Journal Article

The past and future of modeling forest dynamics: from growth and yield curves to forest landscape models

Jin, Wenchi, Lischke, Heike, Thompson, Frank R., Yang, Jian, He, Hong S., Gustafson, Eric J., Wang, Wen J., Thompson, Jonathan R., Shifley, Stephen R., Dijak, William D.

2017

Overview

Context Quantitative models of forest dynamics have followed a progression toward methods with increased detail, complexity, and spatial extent. Objectives We highlight milestones in the development of forest dynamics models and identify future research and application opportunities. Methods We reviewed milestones in the evolution of forest dynamics models from the 1930s to the present with emphasis on forest growth and yield models and forest landscape models We combined past trends with emerging issues to identify future needs. Results Historically, capacity to model forest dynamics at tree, stand, and landscape scales was constrained by available data for model calibration and validation; computing capacity; model applicability to real-world problems; and ability to integrate biological, social, and economic drivers of change. As computing and data resources improved, a new class of spatially explicit forest landscape models emerged. Conclusions We are at a point of great opportunity in development and application of forest dynamics models. Past limitations in computing capacity and in data suitable for model calibration or evaluation are becoming less restrictive. Forest landscape models, in particular, are ready to transition to a central role supporting forest management, planning, and policy decisions. Recommendations Transitioning forest landscape models to a central role in applied decision making will require greater attention to evaluating performance; building application support staffs; expanding the included drivers of change, and incorporating metrics for social and economic inputs and outputs.

• Publisher: Springer Netherlands,Springer Nature B.V
• Subject: Biomedical and Life Sciences / Calibration / Complexity / Computing costs / Data processing / Decision making / Dynamics / Ecology / Economics / Environmental Management / Forest ecosystems / Forest growth / Forest management / Forests / Identification methods / issues and policy / Landscape / Landscape Ecology / Landscape/Regional and Urban Planning / landscapes / Life Sciences / Nature Conservation / planning / Quantitative analysis / Review Article / Social behavior / Sustainable Development / trees