Journal Article

Projection of large-scale atmospheric circulations over three poles and their remote climatic influences under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels

Yang, Yuxiang, Chen, Bing, Wei, Ting

2024

Overview

The Arctic, Antarctica and the Tibetan Plateau in the high mountains of Asia are called the Earth’s three poles and have exhibited the most intense warming worldwide in recent decades. The Arctic Oscillation (AO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and South Asia High (SAH) are the most influential and stable large-scale systems affecting the three poles. The global carbon neutrality targets (1.5 °C/2°C), which promote sustainable development, and the future evolution of these large-scale systems will have implications for global climate projections at the three poles. In this study, our evaluation revealed the satisfactory performance of the multi-initial-value ensemble mean of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in capturing the observed AO, AAO and SAH patterns. Based on the simulations derived from the CESM Low Warming Experiment, the warming in the three poles will be significantly greater than the global mean when the global warming reaches 1.5 °C/2°C. Under the 1.5 °C global warming level (GWL), a stronger center of action over the North Atlantic will lead to an enhanced influence of the AO on the surface air temperature (SAT) in northern Europe. However, all of the centers of action for the AO and its remote influence on the SAT in the Northern Hemisphere will be weaker when global warming reaches 2 °C. For the AAO, the pair of centers of action in the southern pole and Southern Ocean will weaken under the 1.5 °C scenario, leading to a stronger influence of the AAO on the SAT in the Antarctic Peninsula and a weaker effect in East Antarctica and its surrounding seas. In contrast, the eastward movement of the centers of action over the Southern Ocean under the 2 °C scenario will weaken the teleconnection between the AAO and summer SAT across the Antarctic. During the 21st century, over the third pole, the SAH will move southeastward with significantly increased interannual variability. The change in the SAH at the 1.5 °C GWL will contribute to a warmer summer and less precipitation in Northeast China. Under the 2 °C scenario, the greater movement and strengthening of the SAH will lead to more precipitation and cooler summers in the Yangtze River. Our results suggest that the AO/AAO/SAH are related to the regional climate in a carbon-neutral world. This study has important implications for decadal climate predictions in a future 1.5 °C/2°C warmer world, offering insights into the associated climate risks across the three poles.

• Publisher: Springer Vienna,Springer
• Subject: Air pollution / air temperature / Antarctic Oscillation / Antarctic region / Antarctica / Aquatic Pollution / Arctic region / Atmospheric Sciences / carbon / China / climate / Climate cycles / Climatology / Earth and Environmental Science / Earth Sciences / Earth system science / Environmental aspects / evolution / Global warming / Northern European region / Simulation methods / South Asia / summer / Sustainable development / Waste Water Technology / Water Management / Water Pollution Control / Yangtze River