Asset Details
Do you wish to reserve the book?
Wildfire containment probability is not affected by eastern spruce budworm defoliation in Ontario, Canada
Hey, we have placed the reservation for you!
By the way, why not check out events that you can attend while you pick your title.
Oops! Something went wrong.
Looks like we were not able to place the reservation. Kindly try again later.
Are you sure you want to remove the book from the shelf?
Wildfire containment probability is not affected by eastern spruce budworm defoliation in Ontario, Canada
Do you wish to request the book?
Wildfire containment probability is not affected by eastern spruce budworm defoliation in Ontario, Canada
Please be aware that the book you have requested cannot be checked out. If you would like to checkout this book, you can reserve another copy
We have requested the book for you!
Your request is successful and it will be processed during the Library working hours. Please check the status of your request in My Requests.
Oops! Something went wrong.
Looks like we were not able to place your request. Kindly try again later.
Journal Article
Wildfire containment probability is not affected by eastern spruce budworm defoliation in Ontario, Canada
2025
Overview
BackgroundStand-replacing wildfires and eastern spruce budworm outbreaks (Choristoneura fumiferana; SBW) are important disturbances in the boreal forest. SBW defoliation can affect fire behaviour by altering fuel loads and connectivity, thereby promoting the transition of low-activity surface fires into crown fires. However, little is known about how these altered fuels impact the effectiveness of fire suppression.AimsTo assess key drivers of initial attack (IA) success in Ontario’s boreal forest and determine if incorporating SBW defoliation data improves predictive models.MethodsWe developed random forest models of fire containment using established predictors including fire weather, fire size at IA and region. We then evaluated if the inclusion of time since SBW defoliation improved model performance.Key resultsFire size at IA was the most influential variable for determining whether a fire escaped containment. Contrary to our hypothesis, we did not find evidence that SBW defoliation greatly improved model performance.Conclusions and implicationsThe size of the fire at IA was the most important variable in determining successful containment. Although budworm defoliation has been shown to affect other aspects of fire hazard, we were unable to identify an influence on IA success. Future work could benefit from focused investigation into how historical SBW defoliation affects fire behaviour.
Publisher
CSIRO
Subject
