Journal Article

The Impact of the Age Structure of the Population and the Price of Housing on the Savings of the Population: An Empirical Study from China

Yuanyuan, Qu, Kassim, Aza Azlina Md

2023

Overview

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between housing prices, population age structure and savings rate by analyzing the variables of housing prices, population age structure and savings rate, which is of great theoretical and practical significance for the formulation of policies to alleviate the aging population and childlessness in China.   Theoretical framework: Most of the studies on the relationship among the consumer price of commercial housing, the old-age dependency ratio, the child dependency ratio, and the savings rate of the residents in China are based on the GMM model, while this study constructs a quadratic VAR model to empirically analyze and test the four variables of the consumer price of commercial housing, the old-age dependency ratio, the child dependency ratio, and the savings rate of the residents, and to study whether there is a long-term stable relationship among these four variables and other general patterns that exist among these four variables. other general laws that exist among these four variables.   Design/Methodology/Approach: This study decides to start from the perspective of residents' saving rates. It conducts descriptive statistical analysis and empirical analysis by using 33 macroeconomic data (samples) from 1990-2022, official data of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and housing price data from Jurassic Data Network (JDN). The hypotheses are initially set up by descriptive analysis, and then the VAR function model is constructed to analyze and test the hypotheses empirically.   Findings: It is found that the sales price of commercial housing is positively correlated with the savings rate of residents; the child dependency ratio is positively correlated with the savings rate of residents; the old-age dependency ratio is insignificantly correlated with the savings rate of residents; and there is a long-term and stable correlation among the four variables of the sales price of commercial housing, the child dependency ratio, the old age dependency ratio and the savings rate of residents.   Research, Practical & Social implications: This study improves the relevant theoretical research of economics, demography, sociology and other interdisciplinary disciplines, complements the existing research paths and methods of empirical analysis, and obtains relevant empirical research conclusions. The significance of the study is to provide assistance to the formulation of national macroeconomic and monetary policies, and to contribute to the adjustment of population policies, the reform of the pension security system, and the revision of the medical security system. It also contributes to the adjustment of the population policy, the reform of the pension security system, and the revision of the medical security system.   Originality/Value: The study is able to enrich the research practices on the sales price of commercial properties, the dependency ratio of young children, the dependency ratio of the elderly and the savings rate of the population, and make a new contribution to the improvement of people's livelihood, the development of the real estate industry's transformation and upgrading, and the formulation of rational population and economic policies.

• Subject: Age Dependency Ratio / Child Dependency Ratio / Household Savings Rate / Housing Price / Old / The VAR Model