Journal Article

Predicted Range Shifts of Non‐Native Grasses in Response to Climate Change Are Influenced by Photosynthetic Pathway: A Case Study in the Hawaiian Islands

Brock, Kelsey C., Fortini, Lucas Berio, Faccenda, Kevin, Daehler, Curtis C., Peterson, Elizabeth Aquino

2026

Overview

Aim Grasses comprise three main photosynthetic pathway variants (C3‐BOP, C3‐PACMAD and C4‐PACMAD hereafter referred to as C4). We sought to confirm climate niche differences among these photosynthetic pathway variants and assessed whether predicted non‐native grass range shift patterns with climate change differ among photosynthetic pathway variants. Location Hawaiian Islands. Methods We used a species distribution modelling (SDM) approach that uses global occurrence records to inform local SDM based on local (Hawaiian Islands) occurrences. We compared climate niches and projected climate‐driven range shifts, assuming moderate climate change (RCP 4.5, end of century), among 22 non‐native grasses representing C3‐BOP, C3‐PACMAD and C4 photosynthetic pathway variants. Results C4 grasses exhibited the warmest temperature niches on average, but did not differ substantially in rainfall niche versus C3‐BOP grasses. C3‐PACMAD species averaged high suitability across a broad range of temperatures and rainfall conditions, except extreme aridity. In response to projected climate change, C4 grasses had projected range increases. C3‐BOP grasses typically responded with net range decreases, while C3‐PACMAD grasses had variable range responses. However, patterns were contingent on elevation: for instance, the projected expansion of C4 grasses was generally limited to elevations below 2000 m, with the largest increases in areas up to 750 m. Areas of greatest reduction for C3‐BOP and C3‐PACMAD were projected at 750–1900 m and 100–1100 m elevation, respectively. Above 2000 m, range increases were projected for both C3 grass variants. Main Conclusions Our projections suggest that non‐native C4 grasses pose the greatest risk for increasing spread and impacts under RCP 4.5, while certain C3‐PACMAD grasses may endanger valuable high‐elevation habitats. Photosynthetic pathway may be a useful component of weed risk assessment to evaluate how species may respond to climate change as similar range response patterns may be expected for other non‐native grasses in other tropical and subtropical regions.

• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc
• Subject: Aridity / Climate change / geographic distribution / Geographical distribution / Grasses / invasive plants / Islands / naturalized / Niches / Nonnative species / Photosynthesis / Physiology / Rainfall / Risk assessment / species distribution models / spread / tropical / Working groups