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Long Term Global Ionospheric Total Electron Content Trend Analysis
Long Term Global Ionospheric Total Electron Content Trend Analysis
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Long Term Global Ionospheric Total Electron Content Trend Analysis
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Long Term Global Ionospheric Total Electron Content Trend Analysis
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Long Term Global Ionospheric Total Electron Content Trend Analysis
Long Term Global Ionospheric Total Electron Content Trend Analysis
Journal Article

Long Term Global Ionospheric Total Electron Content Trend Analysis

2024
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Overview
Simulations based on physical models of the thermosphere‐ionosphere system suggest that the ionosphere will sink as the thermosphere cools and contracts in response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. As a consequence, long‐term trends can be expected in ionospheric parameters such as: total electron content (TEC), the critical frequency of the F2 layer, foF2, and its peak height, hmF2. Since early 1990s, foF2 and hmF2, though to a lesser extent, have been widely analyzed to find these trends. This study shows long‐term TEC trends for the period 1999–2023 from available global International GNSS service TEC maps. Using F30, F10.7 or MgII as proxies to filter out the effect of solar EUV, the trends are negative, not only for the mean global value but also for most regions with very few exceptions. This would align with the greenhouse effect hypothesis, even though our results show higher negative trend values than expected theoretically. Plain Language Summary The Earth's ionosphere presents long‐term trends besides regular changes such as daily and seasonal, and irregular variations of transient character. Many studies suggest that the long‐term increase in greenhouse gas concentrations will produce a global cooling in the upper atmosphere together with the global warming in the troposphere. Therefore, long‐term trends can be expected in the ionosphere total electron content (TEC), the critical frequency of the F2 layer, foF2, and its peak height, hmF2, which are the three most important ionospheric parameters used in several applications. TEC measurements have the advantage over other parameters that characterize the upper atmosphere having 24 × 365 worldwide coverage thanks to the continuous International GNSS service (IGS). Trends in the ionosphere are much weaker than those associated with the solar cycle, thus its effects were removed using different solar EUV radiation proxies. The trends are negative, as expected, not only for the mean global value case but also for most of the regional values with very few exceptions. Key Points Trend depends on the solar EUV proxy used for filtering being most negative with MgII and non‐significant with SN Based on recommended solar proxies, noon total electron content (TEC) global average reveal a negative significant trend along 1999–2023 The negative trend of the global TEC at noon is much more pronounced than the theoretical prediction