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Modeling of covid-19 in Indonesia using vector autoregressive integrated moving average
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Modeling of covid-19 in Indonesia using vector autoregressive integrated moving average
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Journal Article
Modeling of covid-19 in Indonesia using vector autoregressive integrated moving average
2021
Overview
A phenomenon of coronavirus became a big deal around the world at the end of December 2019. To find out how deadly the disease is, we can use the Case Fatality Rate (CFR), which provides the ratio number of deaths due to covid-19 between founded cases number of covid-19. However, studies to see the relationship between the number of cases and the number of deaths caused by covid-19 in Indonesia rarely done. Time Series analysis that can see how the relationship between the number of cases and the number of deaths due to covid-19 in Indonesia is Vector Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average analysis (VARIMA). Data used in this model must be qualified the stationary. For that reason, the transformation using differencing and logarithm on data must be performed to resolve non-stationary. The result shows the model that fulfilled all assumptions and had the smallest AICC value is VARIMA (1,1,1). The model shows the number of cases influenced by the number of cases and the number of deaths in the previous period. The same condition applies to the number of deaths affected by the number of deaths and the number of cases from the preceding period.
Publisher
IOP Publishing
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