LULC classification, while the Cellular Automata–Markov (CA–Markov) model simulated spatial transitions under two scenarios: the Natural Development Scenario (NDS) and the Ecological Safeguard Scenario (ESS). The NDS assumes business-as-usual land conversion without conservation intervention, whereas the ESS integrates ecological zoning and controlled spatial development. Results show that from 1994 to 2024, forest cover declined from 53.75% to 10.87%, while built-up land expanded from 5.29% to 24.67%. Under the NDS, forest area is projected to decrease further to 1.62% by 2050, accompanied by an expansion of built-up land to 31.53%. Conversely, under the ESS, forest cover could recover to 14.31%, and built-up land growth remains limited to 28.89%, indicating improved ecological balance. Model validation achieved a high predictive accuracy (Kappa coefficient = 0.87). These findings emphasize the effectiveness of integrating OBIA and CA–Markov modeling for scenario-based land use simulation in tropical wetlands. The results also highlight the necessity of adopting ecological safeguard measures to harmonize development with conservation goals, thereby supporting sustainable land resource management and climate-resilient regional planning.