Journal Article

Slip Deficit Rate and Seismic Potential on Crustal Faults in Tibet

Xiong, Haicheng, Zhang, Guohong, Wang, Xuening, Qu, Chunyan, Shan, Xinjian, Li, Yanchuan

2025

Overview

Quantifying slip deficit rates on active faults in Tibet is essential for understanding fault kinematics and assessing seismic hazards, but has not been fully characterized, particularly on secondary faults. In this study, we integrate an updated interseismic Global Navigation Satellite Systems velocity field from 4,458 stations across continental China and its surroundings to calculate surface strain rates in Tibet, which we then use to invert for slip deficit rates on 263 crustal faults (383 segments). Our results reveal that ∼73% of strain rates are due to elastic strain accumulation on fault planes, and only a portion of the remaining strain rates may originate from unmodeled fault deformation. Quantitative calculations of seismic moment budgets on these fault segments indicate that they can produce earthquakes ranging from Mw 5.8 to 8.6, with 43 segments capable of generating earthquakes of Mw ≥ 7.5. Our findings provide a foundation for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Tibet. Plain Language Summary When assessing earthquake hazards on crustal faults, it's important to know how quickly energy is building up. In this study, we focus on the Tibetan Plateau, where the complexity of hundreds of faults makes it difficult to estimate strain accumulating using traditional models. To address this, we collected velocity data from 4,458 Global Navigation Satellite Systems stations and used those in Tibet to calculate a reliable strain rate map. We then applied a new method to invert strain rates for slip deficit rates (energy accumulation rates) on 263 active faults (383 segments) in Tibet. Our results indicate that ∼73% of the observed strain is due to slip deficit on fault planes, while the rest might be related to unmapped faults or other types of crustal deformation. We also estimated the potential magnitude of future earthquakes on these fault segments, finding that they could produce earthquakes ranging from Mw 5.8 to 8.6, with 43 segments having the potential to generate Mw 7.5+ earthquakes. Our findings help us better understand where and how large future earthquakes might be in Tibet. Key Points An updated interseismic Global Navigation Satellite Systems velocity solution comprising 4,458 sites across continental China About 73% of the surface strains are due to elastic strain accumulation on fault planes Quantifying slip deficit rates on 263 faults (383 segments) indicates they are capable of Mw 5.8–8.6 earthquakes

• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc,Wiley
• Subject: Accumulation / Crustal deformation / Deformation / Earthquakes / Elastic deformation / Fault lines / Faults / Geological hazards / Global navigation satellite system / Hazard assessment / Kinematics / Navigation / Navigation satellites / Navigation systems / Navigational satellites / Satellites / Segments / Seismic activity / Seismic hazard / Slip / Strain rate / Velocity / Velocity distribution