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How Unusual Was the Paleocene‐Eocene Thermal Maximum?
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Journal Article
How Unusual Was the Paleocene‐Eocene Thermal Maximum?
2026
Overview
The Paleocene‐Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was an extreme fluctuation of Earth's climate and a potential analog for future unmitigated anthropogenic climate change, but whose cause is debated. We show that fluctuations in Cenozoic benthic foraminiferal δ13 ${\\delta }^{13}$C and δ18 ${\\delta }^{18}$O follow a Laplace distribution. We present a simple model to explain this behavior: isotopic fluctuations respond to big and small “kicks” in the same way. We then use this to develop an expectation for the largest Cenozoic δ13 ${\\delta }^{13}$C and δ18 ${\\delta }^{18}$O fluctuations. While the other hyperthermals of the early Cenozoic are encompassed the expected range, we quantify that the PETM isotopic signatures were larger than these expectations, by 1.15 ± $\\pm $ 0.25‰ for δ18 ${\\delta }^{18}$O and 1.75 ± $\\pm $ 0.24‰ for δ13 ${\\delta }^{13}$C. This supports the view that the PETM is an extreme outlier amongst Cenozoic perturbations to the climate system and thereby was likely triggered by a large and unusual external perturbation.
Publisher
John Wiley & Sons, Inc
Subject
