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External environmental factors shaping spatiotemporal patterns of bark beetle outbreaks in Central Mexico
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External environmental factors shaping spatiotemporal patterns of bark beetle outbreaks in Central Mexico
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Journal Article
External environmental factors shaping spatiotemporal patterns of bark beetle outbreaks in Central Mexico
2025
Overview
Climate change is a key driver of bark beetle outbreaks (BBO), influencing their dynamics through complex interactions between climatic anomalies and topographic features. This study examines these dynamics using a Bayesian Generalized Additive Mixed Spatiotemporal Model implemented in R-INLA. We analyze the effects of Climate Moisture Index (CMI) anomalies, Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), Relative Slope Position (RSP), and Slope Aspect on BBO density (BBO-D) across multiple municipalities in Michoacán and Estado de México, Mexico, from 2009 to 2021. The model accounts for spatiotemporal effects and year-specific variations not explained by the explanatory variables. Our findings reveal that seasonal droughts have a delayed yet significant impact on BBO-D, with topographic features modulating these effects. The interaction between CMI anomalies and topographic variables regulates BBO dynamics, where certain conditions amplify outbreak density while others mitigate it. Notably, RSP and TWI influence the effect of CMI anomalies differently. The greatest increase in BBO-D occurs when the CMI anomaly in the coldest and driest month of the third year prior to the outbreak interacts with RSP. Conversely, the interaction between the CMI anomaly in the driest month of the year before the outbreak and TWI is linked to a decline in BBO-D. This suggests that areas with higher water accumulation or relatively high elevations experience greater outbreak density. Additionally, slope aspects at 180° and 270° further amplify BBO-D. These results emphasize the importance of considering both climatic anomalies and topographic conditions in understanding BBO patterns. Our approach provides a methodological framework for predicting future outbreaks under changing climatic conditions, aiding in proactive forest management strategies.
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Subject
