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Anticipating Solar Flares
by
Hudson, Hugh
in
Astronomy
/ Astrophysics and Astroparticles
/ Atmospheric Sciences
/ Emission
/ Emission measurements
/ Evolution
/ Fluxes
/ Observations and Techniques
/ Physics
/ Physics and Astronomy
/ Real time
/ Soft x rays
/ Solar flares
/ Space Exploration and Astronautics
/ Space Sciences (including Extraterrestrial Physics
/ X-rays
2025
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Anticipating Solar Flares
by
Hudson, Hugh
in
Astronomy
/ Astrophysics and Astroparticles
/ Atmospheric Sciences
/ Emission
/ Emission measurements
/ Evolution
/ Fluxes
/ Observations and Techniques
/ Physics
/ Physics and Astronomy
/ Real time
/ Soft x rays
/ Solar flares
/ Space Exploration and Astronautics
/ Space Sciences (including Extraterrestrial Physics
/ X-rays
2025
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Do you wish to request the book?
Anticipating Solar Flares
by
Hudson, Hugh
in
Astronomy
/ Astrophysics and Astroparticles
/ Atmospheric Sciences
/ Emission
/ Emission measurements
/ Evolution
/ Fluxes
/ Observations and Techniques
/ Physics
/ Physics and Astronomy
/ Real time
/ Soft x rays
/ Solar flares
/ Space Exploration and Astronautics
/ Space Sciences (including Extraterrestrial Physics
/ X-rays
2025
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Journal Article
Anticipating Solar Flares
2025
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Overview
Solar flares commonly have a “hot onset precursor event” (HOPE), detectable from soft X-ray observations. To detect this requires subtraction of pre-flare fluxes from the non-flaring Sun prior to the event, fitting an isothermal emission model to the flare excess fluxes by comparing the GOES passbands at 1 – 8 Å and 0.5 – 4 Å, and plotting the timewise evolution of the flare emission in a diagram of temperature vs. emission measure. The HOPE then appears as an initial “horizontal branch” in this diagram. It precedes the nonthermal impulsive phase of the flare and thus the flare peak in soft X-rays as well. We use this property to define a “flare anticipation index” (FAI), which can serve as an alert for observational programs aimed at solar flares based on near-real-time soft X-ray observations. This FAI gives lead times of a few minutes and produces very few false positive alerts, even for flare brightenings that are too weak to merit NOAA classification.
Publisher
Springer Netherlands,Springer Nature B.V
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