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Understanding the impacts induced by cut-off thresholds and likelihood measures on confidence interval when applying GLUE approach
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Understanding the impacts induced by cut-off thresholds and likelihood measures on confidence interval when applying GLUE approach
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Journal Article
Understanding the impacts induced by cut-off thresholds and likelihood measures on confidence interval when applying GLUE approach
2022
Overview
Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimate (GLUE) approach is affected heavily by the choice of cut-off threshold (Tr) and likelihood measure. This work presents a research on investigating potential mechanisms behind the impacts of Tr and likelihood measure on 95% confidence interval estimated by GLUE (95 CI). Several typical likelihood measures are classified into five groups according to error models. Theoretical analysis reveals strict mathematical relationships between likelihood measures based on a same error model. Besides, a multiple attribute decision making (MADM) framework is proposed to assess overall quality of various geometrical features for 95 CI by integrating a range of interval indicators into a comprehensive score. Case studies indicate that (1) As Tr increases, 95 CI widens in low-level flow section, moves upward in recession phase of medium-level flow section and narrows in high-level flow section. The variations of interval indicators with Tr can be attributed to trade-off mechanism amongst the variations of geometrical features caused by widening, moving and narrowing trends of 95 CIs. (2) Much higher similarity in interval indicators and 95 CIs occurs for likelihood measures of a same group than those of different groups. (3) Formula of likelihood measure controls individuality of 95 CIs, error model of likelihood measure controls commonality of 95 CIs, and Tr acts as a regulator between individuality and commonality. (4) 95 CI shows similar responses to the choice of Tr and likelihood measure regardless of time span and climate variability. To summarize, this work offers further understanding and guidance in chose of Tr and likelihood measure for GLUE applications.
Publisher
Springer Nature B.V
