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The solar cycle: predicting the peak of solar cycle 25
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The solar cycle: predicting the peak of solar cycle 25
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Journal Article
The solar cycle: predicting the peak of solar cycle 25
2020
Overview
Motivated by a successful prediction on the peak of solar cycle 24 (81.7, comparable to the observed 81.9, Du in Astrophys. Space Sci. 338:9, 2012), based on the logarithmic relationship between the maximum amplitude (Rm) of a solar cycle and the preceding minimum aa geomagnetic index (aamin), we perform a prediction on the peak of the upcoming cycle 25 using the sunspot number of the new version instead. If the suggested error in aa (3 nT) before 1957 is corrected, the correlation between lnRm and lnaamin (r=0.92) is stronger than that not corrected (r=0.86). Based on this relationship, the peak value of cycle 25 is predicted to be Rm(25)≃151.1±16.9, about 30% stronger than cycle 24. Employing the ‘Waldmeier effect’ that the rise time of a cycle is well anti-correlated to its amplitude, we estimated the rise time, Ta(25)=4.3±0.2±0.6, and the peak time of cycle 25, 2024.1±0.8 (years), which is during April 2023 and November 2024.
Publisher
Springer Nature B.V
Subject
