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The Battle Over Oil Sands Access to Tidewater: A Political Risk Analysis of Pipeline Alternatives
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The Battle Over Oil Sands Access to Tidewater: A Political Risk Analysis of Pipeline Alternatives
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Journal Article
The Battle Over Oil Sands Access to Tidewater: A Political Risk Analysis of Pipeline Alternatives
2013
Overview
La possibilité d'accroître, sur les marchés, l'offre de pétrole canadien provenant de sables bitumineux est de plus en plus contestée, les projets de nouveaux pipelines suscitant beaucoup de controverse. Dans cet article, je conçois un cadre d'analyse du risque politique dans ce domaine, et je l'applique à cinq projets de pipelines. Le risque politique lié aux projets d'infrastructures majeures est ainsi fonction : du nombre de droits de veto des institutions; du fait que les groupes d'opposition ont ou non un droit de veto; du fait qu'un projet peut ou non être réalisé grâce à l'utilisation d'infrastructures existantes; de l'importance des risques environnementaux; et de la répartition des risques et des avantages entre différents gouvernements. Mes résultats montrent qu'un risque politique considérable est lié à chacun des cinq projets étudiés, mais que le type et l'ampleur de ce risque varient selon les projets. Market access for Canada's oil sands has been increasingly contested as proposals for new pipelines have become so controversial. This article develops a framework for political risk analysis and applies it to five pipeline proposals. The political risk to major infrastructure projects is a function of the number of institutional veto points; whether opposition groups have access to veto points; whether the project can take advantage of existing infrastructure; the salience of concentrated environmental risks; and the jurisdictional separation of risks and benefits. Each of the projects faces formidable political risks, but the risks vary in type and magnitude by project.
