Journal Article

A roadmap for rapid decarbonization

Rogelj, Joeri, Gaffney, Owen, Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Meinshausen, Malte, Rockström, Johan

2017

Overview

Emissions inevitably approach zero with a “carbon law” Although the Paris Agreement's goals ( 1 ) are aligned with science ( 2 ) and can, in principle, be technically and economically achieved ( 3 ), alarming inconsistencies remain between science-based targets and national commitments. Despite progress during the 2016 Marrakech climate negotiations, long-term goals can be trumped by political short-termism. Following the Agreement, which became international law earlier than expected, several countries published mid-century decarbonization strategies, with more due soon. Model-based decarbonization assessments ( 4 ) and scenarios often struggle to capture transformative change and the dynamics associated with it: disruption, innovation, and nonlinear change in human behavior. For example, in just 2 years, China's coal use swung from 3.7% growth in 2013 to a decline of 3.7% in 2015 ( 5 ). To harness these dynamics and to calibrate for short-term realpolitik, we propose framing the decarbonization challenge in terms of a global decadal roadmap based on a simple heuristic—a “carbon law”—of halving gross anthropogenic carbon-dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions every decade. Complemented by immediately instigated, scalable carbon removal and efforts to ramp down land-use CO 2 emissions, this can lead to net-zero emissions around mid-century, a path necessary to limit warming to well below 2°C.

• Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science,The American Association for the Advancement of Science
• Subject: Anthropogenic factors / Assessments / Carbon / Carbon dioxide / Carbon dioxide emissions / Decarbonization / Decarburizing / Economics / Emissions control / International law / Land use / Net zero / Nonlinear dynamics / Paris Agreement / POLICY FORUM / Ramps